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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/56245
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| Title: | 亞太「經濟安全」問題研究---演進與趨勢(I) |
| Other Titles: | Issues of Economic-Strategic Security in Asia Pacific---Developments and Trends |
| Authors: | 李瓊莉 |
| Contributors: | 行政院國家科學委員會
國立政治大學國際關係研究中心 |
| Keywords: | 亞太;經濟安全 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| Issue Date: | 2012-11-30 15:08:21 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本案原擬於第一年先就撰寫進度較落後的章篇進行補強，然而，有鑑於最新情勢之發展將嚴重影響亞太經濟安全脈動，在本案執行的第一年間，仍密切觀察最新發展，其中以兩議題最為相關：G20峰會之發展與討論情形、兩岸ECFA之簽定。 為因應全球金融海嘯所造成的經濟衰退，美國布希政府將G20財長會議層級提升至領袖高峰會，G20領袖高峰會首度在華盛頓召開(2008年11月15日)，2009年4月第二次G20高峰會在倫敦召開，第三次則在匹茲堡舉行(2009年)，確立G20成為全球最主要金融暨經濟論壇之地位。第四次G20高峰會於2010年6月26-27日在多倫多召開。 前三次高峰會議主要的成果包括：1) 各國採擴張性總體經濟政策、啟動財政擴張(fiscal expansion)及貨幣政策工具等，以刺激經濟復甦；2) 加強金融治理，包括促成金融穩定委員會(Financial Stability Board, FSB); 並強化國際金融機構金融International Financial Institutions(IFIs)放款之把關。 這四次會議召開的時間點正值歐洲國家因舉債所造成的政府財政危機、歐元貶值、經濟復甦在新興市經濟家與已開發國家不同溫的紊亂情況，在新興經濟國得利於之前的擴張刺激政策，出現普遍過熱現象，而已開發國家則表現低溫的通貨緊縮現象。 對中國大陸官方而言，ECFA是以經促統的重要一環，(中國大陸民間鮮有對此議題發聲)；對台灣官方而言，ECFA是整體經濟戰略的重要一環，同時在兩岸關係上開啟了雙邊談判模式；對台灣民眾而言，多數關切聚焦在其對兩岸經貿關係未來發展之影響，側重雙邊互獲的市場利益分析。然而，ECFA效應超過兩岸，超過台海，對區域穩定與兩岸對外關係亦有所影響。 1)、對東協國家而言，最先感受到的是政治氣氛的轉變，並出現兩難心態，一則樂見兩岸關係改善，使其得以避免昔日在北京與台北之間「二擇一」之政治為難；一則憂「一中」效應擴張至南海，兩岸結合更強化中共對南海主權之聲張，對南海區域安全及東協南海主權聲索國之安全利益，造成威脅。 2)、接著東協國家將開始意識到台灣將與其在中國市場上的競爭白熱化，、同時台商在中國大陸的投資誘因將高於到東南亞投資，東亞經濟結構即將出現變化。基本上，兩岸經貿依存度愈高，大中華經濟整合性愈大，東協在同等產業的競爭力愈不被看好。加上北京以經促統的讓利心態，東協國家在中國大陸的競爭優勢，缺乏政治因素加持。 3)、處於弱勢的經濟危機感將使東協國家謹慎思考與台灣簽署特殊的經貿關係安排，即所謂的FTA，在政治因素的限制下，東協國家中的WTO會員國可能以兩岸ECFA的模式，爭取北京的諒解，與台北洽簽FTA，非WTO會員的東協國家，則仍有賴台灣經濟技術援助來提升與台灣之雙邊關係。
The newest developments in global and regional political economy issues will have strong implications to the security-economic nexus in Asia Pacific. Thus instead of reporting the progress of book writing for this project, I would like to highlight two major developments in the past year: G20 Summits and the signing of cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). Both issues would have strong impacts on economic-security order in the Asia-Pacific region. In response to global financial tsunami, Bush government upgraded the G20 meetings to the level of State Summit. The first G20 Summit was held in Washington DC in November 15, 2008. Few months later, the second one was held in London in April, 2009. The third G20 Summit was held in Pittsburg in September 2009. Conclusions for the first three meetings were 1) recognizing G20 as a major forum for global financial and economic governance; 2) encouraging individual members to adopt expansion policy for economic recovery; 3) strengthening global financial institutions. The fourth and fifth G20 Summits are schedule in June and November 2010. This project will take conclusions reached in these two meetings into account as they might be critical in shaping future economic security order in Asia Pacific. As for the signing of the cross-Strait ECFA, to Beijing, it is a political means for future unification. Nevertheless, to Taipei, it is a major step in Taiwan’s global economic strategy. To regional countries, particularly to ASEAN member states, the effects go beyond cross-Strait issues. It will affect regional stability and economic-security dynamics. The security-strategic externalities of cross-Strait ECFA have three folds. First, ASEAN member states on the one hand might no longer situate in a political dilemma of choosing either side of the Taiwan Strait. However, on the other hand, they are uneasy if Beijing and Taipei jointly defend sovereignty over South China Sea. Second, Taiwan now has the upper hand in Chinese market. In contrast, the political incentives of China’s charm offensive strategy to ASEAN have reduced. Thirdly, Taipei and ASEAN member states might sign bilateral FTAs under the WTO framework which has been adopted in cross-Strait ECFA. |
| Relation: | 基礎研究
學術補助
研究期間:9808~ 9907
研究經費:616仟元
行政院國家科學委員會
計畫編號NSC98-2410-H004-067-MY2 |
| Data Type: | report |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際關係研究中心] 國科會研究計畫
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