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    题名: 尋找可耕地有限國家之生質燃料發展策略的利基－全球可計算一般均衡模型之應用分析
    Find the advantage of biofuel policy for limited arable land countries-global computable general equilibrium model
    作者: 鄧壬德
    Deng, Ren Der
    贡献者: 李慧琳
    鄧壬德
    Deng, Ren Der
    关键词: 生質燃料
    生質酒精
    生質柴油
    全球可計算一般均衡模型
    日期: 2009
    上传时间: 2013-09-05 14:18:32 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 許多國家視生質燃料之發展為解決能源安全問題的方法。大部份的國家往往會訂定一個目標年並設定生質燃料的使用量目標。美國設定2008年時要達到90億加侖生質燃料的使用量目標，而2022年時產量要逐步達到360億加侖；歐盟訂定生質燃料占運輸部門總使用燃料比例於2010年時要達到5.75%之目標；日本設定2010年時其生質燃料產量達到50萬公秉油當量；台灣則是設定生質酒精及生質柴油之2010年使用量分別需達到100-300萬公秉及10萬公秉。各國為達成其生質燃料使用量目標，若僅考慮第一代生質燃料技術，勢必需要足夠的土地種植能源作物，方能滿足生質燃料目標量。可耕地有限的國家若執意發展生質燃料，該國是否有充足的耕地可供生產其設定之生質燃料使用量？若透過國外進口生質燃料或是作物以達成其使用量目標，其在能源安全方面仍是依賴國外供給。此外，生質燃料的發展將造成土地利用改變與農產品價格及產量變動，進而影響全球農業貿易。
    本研究應用Hertel(1997)全球貿易可計算一般均衡模型(Global Trade Analysis Project，簡稱GTAP)，並加入土地利用模型，以探討可耕地受限國家發展生質燃料之利基所在，包括糧食供需、貿易與糧價、土地利用、私人家計單位消費、福利等所受到的影響。同時，我們也設計一個指標(Rij)來衡量一國達成其生質燃料發展目標之潛力，並利用該指標篩選出所謂的「可耕地受限國家」作為本研究分析之重點國家。
    本研究模擬結果發現，以第一代生質燃料技術作考量之下，「可耕地受限國家」面對各地區生質燃料的發展，將會造成「可耕地受限國家」的農業市場產出、價格與貿易量的變化，例如：可作為提煉生質燃料作物的小麥、其他穀類作物、油脂作物因應各地區生質燃料發展而使得各地區普遍產出增加，而這些作物作為能源用途之需求增加也普遍導致其價格上升。各地區農作物貿易受到國際間相對價格改變之影響，例如：荷蘭的食品與菸酒部門在各地區發展生質燃料後需面對漲幅較國產為大的小麥進口價格，因此，其對國產小麥的需求增幅相對高於對進口品小麥之需求增幅。
    本文模擬結果亦顯示：(1)「可耕地受限國家」也面臨農耕地受限制而有生質燃料「與糧爭地」的現象，例如：荷蘭的小麥部門在增加生產過程中，願意支付更高的地租以吸引更多土地投入小麥之種植，因此，排擠掉其他農業部門的土地使用；(2)「可耕地受限國家」之私人家計單位亦間接受到「與人爭糧」的影響，例如：荷蘭的食品與菸酒部門面對小麥的價格上升，其生產成本增加，進而影響其產品價格，最終造成荷蘭私人家計單位對食品與菸酒的消費減少；(3)各「可耕地受限國家」的福利普遍皆降低，例如：義大利福利水準惡化最為嚴重，減少了276.55百萬美元，其次為德國，其福利減少205.5百萬美元。
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    96258010
    98
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    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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