English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 113656/144643 (79%)
Visitors : 51716144      Online Users : 631
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 會計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/36904
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36904


    Title: CVCS模型與CVCS`模型盈餘預測準確度與資訊內涵之探討
    Authors: 張嘉玲
    Chang, Chia Ling
    Contributors: 鄭丁旺
    Cheng, Ting Wong
    張嘉玲
    Chang, Chia Ling
    Keywords: 盈餘預測準確度
    資訊內涵
    分析師盈餘預測
    Forecast accuracy
    Information content
    Analysts` consensus forecasts
    Date: 2006
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 20:06:15 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究探討Banker and Chen (2006)建構之CVCS模型與本研究建構之CVCS’模型之盈餘預測準確度與資訊內涵,並以ROE模型、OPINC模型、CASHFLOW模型與分析師盈餘預測作為判斷CVCS模型與CVCS’模型是否具有盈餘預測準確度與資訊內涵之比較基準模型。盈餘預測準確度之實證結果顯示:(1)CVCS模型之盈餘預測準確度低於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之盈餘預測準確度;(2)CVCS’模型與ROE模型、OPINC模型、CASHFLOW模型之盈餘預測準確度並無差異;(3)CVCS模型之盈餘預測準確度低於分析師盈餘預測之盈餘預測準確度;(4)CVCS’模型之盈餘預測準確度低於分析師盈餘預測之盈餘預測準確度。資訊內涵之實證結果顯示:(1)CVCS模型之資訊內涵高於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之資訊內涵;(2)CVCS’模型之資訊內涵低於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之資訊內涵;(3)CVCS模型之資訊內涵低於分析師盈餘預測之資訊內涵;(4)CVCS’模型之資訊內涵低於分析師盈餘預測之資訊內涵。
    This study examines the forecast accuracy and the information content of CVCS model, proposed by Banker and Chen (2006), and CVCS’ model, constructed by this study. To evaluate the performances of these two models, this study uses ROE model, OPINC model, CASHFLOW model and analysts’ consensus forecasts as the benchmarks. The results of forecast accuracy show (1) the forecast accuracy of CVCS model is less than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (2) the forecast accuracy of CVCS’ model is not different from that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (3) the forecast accuracy of CVCS model is less than that of analysts’ consensus forecasts and (4) the forecast accuracy of CVCS’ model is less than that of analysts’ consensus forecasts. The results of information content show (1) the information content of CVCS model is greater than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (2) the information content of CVCS’ model is less than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (3) the information content of CVCS model is less than that of analysts consensus forecasts, (4) the information content of CVCS’ model is less than that of analysts consensus forecasts.
    Reference: 李政達,1993,逆選擇風險、股票買賣價差與現金增資之探討,國立中正大學
    財務金融學系碩士論文。
    吳安妮,1993,財務分析師、管理當局、及統計模式預測準確度之比較研究,
    管理評論,第十二期(7月): 1-48。
    吳孟奇,1995,每股盈餘之預測--適應性模糊系統模式,國立成功大學企業
    管理學系碩士論文。
    吳國鼎,2002,上市電子公司調升、調降財測宣告效果之研究,國立政治大學
    國際貿易學系碩士論文。
    林芳儀,2001,國內上市公司管理當局、分析師與統計模式預測能力之比較,
    國立臺灣大學會計學系碩士論文。
    林旻毅,2004,銷管費用僵固性之額外證據,私立輔仁大學會計學系碩士論
    文。
    洪玉芬,1993,財務分析師與統計模式盈餘預測準確性之比較-預測時點之實
    証研究,國立台灣大學會計學系碩士論文。
    洪慧娟,2002,應計項目與未來現金流量預測之研究,國立成功大學會計學系
    碩士論文。
    許秀賓,1991,財務分析師盈餘預測相對準確性決定因素之實證研究,國立政
    治大學會計學系碩士論文。
    游志偉,1992,企業融資宣告與股價關係之實證研究--以台灣股票上市公司
    為例,國立中山大學企業管理學系碩士論文.
    游文章,1997,公司每股盈餘預測---以類神經網路模式預測,國立中山大學
    財務管理學系碩士論文。
    曾聯洲,2003,銷管費用僵固性之研究,國立政治大學會計學系碩士論文。
    曾淑玲,2005,營業成本、銷管費用之成本習性研究-以某筆記型電腦公司為
    例,私立輔仁大學會計學系碩士論文。
    楊昌智,2005,銷管費用僵固性之個案研究-以國內買賣業為例,私立輔仁大
    學會計學系碩士論文。
    謝書正,1999,上市公司現金增資與股價關係之實證研究,國立中興大學企業
    管理學系碩士論文。
    藍順得,1997,上市公司盈餘預測模式相對績效之研究,私立淡江大學會計學
    系碩士論文。
    羅湘萍,1995,上市公司盈餘預測模式之探討,國立中山大學財務管理學系碩
    士論文。
    Anderson, M. C., R. D. Banker, and S. N. Janakiraman. 2003. Are selling, general, and administrative costs "sticky"?
    Journal of Accounting Research 41 (1): 47-63.
    Armstrong, J. S. 1983. Relative accuracy of judgemental and
    extrapolative methods in forecasting annual earnings.
    Journal of Forecasting 2 (4): 437-447.
    Banker, R. D., and L. T. Chen. 2006. Predicting earnings
    using a model based on cost variability and cost
    stickiness. The Accounting Review 81 (2): 285-307.
