政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/34843

政大典藏 > College of Social Science > Master for Eminent Public Administrators > Theses > Item 140.119/34843

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34843

Title:	僑外直接投資台灣的決定因素 Determinants of Overseas Chinese and Foreign Direct Investment in Taiwan
Authors:	張淑音 Chang,Shu-ying
Contributors:	黃智聰 Huang,Jr-Tsung 張淑音 Chang,Shu-ying
Keywords:	台灣外資直接投資決定因素普通最小平方法 Determinant Foreign Direct Investment FDI OLS Taiwan
Date:	2005
Issue Date:	2009-09-19 15:21:04 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	台灣經濟屬於淺碟型經濟，且受限於缺乏自然資源，所以資本的形成相當的不容易。為求經濟的發展，資本的形成，尤其是固定投資的累積相當的重要。而資本形成的數種財源中，以僑外直接投資對國際收支與通貨膨脹的壓力影響較小，並能引進新生產技術及經營管理知識，從而促進產業的持續成長與企業管理現代化理想的實現。台灣之所以能成為經濟上的亞洲四小龍之一，這當中經濟成長的背後資金來源，僑外商的直接投資是不可或缺的。近年來，台灣的名目利率不斷下跌，甚至實質利率為負的情況下，投資動能卻仍顯不足。為瞭解構成廠商投資意願的決定因素，故以對投資具相當敏感度的僑外商為研究的主要對象，所以本文的主要目的即是探討僑外直接投資台灣的決定因素。本研究使用1995年至2004年間的時間數列月資料，以普通最小平方迴歸模型，估計僑外資、僑資、外資、製造業及服務業等五種模型的直接投資決定因素。結果顯示在僑外資及外資的模型中，其顯著變數有工資、利率、世界競爭力及政黨輪替。僑資模型的顯著因素有犯罪率及政黨輪替。製造業模型的顯著變數有工資、匯率及利率。而服務業模型則有工資、利率及研究發展經費為顯著變項。另各模型時間變數方面，僑外資、外資及服務業等模型的第6年虛擬變數具顯著效果。在月虛擬變數上，投資正相關的月份僑外資為6、7月及10至12月；僑資為7、8兩月；外資於5月後各月；製造業則為3月及5月後各月；服務業則為7、11及12月。又僑資及服務業兩模型中，4月均為負相關。至於經濟成長率、每人國內生產毛額及政黨比率等不顯著變項，表示均非僑外商投資所關注的因素。 Taiwan’s saucer-shallow economic scale and scarce natural resources make capital formation very difficult. Nevertheless, capital formation, especially accumulation of fixed investment, is essential to economic development. Among various sources of capital formation, foreign direct investment imposes least pressure on the balance of payments and inflation, introduces innovative technology and management skills, and hence contributes most significantly to sustainable industrial development and the realization of business management ideals. Taiwan ranks among the four newly-industrialized Asian tigers. Among the funding sources that have promoted Taiwan’s economic growth over the years, direct investment from overseas Chinese and foreigners plays an indispensable part. In recent years, however, even though nominal interest rates have continuously fallen, at times even to the level of negative real interest rates, investment momentum still appeared weakened. Based on this observation, this study tries to understand what drives decisions to invest in Taiwan by focusing on overseas Chinese and foreign investors who are highly investment sensitive. The main purpose of the study is to discuss the determinants of overseas Chinese and foreign direct investment in Taiwan. This study applies the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Regression model to analyze the monthly time-series data during the period of 1995-2004. Determinants of direct investment are examined in five groups, i.e. overseas Chinese & foreign investment, overseas Chinese investment, foreign investment, the manufacturing sector, and the services sector. The result shows that wages, interest rates, world competitiveness, and the rotation of ruling parties are the most important factors for overseas Chinese & foreign investment, and foreign investment. Overseas Chinese investment is significantly affected by the crime rate and the rotation of ruling parties. For the manufacturing sector, wages, exchange rates and interest rates are important variables. Wages, interest rates and R&D spending significantly affect investment in the services sector. In terms of the time variables in each group, the sixth year dummy variable has a significant effect on overseas Chinese & foreign investment, foreign investment, and the services sector. With regard to monthly dummy variables, positively correlated to investment are June, July, and October to December for overseas Chinese & foreign investment; July and August for overseas Chinese investment; May to December for foreign investment; March, and May to December for the manufacturing sector; and July, November, and December for the services sector. In addition, April shows a negative correlation for both overseas Chinese investment and the services sector. Variables with insignificant effects, including economic growth rates, per capita GDP, and the congressional seats of political parties, are not among the concerns of overseas Chinese and foreign investors.
Reference:	一、中文部分王泰允（1981），《多國性企業—經營策略與實例》。台北：環球經濟社。杜震華（1995），「在台外商特性及其投資因素之比較分析」，《臺灣銀行季刊》，46(1)，頁123-150。杜震華、薛琦（1989），「直接外來投資與台灣的固定投資」，《經濟論文》，頁63-92。林少龍（1998），「由供給面分析外人來台直接投資的決定因素」，《亞太管理評論》，3(1)，頁59-72。黃智聰、潘俊男（2002），「大陸地區製造業產業結構的決定因素」，《中國大陸研究》，45（2），頁97-123。黃智聰、林昇誼、潘俊男（2003），「不同來源外資企業在中國大陸生產效率之比較－以工業部門為例」，《遠景季刊》，4（1），頁93-123。黃智聰、高安邦、余姿瑩（2004），「外來投資在中國大陸各地區分佈不均度之分析」，《中國大陸研究》，47（2），頁33-56。經濟部國際貿易局（1998），「現階段外資來華投資較亞洲其他競爭國相對趨緩的結構面分析、政策含意與建議」，中央銀行全球主要外人直接投資淨流入國家其原因分析暨聯合國之相關報告，國際金融參考資料第48輯。趙曙明（1999），《國際企業管理》。台北：五南圖書出版有限公司。劉任（2004），「在台外資企業150大」，《貿易雜誌》，155，頁8-13。劉孟俊、陳信宏、吳明澤、周欣儀、歐宜佩（2004），《僑外投資事業營運狀況調查及對我國經濟發展貢獻分析報告（民國九十二年）》，台北：經濟部投資審議委員會委託計畫。薛琦（1978），「我國外資廠商出口傾向的研究－兼論我國吸引外資的因素」，《台北市銀行月刊》，9（11），頁12-20。二、政府出版品內政部警政署編（1995-2004），《警政統計月報》，台北：內政部警政署。中央銀行編（1995-2004），《中華民國台灣地區金融統計月報》，台北：中央銀行。中央銀行編（2004），《中華民國台灣地區資金流量統計》，台北：中央銀行經濟研究處。行政院主計處編（1995-2004），《統計手冊》，台北：行政院主計處。行政院主計處編（1995-2004），《人力資統計月報》，台北：行政院主計處。行政院國家科學委員會編（2004-2005），《科學技術統計要覽》，台北：行政院國家科學委員會。經濟部投資審議委員會編（1995-2004），《經濟部投資審議委員會統計月報》，台北：經濟部投資審議委員會。三、英文部分 Bernhardt, Rudolf (2003), The Encyclopedia of Public International Law, 8, 246. United Kingdom: The Auspices of The Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law. Blais, Jeffrey Peter (1975), A Theory and Empirical Investigation of Canadian and British Direct Foreign Investment in Manufacturing in the United States. Ph.D. Dissertation. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh. Buckley, Peter J. and Mark Cassons (1976), The Future of Multinational Enterprises. London: Macmillan. Buckley, Peter J. and Mark Cassons (1981), “The Optimal Timing of a Foreign Direct Investment.” Economic Journal, 91, 75-87. Caves, Richard E. (1971), “International Corporation: The Industrial Economics of Foreign Investment.” Economics, 38, 1-27. Cheung, Kui-yin and Ping Lin (2004), “Spillover Effects of FDI on Innovation in China: Evidence from the Provincial Data.” China Economic Review, 15(1), 25-44. Chou, Tein-Chen (1988), “American and Japan Direct Foreign Investment in Taiwan, A Comparative Study.” Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 29(2), 165-179. Dees, Stèphane (1998), “Foreign Direct Investment in China: Determinants and Effects.” Economics of Planning, 31(2/3), 175-194. Dunning, John H. (1973), “The Determinants of International Production.” Oxford Economic Papers, 35, 289-325. Dunning, John H. (1980), “Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Test.” Journal of International Business Studies, 11(1), 9-31. Foot, Kenneth (1991), “Japanese Foreign Direct Investment.” NBER Working Paper, W3737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Harvard Business School. Froot, Kenneth A. and Jeremy Stein (1991), “Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: an Imperfect Capital Markets Approach.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 1191-1217. Hill, Ceter R., William E. Griffiths, and George E. Judge (2001), Undergraduate Econometrics, New York: John Wiley & Sons, c2001. Hong, Mao, and Luo-Shou Chen (2001), “Quantitative and Dynamic Analysis of the OLI Variables Determining FDI in China.” Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, 13(2), 163-172. Huang, Fanzhang (1995), “China’s Utilization of Foreign Capital and the Related Policies.” Journal of Asian Economics, 6(2), 217-232. Huang, Jr-Tsung, Chun-Chien Kuo, and An-Pang Kao (2003), “The Inequality of Regional Economic Development in China between 1991 and 2001. ” Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 1(3), 273-285. Huang, Jr-Tsung (2004), “Spillover from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau Investment and from Other Foreign Investment in Chinese Industries.” Contemporary Economic Policy, 22(1), 13-25. Hymer, Stephen H. (1960), The International Operations of National Firms: A Study of Direct Foreign Investment by Ph.D. Thesis, MIT, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1976. Jeon, Yoong-Deok (1992), “The Determinants of Korean Foreign Direct Investment in Manufacturing Industries.” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 128(3), 527-541. Kobrin, Stephen J. (1978), “When Does Political Instability Result in Increased Investment Risk?” Columbia Journal of World Busines, 13(3),113-122. Kojima, Kiyoshi (1973), “A Macroeconomic Approach to Foreign Direct Investment.” Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 14, 1-21. Kojima, Kiyoshi (1978), “Japanese and America Direct Investment in Asia: A Comparative Study.” Third International Conference on MNE, 39-107. Krugman, Paul (1991), “Increasing Returns and Economic Geography.” The Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 483-499. Lucus, Robert E. B. (1993), “On the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from East and Southeast Asia.” World Development, 21, 391-406. OECD (1996), OECD Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment. Paris: OECD. Olibe, Kingsley O. and Larry C. Crumbley (1997), “Determinants of U.S. Private Foreign Direct Investment in OPEC Nations: From Public and Non-Public Policy Perspective.” Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, Summer, 9(2), 31-355. Riedel, James (1975), “The Nature and Determinants of Export-Oriented Direct Foreign Investment in a Developing Country：A Case Study of Taiwan.” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 111(3), 505-528. Root, Franklin R. and Ahmed A. Ahmed (1978), “The Influence of Policy Instruments on Manufacturing Direct Foreign Investment in Developing Countries.” Journal of International Business Studies, Winter, 9(3), 81-93. Root, Franklin R. and Ahmed A. Ahmed (1979), “Empirical Determinants of Manufacturing Direct Foreign Investment in Developing Countries.” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 27(4), 751-767. Scaperlanda, Anthony E. and Lawrence J. Mauer (1969), “The Determinants of U.S. direct investment in the E.E.C.” American Economic Review, 59(4), 558-568. Sun, Qian, Wilson Tong, and Qiao Yu (2002), “Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Across China.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 21, 79-113. Tallman, Stephen. B. (1988), “Home Country Political Risk And Foreign Direct Investment In The United States.” Journal of International Business Studies, Summer, 19(2), 219-234. Tsai, Pan-long (1991), “Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment In Taiwan: An Alternative Approach With Time-Series Date.” World Development, 19(2/3), 275-285. UNCTAD (1997), “Transnational Corporations, Market Structure and Competition Policy.” World Investment Report 1997. UNCTAD (2003), “FDI Policies for Development：National and International Perspectives.” World Investment Report 2003. UNCTAD (2005), “Transnational Corporations and Internationalization of R&D.” World Investment Report 2005. Van, Loo F. (1977), “The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Investment in Canada .” Review of Economics and Statistics, 59, 474-481. Vernon, Raymond (1966), “International Investment and International Trade in the Product Trade.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80, 190-207. Walia, Tirlochan Singh (1976), An Empirical Evaluation of Selected Theories of Foreign Direct Investment by U.S. Based Multinational Corporations, Ph.D. Dissertation. New York: New York University. Woodward, Douglas P. and Robert J. Rolfe (1993), “The Location of Export-oriented Foreign Direct Investment in the Caribbean Basin,” Journal of International Business Studies, 24(1/4), 121-143. Yang, Jeannie Yih Yun, Nicolaas Groenewold, and Moonjoong Tcha ( 2000 ), “The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Australia.” Economic Record, East lvanhoe: Mar. 76(232), 45-54. Young, Stephen and Ping Lan (1997), “Technology Transfer to China through Foreign Direct Investment.” Regional Studies, 31, 7, 669-679. Zhang, Kevin Honglin, and Shunfeng Song (2000),, “The Role of Inward FDI in China.” China Economic Review, 11(4), 385-396. Zhang, Wei and Robert Taylor (2001), “EU Technology Transfer to China: The Automotive Industry as a Case Study.” Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 6, 2, 261-274。
Description:	碩士國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程 93921027 94
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093921027
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Master for Eminent Public Administrators] Theses

Files in This Item:

File	Size	Format
92102701.pdf	56Kb	Adobe PDF2	1087	View/Open
92102702.pdf	78Kb	Adobe PDF2	1181	View/Open
92102703.pdf	69Kb	Adobe PDF2	1178	View/Open
92102704.pdf	18Kb	Adobe PDF2	1097	View/Open
92102705.pdf	53Kb	Adobe PDF2	1055	View/Open
92102706.pdf	47Kb	Adobe PDF2	1088	View/Open
92102707.pdf	43Kb	Adobe PDF2	1090	View/Open
92102708.pdf	215Kb	Adobe PDF2	3607	View/Open
92102709.pdf	176Kb	Adobe PDF2	2948	View/Open
92102710.pdf	288Kb	Adobe PDF2	3456	View/Open
92102711.pdf	210Kb	Adobe PDF2	2128	View/Open
92102712.pdf	211Kb	Adobe PDF2	2402	View/Open
92102713.pdf	101Kb	Adobe PDF2	1168	View/Open
92102714.pdf	98Kb	Adobe PDF2	1332	View/Open

社群 sharing

Loading...