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    题名: 供應鏈風險評估模式建立與風險管理策略運用之研究
    作者: 林我聰
    贡献者: 資管系
    关键词: 供應鏈風險管理;供應鏈風險評估模式;供應鏈風險管理策略;模糊失效模式與效應分析法;模糊決策實驗室分析法;分析網路程序法;系統動態模擬
    Supply Chain Risk Management;Supply Chain Risk Assessment Model;Supply Chain Risk Management Strategy;Fuzzy Failure Modes and Effects Analysis;Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory;Analytic Network Process;System Dynamics
    日期: 2013.05
    上传时间: 2014-02-11 14:47:22 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 產業分工、企業全球化等趨勢下，企業與顧客、供應商分布在不同國家及區域，形成一個複雜的 供應鏈網路，導致供應鏈風險較以往大幅提高。企業如何做好供應鏈風險評估及如何降低供應鏈中風 險事件所帶來之衝擊，已是目前聚焦的研究重點。過去供應鏈風險管理相關研究著重於單一階段風險 因子的探討，缺乏以整體供應鏈架構下進行研究，且假設風險因子間為獨立、互不關連，並未考慮整 體供應鏈網路風險因子關聯、因果及連動特性，因而無法正確評估風險事件發生時所帶來的衝擊影響 程度，自然無法進一步有效擬定出適當因應的風險管理策略。有鑑於此，本計畫針對「如何有效評估 供應鏈風險程度」及「如何有效減低供應鏈風險發生之衝擊」兩個主要問題進行研究。 本計畫第一年針對「如何有效評估供應鏈風險程度」進行研究，擬提出一供應鏈風險評估模式以 有效評估供應鏈的風險程度。首先透過文獻彙總確認出供應鏈的風險因子，並以SCOR 模式（Supply Chain Operations Reference Model）的架構將其歸類為採購（Source）、製造 (Make)、配送（Deliver） 與回收（Return）各階段產生之風險因子；接著藉由風險因子的發生機率、衝擊性、難檢度∕失效偵 測度（Detestability），應用模糊失效模式與效應分析法（Fuzzy Failure Modes and Effects Analysis，Fuzzy FMEA）確認出重要∕關鍵風險因子；再使用模糊決策實驗室分析法（Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory，Fuzzy DEMATEL）建構出供應鏈流程中前述風險因子間之關連性；由於風險因 子間具有相互影響關係，本計畫並採用分析網路程序法（Analytic Network Process，ANP）計算風險 因子的相關權重。藉由上述步驟建立出供應鏈風險評估模式，協助決策者有效進行風險因子與供應鏈 的風險評估。 本計畫第二年針對「如何有效減低供應鏈風險發生之衝擊」進行研究。首先利用第一年所建構的 供應鏈風險因子架構，以系統動態模擬方法（System Dynamics，SD）建立一供應鏈風險管理策略評 估模擬模式；藉由此模擬模式可針對不同供應鏈風險管理策略進行測試，以觀察不同策略對各種風險 因子的控制及降低對供應鏈衝擊的效果，最後針對各風險因子彙整分析出對應之最佳風險管理策略。 本計畫預期所建構出之供應鏈風險評估模式與供應鏈風險管理策略評估模擬模式，可有效協助決 策者進行供應鏈的風險評估，了解目前所處供應鏈潛在的風險程度；繼而針對風險因子進行風險管理 策略可行性的評估，檢驗各個策略降低風險的有效性，以輔助企業擬定符合本身需求的風險管理策 略，降低或避免風險發生時對企業及供應鏈之衝擊。
    Due to the division of labor in industries and globalization, a company, its customers and its suppliers are located in different areas and countries to form a complicated and more risky supply chain. How to assess the risks in supply chains and how to mitigate their impacts are important research issues. The purpose of this research is to explore the phenomenon of risk management and risk management strategies in supply chains. The past literatures of supply chain risk management focus on the risk factors of single stage of supply chain flow and assume the risk factors are independent, and also ignore to discuss the risk in complete supply chain flow framework. However relationships between risk factors in supply chain display cause-and-effect relationships. The lack of consideration for these relationships will lead to incorrect measuring risks and applying improper risk management strategies in supply chains. Therefore this research concentrates on two topics: how to effectively assess risks and how to effectively mitigate risk impacts in supply chains. This research will be a two-year project to study two main issues to reflect upon the above requests includes risk assessment of supply chains and risk management strategy adoption. In the first year, for risk assessment of supply chains, this research will propose an effectively risk assessment model. Firstly, risk factors in supply chains will be collected from literature, and then further classifies these factors into source factors, make factors, deliver factors and return factors in accordance with SCOR Model (Supply Chain Operations Reference Model) framework. Secondly, Fuzzy Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (Fuzzy FMEA), Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Fuzzy DEMATEL) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) will be adopted and integrated to develop a supply chain risk assessment model. In the second year, for adoption of risk management strategies, the System Dynamics (SD) method and the risk factor framework of supply chains developed in first year will be used to construct a risk management strategy evaluation simulation model to evaluate the performance of risk management strategies. The risk management strategies including collaborative strategy, avoid strategy, control strategy and flexibility strategy will be tested by the proposed simulation model, and the proper strategy for each risk factor will be found. The risk assessment model and risk management strategy evaluation simulation model proposed in this research can be as useful tools for managers to assess risks and to select proper risk management strategies in supply chains.
    關聯: 國科會
    NSC101-2410-H004-009-MY2
    数据类型: report
    显示于类别:[資訊管理學系] 國科會研究計畫

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