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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 財務管理學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/36937
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36937


    Title: 公司盈餘宣佈對個股選擇權之影響
    Authors: 林耿玄
    Contributors: 杜化宇
    林耿玄
    Keywords: 盈餘宣告
    個股選擇權
    LIFFE
    Date: 2008
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 20:12:50 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究透過研究個股選擇權在盈餘宣告日附近的價量變化關係來探討公司盈餘發佈對投資人投資決策的影響,研究對象為在LIFFE掛牌之49家個股選擇權,資料期間為2003/01/01至2007/12/31共五年,蒐集到盈餘宣佈日樣本共636筆,透過研究公司盈餘宣告日附近,個股選擇權之隱含波動度、交易量、未平倉口數之變化情形來試圖找出投資人對盈餘宣告期間的投資決策。並進一步將公司盈餘宣告分類為正面消息與負面消息,觀察不同消息類型對投資人投資決策之影響。最後採用拔靴法,在不破壞原資料結構下來擴增研究樣本數至5000筆,來消除可能因為樣本不足所造成之統計誤差。

      實證結果發現:一、隱含波動度在盈餘消息公布當天,因為消息已經揭露,隱含波動度會下降。並在之後逐漸下降到長期均衡狀態。而在消息分類下,好消息同樣因為消息已經確定,所以隱含波動度下降;但在壞消息卻不是如此,當壞消息出現時,由於有消息確定造成隱含波動度下降及槓桿效應使得隱含波動度增加兩種不同方向的影響。所以,隱含波動度走向端看此兩因素的影響大小而定。二、異常交易量確實存在於盈餘宣告前後幾天,且在盈餘宣告當天異常交易量達到最大,顯示市場上存在著資訊不對稱,造成當日交易頻繁,存在許多投機客在個股選擇權市場上進行交易。也發現在盈餘公告前幾天交易量有微幅上升的現象,顯示在LIFFE中,存在些許資訊外露的現象。三、未平倉口數在實際取得樣本的檢驗中顯著天數並不多,約略有出現在盈餘宣告前未平倉口數會增加,而在盈餘宣告日後投資人逐漸結束倉位的趨勢,但這趨勢並不明顯。在利用拔靴法擴大樣本後,盈餘宣告前異常未平倉口數增量顯著的天數增加,改進原有資料顯著天數過少的結果,確實達到修正因為樣本不足所造成之統計誤差,讓本研究的結果更具可信度,更能確實捕捉到盈餘宣告對個股選擇權造成的影響
    Reference: 一、中文部分
    1.王佑民,“年度盈餘資訊內容之研究:以台灣股票上市公司為實證”,國立中山大學企管研究所未出版碩士論文,民國八十四年。
    2.李釗芹,“臺灣上市公司自行宣告盈餘資訊內涵之研究”,私立東海大學企管研究所碩士論文,民國八十九年。
    3.喬慧雯,“上市公司季盈餘宣告資訊內涵之實證研究”,國立政治大學會計學研究所碩士論文,民國八十四年。
    4.謝銘偉,“概估盈餘與公告盈餘不一致對股價影響之研究”,國立台灣大學會計研究所碩士論文,民國八十八年。
    二、英文部分
    1. Athony, J. H., (1988) “The interrelation of stock and options markets trading volume data” , Journal of Finance, Vol.43, pp.949-964.
    2. Ball, R., and P. Brown, (1968) “An empirical evaluation of accounting income
    numbers” , Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.6, pp.159-177.
    3. Ball, R., (1978) “Anomalies in relationships between securities’ yields and yield
    Surrogates” , Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.6, pp.103-126.
    4. Bamber, L.S., (1986) “The information content of annual earnings releases: a
    trading volume approach ” , Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.24, pp.40-56.
    5. Beaver, W. H., (1968) “The information content of annual earnings announcements” , Journal of Accounting Research(Supplement), Vol.6, pp.67-92.
    6. Beaver, W.H., R. Clarke, and W.F. Wright, (1979) “The association between
    unsystematic security percentage change in price and the magnitude of earnings
    foreast errors” , Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.17, pp.316-340.
    7. Bhattacharya, Mihir, (1987) “Price Changes of Related Securities: The Case of Call Options and Stocks” , Journal of Financial & Quantitative Analysis, Vol.22, pp.1-15.
    8. Black, Fischer, (1975) “Fact and Fantasy In the Use of Options” , Financial
    Analysts Journal, Vol.31, pp.36-72.
    10. Donders, M. W. M. and Ton C. F. Vorst, (1996)“The impact of firm specific news    
     on implied volatilities” , Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol.20, pp.1447-1461.
    11. Donders, M. W. M. and Ton C. F. Vorst, (2000) “Option and earnings
    announcements : an empirical study of volatility, trading volume, open interest and liquidity” , European Financial Management, Vol.6, No.2, pp.149-171.
    12. Donders, M. W. M., Roy Kouwenberg, and Ton C.F. Vorst, (2000) “Options and earnings announcements:an empirical study of volatility, trading volume, open interest and liquidity” , European Financial Management, Vol. 6,No.2,pp.149-171.
    13. George, T.J., G. Kaul, and M. Nimalendran, (1994) “Trading volume and transaction costs in specialist markets” , Journal of Finance, Vol.49,pp.1498-1505.
    14. Isakov, Dusan and C. Perignon, (2001) “Evolution of market uncertainty around earnings announcements” , Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol.25, pp.1769-1788.
    15. Karpoff, J.M., (1986) “A theory of trading volume” , Journal of Finance, Vol.41, pp.1069-1087.
    16. Latané, Henry A., Charles P. Jones, and R. Rieke, (1974) “Quarterly earning reports and subsequent period returns” , Journal of Business Research, Vol.2 , pp.119-132.
    17. Latané, Henry A., and Charles P. Jones, (1977) “Standard unexpected earnings : A
    progress report” , Journal of Finance, Vol. 32, pp.1457-1465.
    18. Latané, Henry A., and Charles P. Jones, (1979) “Standard unexpected earnings :
    1971-77” , Journal of Finance, Vol.34, pp.1457-1465.
    19. Manaster, S., and R. Rendleman, (1982) “Option Prices as Predictors of Equilibrium Stock Prices” , Journal of Finance, Vol.37, pp.1043-58.
    20. Patell, J., and M. Wolfson, (1979) “Anticipated Information Release Reflected in Call Option Prices” , Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol.1, pp.117-40.
    21. Patell, J., and M. Wolfson, (1981) “The Ex Ante and Ex Post Price Effects of Quarterly Earnings Announcements Reflected in Stock and Option Prices”, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.19, pp.434-58.
    22. Schachter, B., (1998) “Open interest in stock options around quarterly earnings announcements” , Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.26, pp.353-372.
    23. Varson, P. L. and M. J. P. Selby, (1997) “Option prices as predictors of stock
    prices: intraday adjustments to information releases” , European Journal
    of Finance, Vol.3, pp.49-72.
    24. Watts, R., (1978) “ Systematic ‘abnormal’ returns after quarterly earnings Announcements” , Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.3, pp.127-150.
    25. Whaley, R., and J. Cheung, (1982) “Anticipation of Quarterly Earnings Announcements: A Test of Option Market Efficiency” , Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol.4, pp.57-83.
    26. Wilson, A.J., (1997) “On options trading and open interest around earnings report dates” , working paper, George Washington University
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財務管理研究所
    96357034
    97
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096357034
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[財務管理學系] 學位論文

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