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    题名: 俄羅斯戰略火箭軍裁併之研究
    作者: 陳建志
    CHEN, JIAN-ZHI
    贡献者: 王定士
    連弘宜
    彼薩列夫




    陳建志
    CHEN, JIAN-ZHI
    关键词: 戰略火箭軍
    軍事準則
    克里姆林宮政治
    謝爾蓋耶夫
    克瓦什寧
    Strategic Missile Forces
    military doctrine
    Kremlin politics
    Igor Sergeyev
    Anatoliy Kvashnin
    日期: 2004
    上传时间: 2009-09-17 17:42:38 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本論文旨試圖透過克里姆林宮政治暨嚇阻戰略研究途徑,剖析俄羅斯將獨立軍種「戰略火箭軍」裁併至空軍編制的原因。
    本論文假設戰略火箭軍遭到裁併是基於下列兩項原因:
    第一、俄羅斯武裝力量本身的態度與國內幾次重大政治鬥爭,導致俄羅斯必須修正軍事準則。
    由於總統葉里欽在獨立初期,並沒有為俄羅斯的外交與國家安全政策領域構築一個法制化、有效率的決策系統,造成諸如國防部、外交部、總參謀部、聯邦安全會議、國防會議與國家軍事檢察署等相關機構,彼此間不斷爭奪軍事資源、議題詮釋權,政治鬥爭頻仍。另外,在某些政治危機中,例如1993年砲轟國會事件、第一次車臣戰爭以及1996年總統大選,葉里欽需要拉攏軍方支持以應付反對勢力,這就讓俄羅斯武裝力量有機會涉足克里姆林宮政治。結果是國家安全政策領域呈現各行其道、莫衷一是的混亂局面,並且有愈來愈多的政府官員對於在國家安全政策領域中攫取政治利益躍躍欲試。
    其次,俄羅斯地緣政治環境的劇烈惡化導致龐大的反軍事改革勢力。
    為了要在冷戰後與美國保持最低限度的戰略均勢狀態,好保障俄羅斯的國家利益及國際地位,並且順利解決因宗教或種族要素在俄羅斯或獨立國協境內所引發的區域戰爭或軍事衝突,有些官員諸如思科可夫、謝爾蓋耶夫等人主張俄羅斯應該繼續維持強大的戰略武力,特別是著名的戰略火箭軍。他們反對軍事改革以及裁減軍備。而由於當前國防預算困窘,葉里欽與普欽必須兩害相權取其輕,整肅拒絕裁軍的官員或是部隊。
    在謝爾蓋耶夫與克瓦什寧激烈的政治鬥爭結束後,最後的贏家克瓦什寧終於如願以償,將戰略火箭軍予以裁併,由軍種單位降為兵種單位。不過俄羅斯的戰略武力仍然將在未來扮演極具影響力的角色。
    The purpose of the thesis is to attempt to analyze the factors that exert great impact on the reduction of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces(SMF) in status from a separate branch of service to a separate command from the perspective of Kremlin politics and Strategy of Deterrence.
    This thesis takes the position that the SMF has been reduced by two main motives:
    First, the attitude of the Russian army and domestic political struggle has forced the Russian government to adjust its military doctrine.
    Due to Yeltsin failing to set up a well-organized and efficient system for foreign and national security policy decision-making, so the struggle between the key ministries involved in foreign and security policy- the Foreign Ministry, the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, the National Security Council, the Defense Council, the State Military Inspectorate- was hard. And in some political crises, such as the bloody event of Oct. 1993, the presidential election in 1996, and the crisis in Chechnya, Yeltsin needed army to defeat the counterforces. The Russian army has became more influential in politics. As a result, the decision-making process has been chaotic and confused, and various bureaucratic players have often been able to impose their their own special interests on the security policy agenda.
    Second, the worsening geopolitical situation has brought about considerable resistance to the military reform.
    In order to keep minimum strategic balance with the United States, ensure its national interest and international status and settle local wars or military conflicts caused by religion and ethnic conflicts within Russia’s own territory and Commonwealth of Independent States, some officials like Yuri Skokov and Igor Sergeyev advocated maintaining a strong nuclear deterrent force, especially the prominent role for the SMF. The president was likely to face considerable resistance to the reform. Owing to the current financial constraints on defense spending, Yeltsin and Putin carried out a purge of army officers who were against arms reduction.
    After the hard political struggle between Igor Sergeyev and Anatoliy Kvashnin, the winner- Kvashnin demanded the SMF must be reduced in status from a separate branch of service to a separate command. But the Russian strategic force will still play influential role in the near future.
