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    题名: 從世代差異解釋恆常所得消費假說
    Permanent Income Hypothesis and generation difference
    作者: 侯竣譯
    Hou, Chun Yi
    贡献者: 郭炳伸
    林信助
    Kuo, Biing Shen
    Lin, Shinn Juh
    侯竣譯
    Hou, Chun Yi
    关键词: 消費
    追蹤性資料
    景氣波動
    Consumption
    Panel data
    Economic fluctuation
    日期: 2010
    上传时间: 2013-09-05 16:50:26 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 恆常所得假說認為消費者依終生期望所得來做消費規劃，不受短暫性所得變動而改變消費。然實際資料顯示：在景氣循環過程中，暫時性所得變動確會影響消費變動，顯示該假說實際上不成立。本文利用華人家庭動態資料庫，配合追蹤性資料的計量方法來進行檢測該假說。實證結果發現：消費行為違反恆常所得假說。接著加入景氣變換來解釋消費違反恆常所得假說導因於流動性限制。最後利用追蹤性資料的特性，從世代差異的角度看消費者違反恆常所得假說，發現不同世代受流動性限制的影響效果不同，隨著年齡增加，消費者違反恆常所得假說的情況愈弱。
    Permanent income hypothesis(PIH) states that consumers make choices regarding their longer-term income expectations. Transitory income variety could not affect consumption. However, the reality is that consumption would be affected by transitory income during economic fluctuation, and this fact violates the hypothesis. Due to this reason, this paper use Taiwanese panel data : PSFD(Panel Study of Family Dynamics) and econometric model to test the hypothesis. In the empirical results, we concluded: Taiwanese consumption violated PIH. Then generation difference was incorporated into the model to explain the degree of violation of PIH. And the result explained that the generation difference exists in the degree of PIH’s violation.
    參考文獻: 郭炳伸．鍾景婷 (2002), “消費行為受資金流動性限制嗎? 經濟景氣的不對稱效果”, 經濟論文, 30(4), 443–472
    黃朝熙 (1999a), “恆常所得與流動性限制-一個時間數列資料的實證研究”, 經濟論文, 27, 23–48
    黃朝熙 (1999b), “台灣消費函數之時間序列實證研究-消費對當前所得的回應”, 經濟論文, 24, 23–48
    詹維玲 (2009), “臺灣生命循環消費與退休”, 臺灣經濟預測與政策, 39(2), 129–159
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    Bond, S.R. (2002), “Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice”, Portuguese Economic Journal, 1(2), 141–162.
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    Keane, M.P. and Runkle, D.E. (1992), “On the estimation of panel-data models with serial correlation when instruments are not strictly exogenous”, Journal of Business &
    Economic Statistics, 10(1), 1–9.
    Parker, J. and Preston, B. (2002), “Precautionary saving and consumption fluctuations”, National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.
    Serlenga, Laura (2002), “Three alternative approaches to test the permanent income hypothesis in dynamic panels”, series 0005, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Metodi Matematici-Universita di Bari, URL: http://ideas.repec.org/p/bai/series/wp0005.html.
    Shea, J. (1995), “Myopia, liquidity constraints, and aggregate consumption: a simple test”, Journal of money, credit and banking, 27(3), 798–805.
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營與貿易研究所
    98351018
    99
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098351018
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文

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