    Brown, L. D. 1993. Earnings forecasting research: Its
    implications for capital markets research.
    International Journal of Forecasting 9 (3): 295-320.
    _____, and P. A. Griffin. 1983. Perspectives on forecasting
    research in accounting and finance. Journal of
    Forecasting 2 (4): 325-330.
    _____, R. L. Hagerman, P. A. Griffin, and M. E. Zmijewski.
    1987a. Security analyst superiority relative to
    univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly
    earnings. Journal of Accounting & Economics 9 (1): 61-
    87.
    _____, G. D. Richardson, and S. J. Schwager. 1987b. An
    information interpretation of financial analyst
    superiority in forecasting earnings. Journal of
    Accounting Research 25 (1): 49-67.
    _____, and M. S. Rozeff. 1978. The superiority of analyst
    forecasts as measures of expectations: Evidence from
    earnings. The Journal of Finance 33 (1): 1-16.
    Calleja, K., M. Steliaros, and D. C. Thomas. 2006. A note
    on cost stickiness: Some international comparisons.
    Management Accounting Research 17 (2): 127-140.
    Chatfield, R. E., R. C. Moyer, and P. M. Sisneros. 1989.
    The accuracy of long-term earnings forecasts for
    industrial firms. Quarterly Journal of Business and
    Economics 28 (3): 91-104.
    Collins, D. W., and P. Hribar. 2000. Earnings-based and
    accrual-based market anomalies: One effect or two?
    Journal of Accounting & Economics 29 (1): 101-123.
    Collins, W. A., and W. S. Hopwood. 1980. A multivariate
    analysis of annual earnings forecasts generated from
    quarterly forecasts of financial analysts and
    univariate time-series models. Journal of Accounting
    Research 18 (2): 390-406.
    Cragg, J. G., and B. G. Malkiel. 1968. The consensus and
    accuracy of some predictions of the growth of corporate
    earnings. The Journal of Finance 23 (1): 67-84.
    Crichfield, T., T. Dyckman, and J. Lakonishok. 1978. An
    evaluation of security analysts` forecasts. The
    Accounting Review 53 (3): 651-668.
    Elton, E. J., and M. J. Gruber. 1972. Earnings estimates
    and the accuracy of expectational data. Management
    Science 18 (8): 409-424.
    Fairfield, P. M., R. J. Sweeney, and T. L. Yohn. 1996.
    Accounting classification and the predictive content of
    earnings. The Accounting Review 71 (3): 337-355.
    Financial Accounting Standards Board. 1978. Objectives of
    financial reporting by business enterprises. Statements
    of Financial Accounting Concepts No. 1.
    Frankel, R., and C. M. C. Lee. 1998. Accounting valuation,
    market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns.
    Journal of Accounting & Economics 25 (3): 283-319.
    Fried, D., and D. Givoly. 1982. Financial analysts`
    forecasts of earnings: A better surrogate for market
    expectations. Journal of Accounting & Economics 4 (2):
    85-107.
    Imhoff, E. A., Jr., and P. V. Pare. 1982. Analysis and
    comparison of earnings forecast agents. Journal of
    Accounting Research 20 (2): 429-439.
    Lobo, G. J., and R. D. Nair. 1991. Analysts` utilization of
    historical earnings information. Managerial and
    Decision Economics 12 (5): 383-393.
    Noreen, E., and N. Soderstrom. 1994. Are overhead costs
    strictly proportional to activity? : Evidence from
    hospital departments. Journal of Accounting and
    Economics 17 (1-2): 255-278.
    __________, and _____________. 1997. The accuracy of
    proportional cost models: Evidence from hospital
    service departments. Review of Accounting Studies 2
    (1): 89-114.
    O`Brien, P. C. 1988. Analysts` forecasts as earnings
    expectations. Journal of Accounting & Economics 10 (1):
    53-83.
    Rozeff, M. S. 1983. Predicting long-term earnings growth:
    Comparisons of expected return models, submartingales
    and value line analysts. Journal of Forecasting 2 (4):
    425- 435.
    Ruland, W. 1978. The accuracy of forecasts by management
    and by financial analysts. The Accounting Review 53
    (2): 439-447.
    Sloan, R. G. 1996. Do stock prices fully reflect
    Information in accruals and cash flows about future
    earnings? The Accounting Review 71 (3): 289-315.
    Subramaniam, C., and M. L. Weidenmier. 2003. Additional
    evidence on the sticky behavior of costs. Working
    paper, Texas Christian University.
    Wild, J. J., and S. S. Kwon. 1994. Earnings expectations,
    firm size, and the informativeness of stock prices.
    Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 21 (7): 975-
    996.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    會計研究所
    94353002
    95
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0943530021
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[會計學系] 學位論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    002101.pdf48KbAdobe PDF21211View/Open
    002102.pdf89KbAdobe PDF21808View/Open
    002103.pdf55KbAdobe PDF21362View/Open
    002104.pdf75KbAdobe PDF21372View/Open
    002105.pdf109KbAdobe PDF21520View/Open
    002106.pdf214KbAdobe PDF22189View/Open
    002107.pdf321KbAdobe PDF22443View/Open
    002108.pdf280KbAdobe PDF21422View/Open
    002109.pdf95KbAdobe PDF21698View/Open
    002110.pdf77KbAdobe PDF21270View/Open
    002111.pdf88KbAdobe PDF21615View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback