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| Title: | 直接與間接投資商用不動產風險與績效衡量
The evaluation of investment risk and performance of commercial real estate market |
| Authors: | 徐偉棋 |
| Contributors: | 林左裕
Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
徐偉棋 |
| Keywords: | 商用不動產
風險值
動態風險值
回溯測試
投資績效
Commercial Real Estate Markets
Value at Risk
Dynamic VaR
Back Testing
Investment Performance |
| Date: | 2009 |
| Issue Date: | 2013-09-03 14:52:55 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 投資決策時，除了關注資產的報酬外，更不可忽略風險。而風險的衡量上，一般常用風險值來衡量投資所面臨的風險，這是由於風險值具有動態管理、量化風險等優點。而國內研究對於不動產風險值的文獻上多以住宅市場為主，對於商用不動產較無著墨，是故本研究欲從不同風險值模型探討投資商用不動產的風險值，並分為直接投資(北市商用不動產)與間接投資(REITs)商用不動產兩個不同次市場。實證結果發現直接投資商用不動產風險值高於間接投資商用不動產。其次，本研究試圖比較靜態與動態風險值模型在估計不動產風險值的行為表現，經回溯測試(Back Testing)檢驗後發現，發現兩個模型衡量不動產風險值時，表現差異性不大。最後，本研究並以夏普績效(Sharp Ratio)來衡量直接投資與間接投資商用不動產的投資績效，研究期間為2007年6月至2009年3月。實證結果發現，直接投資商用不動產在景氣衰退與股市劇跌時具有抗跌性；而間接投資商用不動產則與股市發生同時下跌的現象，此現象可能是我國REITs具有代理問題(Agency Problem)與系統風險(Systematic Risk)等問題所致。因此，本研究建議投資者投資REITs時，應同時考量REITs存在上述的風險與問題，以避免投資上的損失。
When making investment strategies, aside from considering the return of investment, one cannot ignore the risk factors. In measuring risk, we usually use VaR (Value at Risk) to calculate the risks of investment because, among other reasons, VaR has dynamic and quantifiable advantages. Most of the studies regarding real estate investment risk in Taiwan focus on residential markets; thus, this paper investigates commercial real estate markets using different VaR models to determine the degree of risk, distinguishing further between direct investment markets and indirect investment markets like REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust). The result of this study reveals that direct real estate investment involves higher risks than indirect real estate investment. Furthermore, there was hardly any difference in investment risk when using either static or dynamic VaR models in the computations after using Back Testing. Finally, this study employs Sharp Ratio to calculate commercial real estate investment performance covering the period between June 2007 and March 2009. Direct real estate investment shows firmness during economic downturns or stock market crashes unlike indirect real estate investment like REITs which follows stock market trends. This phenomenon may be due to Agency Problem and Systematic Risk in Taiwan’s REITs market. Therefore this study suggests that when investing in REITs one has to take into account the risks and problems in order to avoid unnecessary investment losses. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
97257015
98 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0972570151 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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