政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/54671
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 113822/144841 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51785875      線上人數 : 326
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧:
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號",以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋,建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位,可獲得較完整資料
  • 進階搜尋
    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54671


    題名: 改革開放後天津產業結構的發展與其影響因素
    Tianjin’s industrial structure development and its influencing factors after the reforms and opening
    作者: 葛崇高
    Koh, Chung Liang
    貢獻者: 黃智聰
    Huang, Jr Tsung
    葛崇高
    Koh, Chung Liang
    關鍵詞: 天津
    產業結構
    工業化
    產業升級
    共整和ARDL
    Tianjin
    industrial structure
    industrialization
    industrial upgrading
    ARDL with cointegration
    日期: 2011
    上傳時間: 2012-10-30 11:30:18 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 天津經過百年來的努力發展,以及改革開放後濱海新區在「十一五規劃」被納入國家發展戰略,不但成為中國大陸高收入的城市,亦是眾多外資亟欲前往的投資地點。從天津三級產業結構的觀察,可以發現雖然目前天津的第二、三級產業的分布仍與先進國家有所落差,但整體來說,仍是逐漸從二三一的產業結構往三二一的產業結構發展。但1997年至2006年仍發生工業化現象,即工業部門產值比重增加。這段時間亦伴隨產業升級,使得產業結構從消費財產業轉成為資本財產業。由政策上觀察,此結果主要與天津濱海新區的發展關係最密切。
    從本研究的ARDL時間序列模型的估計中發現,造成天津工業化的最主要因素為資本勞動比的提升與貿易依存度的增加,而造成產業升級的主要因素則為外資與財政的科技支出。天津政府在經濟迅速發展的條件下,調節產業結構的均衡發展亦是重要任務,使得天津以及中國大陸其他城市能夠早日進入已開發國家的產業結構模式。
    After centuries of efforts to develop and the Binhai New Area being writing into national development strategies in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" after reform and open-up, Tianjin has not only become the high-income cities in mainland China, but also a location that many foreign investment is anxious to go. According to the observation of Thrice Industrial structure in Tianjin, there is a big gap that the distribution of Tianjin’s secondary and tertiary industry with compared with other advanced countries. However, on the whole, there is still a gradual shift from the industrial structure of two-three-one to three-two-one. From 1997 to 2006, there is still a phenomenon of industrialization in Tianjin, which means that the percentage of secondary industry increasing the whole industrial sectors’ GDP. It’s also accompanied with industrial upgrading, which means that industrial structure will turn from consumer goods industries to capital property industries. From the prospect of policy, this result is most closely related to the development of the Tianjin Binhai New Area.
    By using ARDL time series model, this study estimates found that the most important factor of Tianjin industrialization was the capital-labor ratio improvement and the increase of trade dependence. The main factor of causing the industrial upgrading was the foreign investment and finance spending on technology. Under the rapid economic development, adjusting the industrial structure for balanced development is also Tianjin Government’s important task that could help Tianjin and other cities in mainland China as early as possible to enter the mode of development of the country`s industrial structure.
    參考文獻: 一、 中文:
    人民網,www.people.com.cn
    中華人民共和國國家統計局網站,www.stats.gov.cn
    中國經濟社會發展統計數據庫-統計年鑑導航,www.data.cnki.net
    中國國家統計局(1983~2010),《中國統計年鑑》。北京:中國統計出版社。
    天津市檔案館(2009),《天津濱海新區經濟發展實錄》。天津:天津人民出版社。
    天津統計信息網,http://www.stats-tj.gov.cn/
    天津市檔案館(2009),《天津濱海新區經濟發展實錄》。天津:天津人民出版社。
    天津統計局(1999),《天津五十年1949-1999》。北京:中國統計出版社。
    天津統計局(1983~2010),《天津統計年鑑》。北京:中國統計出版社。
    王得新、牟永泉(2011),「外商直接投資對天津市產業結構影響的實證分析」,《天津行政學院學報》(天津),第十三卷第一期,頁101-104。
    王翠華(2011),「中國製造業產業結構升級的影響因素與對策討論」,《改革與戰略》(武漢),第三期,頁157-159。
    北方網,www.enorth.com.cn
    甘國華(2005),「教育形成的專業化人力資本對產業結構演進的影響」,《南昌大學學報》(南昌),第十一卷第七期,頁148-153。
    岳福琴(2011),「外商直接投資對我國產業結構的負面影響與對策」,《出國與就業》(西安),第十二期,頁35-39。
    杭州寫字樓網,「台商工業園區在天津落戶」,http://www.o571.com/news/gyyq/20081215134248.htm
    祝爾娟(2010),《天津濱海新區與北京產業對接的研究》。北京:中國經濟出版社。
    袁金宇、湯荻(2006),「外貿對產業結構的影響因素」,《長沙民政職業技術學院學報》(長沙),第二期,頁71-73。
    許松根(2000),「中國大陸的出口擴張、產業成長與升級」,中央研究院研討論文(臺北),No9001。
    陸澤錦、黎迪康(2011),「產業結構演化的影響因素及應用」,《廣西財經學院學報》(廣西),第六期,頁110-114。
    黃智聰、潘俊男(2002),「中國大陸地區製造業產業結構的決定因素」,《中國大陸研究》(台北),第四十五卷第二期,頁97-123。
    曾志超(2009),「台商進駐天津濱海新區開拓華北市場」,國政研究報告,財團法人國家政策研究基金會,科經(研)098-002號。
    賈康(1997),「產業升級的必要條件-企業技術改造與機制的轉換」,《經濟管理》(北京),第五期,頁22-24。
    靳友雯、潘娜(2011),「北部灣經濟區產業結構優化的環境分析-以財政支出結構為視角」,《稅收經濟研究》(南昌),第十一卷第七期,頁148-153。
    魏作磊(2006),「FDI對我國三次產業結構演變的影響-兼論我國服務業增加值比重偏低的現象」,《經濟學家》(成都),第三期,頁61-67。







