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    题名: 都市蔓延與氣候暖化關係之研究－以台北都會區為例
    The Study of relationship between urban sprawl and climate warming - An example of Taipei metropolitan area
    作者: 賴玫錡
    Lai, Mei Chi
    贡献者: 劉小蘭
    Liu, Hsiao Lan
    賴玫錡
    Lai, Mei Chi
    关键词: 都市蔓延
    氣候暖化
    地理資訊系統
    長期追蹤資料模型
    urban sprawl
    climate warming
    GIS
    panel data model
    日期: 2007
    上传时间: 2010-12-09 16:39:32 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究主要探討台北都會區都市蔓延與氣候暖化之關係，實證分析是否都市蔓延的發展形態會造成氣溫的上升。有研究指出台灣的歷年氣溫上升是因為近年來工商業急速發展，人口增加，建築物型態改變，交通運輸量激增等所致。國內外許多研究也發現都市化與氣溫是呈現正相關，而綠地與氣溫呈現負相關。

    本研究實證分析部分使用地理資訊系統之內差法和空間分析方法，以及迴歸分析使用panel data之固定效果模型等工具，內插法之結果得到台北都會區年平均氣溫自1996年至2006年約上升1℃，有些地區甚至上升約2℃，且上升之溫度範圍有擴大的趨勢，呈現放射狀的溫度分布，此與都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態類似。使用空間分析方法則證實了一地人口數的增加會造成該地氣溫上升，並且也發現近來人口數多增加在都市外圍地區，這與上述氣溫分布和都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態也相符合。

    迴歸分析結果顯示人口數對於氣溫有相當大之正相關，耕地面積對氣溫則呈現負相關，可見得擁有廣大綠地可以降低區域之氣溫，減緩氣候暖化，因此建議政府需檢討當前農地政策，配合環境保護，適合時宜的提出正確之政策。另外在各鄉鎮市區固定效果估計量方面，可以歸納出若一地區有廣大的公園、綠地、或是有河川流域的經過，對於降低當地氣溫有明顯的幫助；時間趨勢之固定效果估計量顯示台北都會區隨著時間的經過，氣溫將持續上升。因此在未來都市規劃方面，規劃者必須了解各地區特性，善加利用其自然環境以調和氣候暖化之影響、多設置公園綠地、多種植綠色植物、在道路周邊行道樹的設置、建築物間風場之設計等。如此將可以降低都市蔓延對氣候暖化的影響，以及防止氣候暖化的發生。
    In this study, we research the relationship between urban sprawl and climate warming in Taipei metropolitan area. Analyze empirically whether the developed shape of urban sprawl causes the climbing of the temperature. Some studies indicate that the reasons why the climate is getting warmer in Taiwan are the high-speed developments of industry and commerce, the increase of population, the changes of the buildings and the huge increase of the traffic volume. Some other studies also find out that there is a positive correlation between the urbanization and the temperature, and there is a negative correlation between the green space and the temperature.

    The empirical analysis in this study is based on the Interpolation Method and Spatial Analysis of GIS. And the regression analysis is based on the Fixed Effect Model of Panel Data. The yearly average temperature increased about 1℃ to 2℃ in the Taipei metropolitan area from 1996 to 2006. Furthermore, the range of the increasing temperature has been trending up, and it reveals a radial distribution. It is similar to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl. By using Spatial Analysis, we prove that the temperature of an area increases when the population rises. And we find out that the population rises in most of the peri-urban areas. It also answers to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl and the distribution of the temperature as above.

    The result of using the regression analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the number of the population and the temperature and is a negative correlation between the farmland areas and the temperature. So that if there is a big green space, it can decrease the temperature in an area, reduce climate warming. For this reason, I suggest that the government should review our current farmland policy, which should be worked with the environmental protection policy, and bring it into practice at the right time right place. From the fixed effect estimation, we concludes that it helps decrease the temperature in an area obviously when there is a big park, big green space or where a river passing through. The time trend of the fixed effect estimation indicates that the climate in the Taipei metropolitan area will be getting warming with time goes by. Therefore, the urban planner should know better of the feature in each area, using the natural environment to accommodate the influence of climate warming. To have more parks, green spaces and plants, plant more trees by the roads, design the wind flow between buildings. Cut down the carbon production by using either way. Thus and so, we can reduce the influence of urban sprawl to climate warming, and also prevent climate warming.
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