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    貳、英文部分
    一、書籍
    Arms Control and Disarmament Agreements: Texts and Histories of Negotiation. Washington D. C. : United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, 1980.
    Aron, Leon. The Emergent Priorities of Russian Foreign Policy. Washington D. C. : USA Institute of Peace Presses, 1997.
    Babbage, Ross. The Soviets in the Pacific in the 1990s. Australia: Pergamon Press, 1989.
    Baranovsky, Vladmir. Russia and Europe: The Emerging Security Agenda. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997.
    Barylski, Robert V.. The Soldier in Russian Politics: Duty, Dictatorship and Democracy under Gorbachev and Yeltsin. New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 1998.
    Blackaby, Frank and Jozef Goldblat eds.. No First Use. London: Taylor and Francis, 1984.
    Blank, Stephen J.. Russia’s Armed Forces on The Brink of Reform. Carlisle Barracks: U. S. Army War College, 1998.
    Blank, Stephen. The Russian Military Is Time Running Out? Washington D. C. : JINSA, 1998.
    Brams, Steven J.. & D. Marc Kilgour. Game Theory and National Security. New York: Basil Blackwell, 1988.
    Breslauer, George W.. Khrushchev and Brezhnev as Leaders: Building Authority in Soviet Politics. London: George Allen & Unwin, 1982.
    Brodie, Bernard. Strategy in the Missile Age. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1959.
    Brown, Seyom. The Faces of Power. New York: Columbia University Press, 1983.
    Byzgalin, Alexander and Andrei Kolganov, trans by Renfrey Clarke. Bloody October in Moscow: Political Repression in the Name of Reform. New York: Monthly Review Press, 1994.
    Chang, Gordon H.. Friends and Enermies: The United States, China and the Soviet Union 1948-1972. Standford: Standford University Press, 1999.
    Colton, Timothy J.. Patterns in Post-Soviet Leadership. Colorado: Westview Press, 1995.
    Colton, Timothy J. and Robert Legvold eds.. After the Soviet Union: From Empire to Nations. New York: W. W. Norton, 1992.
    Dinerstein, H. S.. Soviet Strategic Ideas: January 1960. Santa Monica: RAND, 1960.
    Donley, Michael ed.. SALT Handbook. Washington D. C. : Heritage Foundation, 1979.
    Erikson, John ed.. Military-Technical Revolution: Its Impact on Strategy and Foreign Policy. New York: Praeger, 1966.
    Galeotti, Mark. The Age of Anxiety: Security and Politics in Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia. Boston: Addison-Wesley Pub. Co., 1995.
    Gallagher, Matthew P. and Karl F. Spielmann Jr.. Soviet Decision Making forDefense. New York: Praeger, 1972.
    Gorbachev, Mikhail S.. Perestoika: New Thinking for Our Country and the World. U. K. : William Collins Sons & Co. Ltd., 1987.
    Holloway, David. The Soviet Union and the Arms Race. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1984.
    Horelick, Arnold L. and Myron Rush. Strategic Power and Soviet Foreign Policy. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1966.
    Kissinger, Henry A.. The White House Years. Boston: Little Brown & Co., 1979.
    Lambeth, Benjamin S.. The Warrior Who Would Rule Russia: A Profile of Aleksandr Lebed. Santa Monica: RAND, 1996.
    Larrabee, F. Stephen and Theodore W. Karasik. Foreign and Security Policy Decisionmaking Under Yeltsin. Santa Monica: RAND, 1997.
    Mandelbaum, Michael and Strobe Talbott. Reagan and Gorbachev. New York: Random House Inc., 1987.
    Mcbride, James H.. ThetTest Ban Traety. Chicago: Henry Regnery Company, 1967.
    Odom, William. The Collapse of Soviet Military. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1998.
    Oznobistchev, Sergey. The Situation in Russia Today. Alexandria: Center for Naval Analysis, 1998.
    Parrot, Bruce. The Soviet Union and Ballistic Missle Defense. Boulder: Westview Pr., 1987.
    Payne Jr., Samuel B.. The Soviet Union And SALT Mass. Cambridge: The MIT Press, 1980.
    Ponton, Geoffrey. the Soviet Era: Soviet Politics from Lenin to Yeltsin. Cambridge: Blackwell Publishers, 1994.
    Rogov, S.. Military Reform and the Defense Budget of the Russian Federation. Alexandria: Center for Naval Analysis, 1997.
    Russian Military Prospects. Stockholm: Swedish Defense Research Establishment’s Conference, 1998.
    Schelling, T. C.. The Strategy of Conflict. Boston: Harvard University Press, 1960.
