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    題名: 轉移函數模型在旅遊需求預測上的應用-以澳門為例
    Forecasting demand for tourism using a transfer function model - A case for Macau
    作者: 張家瑋
    Chang, Chia Wei
    貢獻者: 邱鳳臨
    蕭明福
    張家瑋
    Chang, Chia Wei
    關鍵詞: 轉移函數模型
    旅遊需求
    預測
    澳門
    transfer function model
    tourism demand
    forecast
    Macau
    日期: 2010
    上傳時間: 2011-09-29 18:32:09 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 近數十年來旅遊業不斷茁壯並走向多元化，在一國經濟中常扮演著舉足輕重地位。澳門為一小型開放經濟體，旅遊業是其產業龍頭及重點發展目標，對整體經濟發展至關重要。然回顧過去文獻少有考慮季節性與突發事件干擾的前提下，針對亞太地區的旅遊需求研究，加以預測方法多為單獨使用因果分析法或時間序列法。本研究在考慮該二種因素，先利用片段線性模型刻畫結構轉變的發生，再進一步結合時間序列分析法建構轉移函數模型。基於平均絕對比率誤差與均方差平方根的評比，轉移函數模型在預測澳門旅遊需求能力上確實有著較優異的表現。實證研究結果可供澳門旅遊相關業者規劃投資、觀光行銷企劃及政府單位採行總體政策參考。
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    98258023
    99
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098258023
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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