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    题名: Housing Price Mortgage Payment and Saving Behavior in Taiwan
    作者: 林祖嘉
    贡献者: 政大經濟系
    关键词: housing price;forced savings;error correction model (ECM)
    日期: 2003
    上传时间: 2010-10-26 16:56:22 (UTC+8)
    摘要: After reaching its peak at the year of 1987, the saving rate of Taiwan dropped quickly in the late 1980’s. At the same time, the real average housing prices in Taiwan had increased almost three times from 1987 to 1990. Why did the saving rated in Taiwan drop so quickly after 1987? Does it relate to the dramatic increase in housing prices? Though it has been confirmed that there is a negative wealth effect of housing price appreciation on savings, the estimated wealth effect on savings could be biased if the effect of mortgage payment (also known as forced savings) on saving is neglected. Applying quarterly data from 1981 to 2000
    in Taiwan, we employ a time series analysis to compare two saving models, the traditional one and the one with forced saving. Our major findings include: First, as we expected, the negative wealth effect of housing price appreciation on saving is smaller in the forced saving model than in the traditional saving model. Secondly, by the estimated ECMs, ignoring the impact of housing price appreciation on forced saving, the speed of short-run adjustment in total saving would be significantly slower. Third, for forecasting purpose, the forecast errors in
    ECM of the forced saving model are smaller than that in the total savings model.
    關聯: Asian Economic Journal, 17(4), 407-425
    数据类型: article
    DOI 連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8381.2003.00193.x
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8381.2003.00193.x
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 期刊論文

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