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| Title: | 公司自願揭露財務預測影響因素之研究 |
| Authors: | 陳雅蘭
Chen,Ya Lan |
| Contributors: | 馬秀如
陳雅蘭
Chen,Ya Lan |
| Keywords: | 財務預測
自願揭露
影響因素
Financial forecast
Voluntary disclosure
Factor |
| Date: | 2006 |
| Issue Date: | 2009-09-18 20:03:34 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 強制性財務預測揭露制度已實施十多年，惟財務預測品質不佳、管理當局刻意操縱財務預測以影響股價等問題遲遲無法解決，致金管會乃決定自2005起廢止舊制，改採自願性財務預測揭露制度。本次改革除符合國際做法之外，並期望能達到降低公司財務預測成本、提高預測準確度，以及健全預測資訊公開之環境。
2005年為實施自願性財務預測揭露制度之第一個年度，當年上市（櫃）公司中，只有約6%的公司自願公開其財務預測。本研究認為，對投資人而言，財務預測既為有用資訊，為何願意公開財務預測的公司卻如此少呢？故本研究欲辨認左右公司是否公開財務預測行為之因素。
本研究設立七項與管理當局自願性揭露財務預測有關之決定因素─內部人持股比率、資本結構、資金需求、經營績效、盈餘波動性、權益資金成本，以及外資持股率，並以公司規模、產業、負債對權益比率為控制變數。研究樣本為2005年之上市(櫃)公司，將其分成兩組，ㄧ組為當年度自願揭露財務預測之公司，另ㄧ組則為當年度未曾揭露財務預測之公司，運用logit進行迴歸分析。
實證分析結果顯示，揭露與不揭露財務預測公司之主要不同特質，在於：公司過去經營績效之好壞及外資對公司之持股比率。過去經營績效較佳之公司，其主動揭露財務預測資訊給外界之機率較高；外資持股比率越高之公司，其主動揭露財務預測給外界之機率較高。
This study examines the factors that affect managers to disclosure financial forecasts. Seven potential factors were compared for a sample of firms that reported forecasts and another sample of firms that did not release this information. The seven factors are: (1) the proportion of inside ownership, (2) capital structure, (3) the demand for external finance, (4) the business performance, (5) earnings volatility, (6) the cost of equity capital, (7) the proportion of foreign ownership. There are three control variables, including size, industry and the ratio of debt to equity.
The findings report that the better the past business performance is, the more the probability that the manager will voluntarily disclose financial forecast is. The findings also report that the higher the proportion of foreign ownership is, the more willing the manager is to voluntarily disclose financial forecast. |
| Reference: | 中文部分：
公開發行公司公開財務預測資訊處理準則。
王濟川、郭志剛，2004，Logistic迴歸模型─方法及應用。
王耀華，2004，世界主要證券市場財務預測制度及相關規範之探究，績效與策略研究第1卷第1期：91-115。
李建然，1996，影響台灣上市公司自願性盈餘預測行為因素之研究，國立政治大學會研所博士論文。
吳安妮，1991，經理人員自願揭露盈餘預測資訊給外界之決定因素－實證研究，會計評論第25期(2月)：1-24。
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尚光琪，1999，我國財務預測制度實行成效之實證探討，會計研究月刊第160期：74-78。
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范明玲，1997，立法院想廢、證管會強留、投資人難懂－新修訂財務預測資訊公開體系總檢討，會計研究月刊第140期：29-41。
莊太平，2005，淺論財務預測制度改為自願性之妥適性，證券暨期貨月刊第23卷第4期：4-23。
陳冠宙，陳育成，陳雪如，2005，影響上市公司網站資訊透明度因子之實證，會計與公司治理第2卷第1期：33-59。
陳峰富，2005，上市上櫃公司董事對於財務預測之法律責任，律師雜誌第305期：43-65。
劉聯旭，1998，實施強制性財務預測對管理當局自願性盈餘預測揭露行為之影響，國立台灣大學會研所碩士論文。
蘇淑卿，2005，財務預測新制之實施與管理，證券暨期貨月刊第23卷第4期：24-32。
英文部分：
Ajinkya, B., and M. J. Gift. 1984. Corporate managers` earnings forecasts and symmetrical adjustments of market expectations. Journal of Accounting Research 22 (Autumn): 425-444.
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Ruland, W., S., Tung, and N. E. George. 1990. Factors associated with the disclosure of managers’ forecasts. The Accounting Review 65 (Jul): 710-721.
Skinner, D. J. 1994. Why firms voluntarily disclose bad news? Journal of Accounting Research 32 (Spring): 38-59.
Trueman B. 1986. Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecast? Journal of Accounting and Economics 8: 53-71.
Verrecchia R. E. 1983. Discretionary disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Economics 5: 179-194. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
會計研究所
93353044
95 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093353044 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [會計學系] 學位論文
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