政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/35124
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 114012/145044 (79%)
造访人次 : 52081223      在线人数 : 552
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35124


    题名: 台灣失業率與犯罪關係之初探—不同模型之比較
    Exploration of the relationship between unemployment rate and crimes in Taiwan：A Comparison between Models
    作者: 魏大耕
    贡献者: 郭炳伸
    魏大耕
    关键词: 失業
    犯罪經濟
    機會效果
    動機效果
    無母數方法
    時間序列
    景氣循環
    unemployment
    economic crime
    opportunity effect
    motivation effect
    nonparametric method
    time series
    business cycle
    日期: 2007
    上传时间: 2009-09-18 14:13:12 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 在過去研究犯罪經濟學的理論文獻上，失業率對各犯罪類型的影響為正向關係，但在實証文獻上的研究發現，卻有愈來愈多的証據支持此二個變數間的負向或無關係。為了解釋上述正向與負向間相反的矛盾關係，本篇論文嘗試利用兩種模型(非參數與非參數模型)與兩種效果(機會效果與動機效果)來解釋此二變數間的關係，此亦是本論文主要貢獻。其中機會效果是用以解釋失業率與犯罪間的負向關係，動機效果則用以解釋正向關係。在非參數模型中，利用失業率為景氣循環的代理變數，發現失業率與竊盜間存在正向關係，此與大多實証研究相符；失業率則和妨害風化與殺人犯罪間呈現負向相關；失業率與傷害罪間則沒有明顯正負關係。研究亦顯示，不同的犯罪類型在不同的參數模型下，統計的顯著性亦有不同，而在不同年齡層(青少年與成年人)的犯罪模型則更與理論模型結論相符。
    According to the theoretical literature on criminal economics, unemployment rate tends to be positively correlated to all types of crimes. However, more and more empirical evidence suggests otherwise. In order to clarify the relationship, this study exploits both nonparametric and parametric models and considers two effects, including opportunity and motivation effects. The presence of the opportunity effect leads to be a negative correlation between unemployment rate and crimes, while the presence of the motivation effect gives a positive correlation. Under nonparametric model where unemployment rate is used as a proxy for business cycles, we only found that there is positive correlation between unemployment rate and robbery, while obscenity and homicide are found to be negatively correlated with unemployment rate. This is in line with most empirical studies. Little correlation evidence is found for unemployment and other types of crimes. Under parametric model, the study indicates that the statistical significance differs in models, and depends on crime variable used. We found more consistent results with theoretic models for the age groups (teenagers and adults).
    參考文獻: Archer, D. and R. Garner. (1986) "Violence and the economy: A modest hypothesis on inequality, unemployment and crime." International Annals of Criminology 24 (1-2),.255-266.
    Becker, G. S. (1968) "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach." The Journal of Political Economy 76 (2),.169-217.
    Britt, C. L. (2001.) "Testing Theory and the Analysis of Time Series Data." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4), 343-357.
    Cantor, D., and K. C. Land. (1985.) "Unemployment and Crime Rates in the Post-World War II United States: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis." American Sociological Review 50 (3), 317-332.
    ———, (1991.) "Exploring Possible Temporal Relationships of Unemployment and Crime: A Comment on Hale and Sabbagh." Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 28 (4), 418-425.
    ———, (2001.) "Unemployment and Crime Rate Fluctuations: A Comment on Greenberg." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4), 329-342.
    Chuang, C. C. (2002.) "A Study of the Determinants of the General Rate of Criminal Offenders in Taiwan " Journal of Environment and Management 3 (1), 77-98.
    Hsu, C. J., , Y.,S., Chen, P.L, Wang (1991) "The Empirical Study of Violance Crime Victims` Characteristics and Routine Activity Style." Journal of Police Science, 19
    Cochrane, D. and G. Orcutt (1949), "Application of Least Squares to Relationships Containing Auto-correlated Error Terms", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 44, 32-61
    Cook, P. J., and G. A. Zarkin. (1985.) "Crime and the Business Cycle." The Journal of Legal Studies 14 (1), 115-128.
    Durbin, J. and G.. S. Watson, (1951) "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression," Biometrika, vol38, 159-171.
    Ehrlich, I. (1973) "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation." The Journal of Political Economy 81 (3), 521-565.
    Ehrlich, I., and Zhiqiang Liu (2006) “The Economics of Crime, Volume 1.” The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics 195, Edward Elgar published.
    Greenberg, D. F. (2001.) "Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4), 291.
    Gujarati, D. N. (2003) “Basic Econometrics.” International edition: McGRAW - Hill.
    Hale, C. (1991.) "Unemployment and Crime: Differencing Is No Substitute for Modeling." Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 28 (4), 427-429.
    Hale, C., and D. Sabbagh. (1991.) "Testing the Relationship between Unemployment and Crime: A Methodological Comment and Empirical Analysis Using Time Series Data from England and Wales." Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 28 (4), 400-417.
    Kapuscinski, C. A., J. Braithwaite and B. Chapman. (1998) "Unemployment and Crime: Toward Resolving the Paradox." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 14, 215-241.
    Land, K. C., D. Cantor, and S. T. Russell. (1995) "Unemployment and crime rate fluctuations in the post- World War II United States: Statistical time-series properties and alternative models." Standford University Press, Standford, CA.
    Lin, M.-J., Chung-Wei., Liu (2006) "Does Unemployment Increases Crime? Evidence from County Data of Taiwan 1978–2003." Taiwan Economic Review 34 (4),445-483.
    Maddala, G. S. (2001) "Introduction to Econometrics." 3ed: Wiley.
    Moffitt, T. E. (1993) "Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy." Psychological Review 100 (4),674-701.
    Naffine, N., and F. Gale (1989). “Testing the nexus: Crime, gender, and unemployment”. The British journal of criminology. 29: 144-156.
    O`Brien, R. M. (2001) "Theory, Operationalization, Identification, and the Interpretation of Different Differences in Time Series Models." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4),359-375.
    Paternoster, R., and S. D, Bushway (2001) "Theoretical and Empirical Work on the Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 17 (4),391-407.
    Shu, S. (2001) "Economic Development and Crime --Taiwan Experiences Analysis from 1951 to 1998." PhD dissertation, NCCU Graduate Institute of Development Studies,
    Weatherburn, D., B. Lind and S. Ku. (2001) "The Short-Run Effects of Economic Adversity on Property Crime." Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology 34,134-147.
    White, H. (1980), "A Heteroscedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test of Heteroscedasticity," Econometrica, vol. 48, 817- 818
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營與貿易研究所
    94351020
    96
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094351020
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    102001.pdf62KbAdobe PDF2805检视/开启
    102002.pdf77KbAdobe PDF2873检视/开启
    102003.pdf75KbAdobe PDF21235检视/开启
    102004.pdf12KbAdobe PDF2810检视/开启
    102005.pdf44KbAdobe PDF21219检视/开启
    102006.pdf54KbAdobe PDF2911检视/开启
    102007.pdf157KbAdobe PDF2896检视/开启
    102008.pdf16KbAdobe PDF2846检视/开启
    102009.pdf47KbAdobe PDF21361检视/开启
    102010.pdf96KbAdobe PDF2750检视/开启
    102011.pdf30KbAdobe PDF2912检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