    Schlesinger, Arthur M. ed.. Dynamics of World Power: Documentary History of U. S. Foreign Policy 1945-1973. New York: Chelsea House Publishers, 1973.
    Scott, Harriet F. & Scott, Williams F.. The Armed Force of USSR. Boulder: Westview Press, 1984.
    Scott, Harriet F.. Soviet Military Doctrine: Its Continuity 1960-1970. Westport: Hyperion Press, 1981.
    Shlykov, Vitaly V.. Shlykov, The Crisis in the Russian Economy. Carlisle Barracks: U. S. War College, 1997.
    Skilling, Gerdon H. & Franklyn Griffiths, eds.. Interest Groups in Soviet Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1971.
    Sogrin, F.. The Political History of Contemporary Russian 1985-1994. Moscow: Progress-Academy, 1994.
    Sokolovsky, V. D. et al., eds.. Military Strategy: Soviet Doctrine and Concepts. New York: Praeger, 1963.
    Soviet Foreign Policy in the 1980s. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1982.
    Staar, Richard F.. The New Military in Russian. Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1996.
    Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Yearbook 1983. New York: Oxford University Press, 1983.
    Talbott, Strobe. Endgame: Inside Story of SALT II. New York: Harper and Row, 1979.
    The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, Special Report 46. United States: Department of State/Burteau of Public Affairs, 1979.
    Valenta, Jiri and William C. Potter, eds.. Soviet Decisionmaking for National Security. London: Allen and Unwin, 1984.
    Vernon, Graham D. ed.. Soviet Perceptions of War and Peace. Washington, D. C. : National Defense University Press, 1981.
    Waller, J. Michael. Secret Empire. Boulder: Westview Press, 1994.
    Warner III, Edward L.. The Military in Contemporary Soviet Politics. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1978.
    White, Stephen, Alex Pravda and Zvi Gitelman, eds.. Developments in Russian & Post-Soviet Politics. London: The Macmillan Press, 1994.
    二、期刊
    “Attack by Lebed on Kulikov.” Keesing’s Record of World Events 42, 7/8, (Cambridge: Aug 1996): 41235.
    “A Khaki October-The Defense Minister Answer MK’s Question.” The Current Digest of Post-Soviet Press XLV, 40, (Moscow: Nov 1993): 12.
    Bazhanov, Yevgeni. “Top Priorities for Russian Foreign Policy.” New Times (Moscow: Oct 1995): 32-4.
    Blank, Stephen. “Yeltsin Fosters a Military Threat to Democracy.” Transition 2, 16, (Brussels: Aug 1996): 11-15.
    Burt, Richard. “The Scope and Limit of SALT.” Foreign Affairs 56, 4, (New York: Jul 1978): 751-70.
    Chernov, Vladislav. “Significance of the Russian Military Doctrine.” Comparative Strategy 13, 1, (New York: Spring 1994): 161-6.
    “Death of Dudayev.” Keesing’s Record of World Events 42, 4, (Cambridge: Apr 1996): 41061.
    “Decree on a State of Emergency in Moscow.” The Current Digest of Post-Soviet Press XLV, 40, (Moscow: Nov 1993): 4-5.
    Dick, C. J.. “A Bear Without Claws: The Russian Army in the 1990s.” The Journal of Slavic Military Studies (Oxfordshire :Mar 1997): 1-20.
    “Dissent within Military over Invasion.” Keesing’s Record of World Events 40, 11/12, (Cambridge: Dec 1994): 40325.
    Efimov, Nikolai. “The Army, Society and Reforms.” Russian Politics and Law 34, 4, (New York: Jul-Aug 1996): 6-22.
    Gaddy, Clifford G. and Barry W. Ickes. “Russia’s Virtual Economy.” Foreign Affairs 77, 5, (New York: Sep-Oct 1998): 53-67.
    Galeotti, Mark. “Decline & Fall: Crisis Continues for Russia’s Army.” Jane’s Intelligence Review 10, 6, (Surrey: Jun 1998): 3-5.
    Galeotti, Mark. “Decline & Fall: Uniting Russia’s Nuclear Forces.” Jane’s Intelligence Review 11, 4, (Surrey: Nov 1999): 8-9.
    Galeotti, Mark. “Eastern Watch: The Russian Army in Chechenya.” Jane’s Intelligence Review 11, 12, (Surrey: Dec 1999): 8-9.
    “Government changes.” Keesing’s Record of World Events 42, 1, (Cambridge: Jan 1996): 40909-10.
