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| Title: | 智慧型手機台灣供應鏈股價報酬率之預測性研究 |
| Authors: | 翁甄縈 |
| Contributors: | 顏錫銘
翁甄縈 |
| Keywords: | 智慧型手機
供應鏈
概念股
資訊移轉
Smartphone
Supply Chain
Concept Stock
Information Transfer |
| Date: | 2011 |
| Issue Date: | 2014-02-10 14:48:08 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 近年來，各智慧型手機的概念股經常成為證券分析師以及投顧公司報告中建議的投資標的，一般的新聞媒體、報章雜誌以及其他和投資相關的財經節目也常以智慧型手機相關類股作為節目討論主題，但是投資智慧型手機相關類股是否真的可以讓投資人從中獲得異常報酬，是本研究想知道的，因此本研究利用事件研究法做實證研究，以確認智慧型手機品牌大廠和其供應鏈公司股價間，真的有一定程度的相關性，並且觀察其影響的速度及程度，進而推測是否可利用智慧型手機品牌大廠之公司股價，直接對該供應鏈公司股價報酬作預測。
實證結果發現，Apple Inc.供應鏈公司股價和Apple Inc.公司股價無論是正事件日或負事件日當天皆為正相關，兩者間之連結最為緊密。而HTC供應鏈和Nokia供應鏈之公司股價，只有於正事件日當天和其智慧型手機品牌大廠之公司股價為正相關，並且只有HTC供應鏈的公司股價，可利用HTC公司股價作預測，而其影響對於供應鏈中屬於大型股或中小型股之供應商公司股價並沒有顯著差異。RIM供應鏈和Samsung供應鏈的公司股價則是於正事件日和負事件日當天和其智慧型手機品牌大廠之公司股價皆沒有明顯的相關性。而觀察台灣的智慧型手機市場以及查詢聯合知識庫可發現，Apple Inc.、HTC和Nokia較多人使用且為新聞報導中較常被提及的，其供應鏈也較常成為投資標的之建議，RIM鮮少被大眾媒體報導，而Samsung大部分手機零組件皆由其國內子公司自行生產，而且其產品非常多樣化，因此投資人要將Samsung和其台灣供應商作連結，相對來說較不容易。另外，在負事件當中只有Apple Inc.供應鏈之公司股價和Apple Inc.公司股價有正相關，其他智慧型手機品牌大廠皆沒有明顯相關性，本研究試著觀察是否因負面新聞種類的不同，而造成此實證結果，但並未得到理想的結果及解答。
In recent years, concept stocks of various Smartphone makers have often been the investment targets suggested by the securities analysts and in the reports of investment companies. The media and other financial programs related to investment usually tackle the Smartphone related stocks as newsworthy topics. This study wonders whether the investors can really obtain abnormal returns by investing into these stocks. Therefore, by conducting an empirical study using an event study approach, it validates the correlation to a certain extent between the stock prices of big Smartphone brand manufacturers and their supply chain companies, and observes the influence speed and degree. Furthermore, it speculates whether the stock price of the big Smartphone brand manufacturers can be used to make a direct prediction of the stock returns of the supply chain companies.
As shown in the empirical results, the stock prices of Apple Inc. and its supply chain companies are positively correlated whether on the positive event days or negative event days, indicating their close connection. However, the stock prices of HTC and Nokia supply chain companies only show a positive correlation with the corresponding Smartphone brand manufacturers in the positive event days. Moreover, only the stock price of HTC supply chain companies can be predicted by that of the HTC Company, while it doesn’t show any significant difference in terms of the influence on the stock prices of the large and small sized suppliers. As for the stock prices of RIM and Samsung companies, there is no significant correlation with the stock price of the Smartphone brand manufacturers with the positive and negative event days. By observing Taiwan’s Smartphone market and searching in UDN, it’s found that Apple Inc., HTC and Nokia are the most popular and frequently mentioned in the news reports, and their supply chains are often suggested as investment objects. RIM is rarely reported by mass media. When it comes to Samsung, most phone accessories are manufactured by its own subsidiaries in Korea, which manufacture diverse products. Therefore, it is not so easy for the investors to link Samsung with its suppliers in Taiwan. In addition, during the negative events, positive correlation only exists between the stock prices of Apple Inc. and its supply chain companies, which is not the case with other Smartphone brand manufacturers. This study attempts to observe whether the empirical result is derived from the difference among negative news types, but no desired results and answers are obtained. |
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二、英文文獻
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
99357036
100 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099357036 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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