    二、英文:
    Blomstrom, M. and H. Persson (1983), “ Foreign Investment and Spillover Efficiency in an Underdeveloped Economy:Evidence from the Mexican Manufacturing Industry.” World Development, 11(6), 493-501.
    Chenery, H. B. (1960), “Pattern of Industrial Growth.” The American Economic Review, Nashville: American Economic Association, 50, 624-654.
    Chenery, H. B. and M. Syrquin (1986), “Typical Pattern of Transformation.” In: H. B. Chenery, S. Robinson and M. Syquin (Eds.), Industrialization and Growth. New York: Oxford University Press, 37-83.
    Chung, C. (1994), “Taiwan’s DFI in Mainland China: Impact on the Domestic and Host Economies.” In Lyons, T. P. and V. Nee (Eds.), The Economic Transformation of South China: Reform and Development in the Post-Mao Era. Cornell East Asia Series. Ithaca: Cornell University, East Asia Program, 215-242.
    Clark, C. (1957), The Conditions of Economic Progress. London: Macmillan.
    Fisher, A. G. B. (1939), “Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Production.” Economic Record, 6, 24-38.
    Globeran, S. (1979), “Foreign Investment and ‘Spillover’ Efficiency Benefits in Canadian Manufacturing Industries.” Canadian Journal of Economics, Hoboken: Wiley-Blackwell, 12, 42-56..
    Hoffman, W. G. (1958), The Growth of Industrial Economics. Manchester: Manchester University Press.
    Kuznets, S. (1965), “The Economic Requirements of Modern Industrialization.” In S. Kuznets (Ed.), Economic Growth and Structure. 194-212.
    Pesaran, H.M. and Y. Shin (1998), “An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modeling Approach to Cointegration Analysis,” In Strom, Steinar(Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in The Twentieth Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. New York: Cambridge Press. 371-413
    Pesaran, H.M. Y. Shin and R. J. Smith (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
    Sutcliffe, R. B. (1971), “The Pattern of Industrialization.” in: R. B. Sutcliffe (Ed.), Industry and Underdevelopmen. 16-106.
    The World Bank, http://www.worldbank.org/
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國家發展研究所
    99261010
    100
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099261010
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[國家發展研究所] 學位論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 大小格式瀏覽次數
    101001.pdf1408KbAdobe PDF2635檢視/開啟


    在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回饋