    Gustafson, Thane and Dawn Mann. “Gorbachev’s First Year: Building Power & Authority.” Problem of Communism 35, 3, (Washington D. C. : May-Jun 1986): 1-19.
    “New Defence and Interior Ministers.” Keesing’s Record of World Events 47, 3, (Cambridge: Mar 2001): 44072.
    Odom, William E.. “The Soviet Military in Transition.” Problems of Communism 39, 3, (Washington D. C. : May-Jun 1990): 51-71.
    Parrish, Scott. “Enter Lebed, Exit the Hard-Liners.” Transition (Brussels: Jul 1996): 8-11.
    Parrott, Bruce. “Soviet National Security Under Gorbachev.” Problems of Communism 37, 6, (Washington D. C. : Nov-Dec 1988): 1-36.
    Rush, Myron. “The War Danger in Soviet Policy and Propaganda.” Comparative Strategy 8, 1, (New York: Spring 1989): 1-9.
    Scott, Harriet Fast. “Red Star in Motion.” Air Force Magazine (Arlington: Mar 1985): 58-63.
    Shevtsova, Lilia. “The August Coup and the Soviet Collapse.” Survival 34, 1, (London: Spring 1992): 5-18.
    Soofer, Robert H.. “SDI and Deterrence: A Western Perspective.” Comparative Strategy 7, 1, (New York: Spring 1988): 17-38.
    Sullivan, David S.. “A SALT Debate: Continued Soviet Deception.” Strategic Review 7, 3, (Washington D. C. : Fall 1979): 29-38.
    Tarsakanov, Andrei. “The Rise of Russia’s ‘Military Opposition’.” Transition 2, 16, (Brussels: Aug 1996): 6-10.
    Wettig, Gerhard. “Dimensions of Soviet Arms Control Policy.” Comparative Strategy 7, 1, (New York: Sprung 1988): 1-15.
    White, Stephen. “Yeltsin’s Kingdom or Parliament’s Playground?” Current History 92, 576, (Philadephia: Oct 1993): 309-13.
    White, Stephen, Matthew Wyman and Oleg Kyshtanovskaya. “Parties and Politics in Post-Communist Russia.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 28, 2, (Los Angeles: Jun 1995): 183-202.
    Zakaria, Fareed. “The Reagan Strategy of Containment.” Political Science Quarterly 105, 3, (New York: Fall 1990): 373-95.
    Zamascikov, Sergei. “Gorbachev and the Soviet Military.” Comparative Strategy 7, 3, (New York: Fall 1988): 227-51.
    三、報紙
    “Leading Members of the State Committee for the State of Emergency.” International Herald Tribune 20 Aug 1991, p. 6.
    Lelyveld, Michael S.. “Russian-Israeli Deal Hints at Mid-East Realignment.” Journal of Commerce 22 Dec 1995, p. 1.
    Tolz, Vera. “Problem in Building Democratic Institutions in Russia.” RFE/RL Research Report 4 Mar 1994, p. 2.
    Tolz, Vera. “Russia’s Parliamentary Elections: What Happened and Why.” RFE/RL Research Report 14 Jan 1994, p. 3.
    四、網路資料
    Arbatov, Alexei. “Russian Military Doctrine and Strategic Nuclear Forces to the Year 2000 and Beyond.” Federation of American Scientist, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/arbatov.htm.
    Cavan, Susan J.. “Special Report on Government Dismissal: A Chronology.” Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology, and Policy, Boston University, Apr 1998, http://www.bu.edu/iscip/digest/vol3/ed0306.html.
    Cavan, Susan J.. “Yel`tsin finally begins his second term.” Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology, and Policy, Boston University, 5 Mar 1997, http://www.bu.edu/iscip/digest/vol2/ed4.html.
    “Chernomyrdin Praises Missile Troops at News Conference.” Federation of American Scientist, 21 Feb 1997, http://www.fas.org/news/russia/1997/fbuma12161997001142.htm.
    “Chronology of events.” Centre for Russian studies, Norwegian institute of international affairs, http://www.nupi.no/cgi-win/Russland/krono.exe?1779.
    Cohen, Ariel. “The Succession Struggle Begins in Russia.” The Heritage Foundation, 13 Aug 1996, http://www.heritage.org/Research/RussiaandEurasia/EM457.cfm.
    “Dedicated to the second anniversary of the Kursk disaster.” On-Line Pravda, http://english.pravda.ru/society/2002/08/12/34337.html.
    “Economic crisis slowed down Russia"s development by 30 years.” On-Line Pravda, http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/89/357/13033_crisis.html.
