| Abstract: | 由於國內經濟結構已漸漸朝向完全民營化的方向邁進,公營企業將漸次移轉民營化,因此民營企業公司的經營狀況,景氣與否,將影響國家整體經濟發展趨勢,民營企業公司在平等,自由競爭的原則下,對許多具經營規模的大公司,如何預先測知,掌握經濟景氣動向,提供公司經營決策的參考---未雨綢繆,準備因應之道。所以、掌握市場先機---景氣預測,將愈重要和被重視。 本研究將在不同產業之間,選擇較具規模的民營企業公司為主。以問卷調查方式,蒐集不同產業公司調查;其是否投入預測工作、預測內容、性質、方法及參與人員、預測結果資料的用途、運用、預測週期;公司內部對預測結果的滿意程度及未來對預測發展的計畫。依此資料來分析、探討國內不同產業,公司對預測的需求面及預測對公司的重要性。 另外,對預測人才供給面,選擇大專院校法商學院,應用科學院系中,以問卷調查方法,調查各院系對預測課程的安排,主要授課內容,其目的是探討:(一)學校是否有開預測課程,教課時數;(二)由那一系所開課,修課學生數;(三)預測課程內容,方法選擇;(四)軟體應用選擇; (五)授課基本教課書之選擇;(六)未來開預測課之意向。此調查結果,分析國內提供預測專業人才的供給面。 由以上國內公司企業對預測工作投入發展的情況---需求面及大專院校培育預測專業人才的供給面,兩者關係來分析大專院校專業人才的培育是否迎合公司企業對預測專業的需求及分析國內預測領域的發展潛力;並以民營企業所做預測實例,探討預測之重要性。
Because of the trend of Privatization, many public enterprises are converting into private ones. In the future, the operations and stabilization of private enterprises will have closer relationship to our economic development. Under the rules of free market, it`s very important for many large-scale companies to forecast the future trends of business cycles in order to form the best operating policy. Business cycle forecasting will become more and more important. In our study, we choose some private and public enterprises (with large scale) in different industries, using questionnaires to investigate the application of forecasting in their companies. These items include: contents of forecasting, forecasting methods, forecasting analysts, applications of forecasting results, forecasting cycles, etc. We use these data to analyze the demand side and the importance of forecasting in the companies. About the supply side of forecasting man power, we also use questionnaires to survey the arrangements and contents of forecasting lessons in colleges and universities. We intend to discuss the following: (a) If there is any forecasting lesson in undergraduate & graduate school, and, if there is, how many credits do the course required? (b) Which department or graduate school has forecasting lesson? How many students take the course? (c) What are the content and teaching method of forecasting lesson? (d) What kind of computer software is used in forecasting lesson? (e) What kind of textbooks is used? (f) The intention of providing forecasting lesson in the future? |
