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    题名: 大台北都會區的產業發展與勞動供需之研究
    其它题名: Industrial Development , Labor Supply, and Labor Demand in the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area
    作者: 黃仁德
    关键词: 產業發展;勞動供給;勞動需求;經濟基礎分析;共整合
    Industrial development;Labor supply;Labor demand;Economic base theory;Cointegration
    日期: 2000
    上传时间: 2007-04-18 18:27:28 (UTC+8)
    出版者: 臺北市：國立政治大學經濟學系
    摘要: 經濟基礎分析是研究都會區就業成長的重要理論之一，但大多止於靜態研究，時間數列的進一步研究，卻產生經濟基礎分析究竟是短期或是長期模型的爭議。本計畫利用台北都會區的資料，使用共整合分析來作動態研究。結果發現，台北都會區的經濟基礎分析應是一長期均衡模型，其總基礎就業乘數達18.69。本文更進一步以產業別來估計產業基礎就業與總非基礎就業的關係，結果仍傾向經濟基礎分析是一長期均衡模型，且以金融保險業的基礎就業對都會區的發展最為重要，其基礎乘數高達40.06，其次是其他服務業。因此，台北都會區應積極鼓勵這些基礎就業的進駐，以促進台北都會區就業的成長。
    Economic base analysis is one of the most important theories for the study of regional economic growth. The past researches always focus on static forecast or time-series methodology on total basic and service employment. This program applies cointegration and error-correction model to examine the debates by estimating dynamically short-run and long-run multipliers between total basic and service employment. Next, by including intersectoral linkages, we assess the differential basic multipliers. For the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area, we find that economic basic analysis is a long-run equilibrium theory and its total basic multiplier is 1.69. Under interindustrial multipliers model, development of metropolitan employment will be significantly affected by all basic industries. Among these basic industries, finance and insurance is the biggest source of this area growth and its multipliers is up to 40.06. Thus, metropolitan authorities should develop and attract basic industries, especially in finance and insurance.
    描述: 核定金額：440700元
    数据类型: report
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 國科會研究計畫

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