    Foye, Stephen. “Russia’s Unpopular Defense Minister Survives Latest Government Shuffle.” Post-Soviet Prospects, Jul 1995, http://www.csis.org/ruseura/psp/pspiii7.html.
    “Greater Attention Pledged to Russian Triad’s Naval Leg.” Center for Nonproliferation Studies, CNS, http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/020304.htm.
    “Intelligence Related Laws and Edicts.” Federation of American Scientists, http://www.fas.org/irp/world/russia/docs/.
    Kipp, Jacob. “The Russian Military and the 1995 Parliamentary Elections: A Primer.” Foreign Military Studies Office, 5 Oct 1995, http://call.army.mil/fmso/fmsopubs/issues/ruselec.htm.
    “Leaders of Russia(Russian Federation).” Zate’s Political Collections, ZPC,
    http://www.terra.es/personal2/monolith/russia.htm.
    “Lebed’s “political counterbalances” enhance their influence on the president.” National News Service, http://www.nns.ru/chronicle/archive/soviet1-e.html.
    “Letter of February 1999: Uniting Supreme Command of Strategic Deterrence Forces is a Source of Contradictions in the Ministry of Defense.” PIR Arms Control Letters, http://www.pricenter.org/acl/messages/57.html.
    “Marshal Reformer Locked in Strategic Conflict.” The Russia Journal, http://russiajournal.com/start/analysis/article_ 4_1208.htm.
    Naftali, Timothy. “Cuban Missile Crisis Highlights: Origins.” University of Virginia, http://millercenter.virginia.edu/pubs/kremlin/kremlin_origins.pdf.
    “Oleg Ivanovich Lobov.”Archontology.org, http://www.archontology.org/nations/rus/rus_govt2/lobov.php.
    “President Putin-s ?soft¦ appointments: the Kremlin seems to be taking control of power structures.” On-Line Pravda, http://english.pravda.ru/politics/2001/03/29/3209.html.
    “Program Summary for 24/8/98.” CBC radio, 24 Aug 1998, http://www.cbc.ca/insite/WORLD_REPORT_TORONTO/1998/8/24.html.
    “RT-2UTTH-Topol-M SS-27.” Federation of American Scientists, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/icbm/rt-2pmu.htm.
    “RT-21M / SS-20 SABER.” Global security org., http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/russia/rt-21m.htm.
    “Russia The Security Council.” Russians Abroad, http://www.russiansabroad.com/russian_history_294.html.
    “Russia, USA signed START II 10 years ago.” On-Line Pravda, 3 Jan 2003, http://english.pravda.ru/diplomatic/2003/01/03/41576.html.
    “Russians support Putin.” On-Line Pravda, http://english.pravda.ru/main/2001/03/28/.
    “Russian Defence Minister On Strategic Missile Forces Reform.” On-Line Pravda, http://english.pravda.ru/politics/2001/12/17/23804.html.
    “Russian Mp Thinks Russia Should Review Its Programme For Developing Strategic Forces.” On-Line Pravda, http://english.pravda.ru/politics/2001/12/17/23823.html.
    “Russian’s Military Doctrine.” Free Republic.com, May 2000, http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a394aa0466bfe.htm.
    “Sergei Kiriyenko, former Prime Minister of the Russian Federation: Russia Chat to discuss the Russian elections.” CNN.com, 23 Mar 2000, http://www.cnn.com/COMMUNITY/transcripts/2000/3/sergei/.
    Shlykov, Vitaly. “The War in Chechnya: Implications for Military Reform and Creation of Mobile Forces.” Global Security.org, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1995/shl.htm.
    Sokov, Nikolai. “Russia`s 2000 Military Doctrine.” Nuclear Threat Initiative, Jul 2004, http://www.nti.org/db/nisprofs/over/doctrine.htm.
    “Strategic Missile Troops.” Federation of American Scientist, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/agency/rvsn.htm.
    “Strategic Missile Troops Increase Combat Capability.” Federation of American Scientist, http://www.fas.org/news/russia/1997/fbuma12161997001142.htm.
    “Text of Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty.” The White House, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/05/20020524-3.html.
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    Traynor, Ian. “Moscow delays military revamp.” The Russia Journal, http://www.therussiajournal.com/index.htm?obj=4098.
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    Volk, Evgueni. “Who’s Who is Primakov’s New Russian Government.” The Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/Research/RussiaandEurasia/BG1232.cfm.
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    Yakovlev, Vladimir Nikolayevich. “The SMF`s Special Mission.” Federation of American Scientists, http://www.fas.org/news/russia/1997/drsov137_s97017.htm.
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    國立政治大學
    俄羅斯研究所
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