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| 題名: | 影響選民在選舉與公民投票因素之比較研究：以2018年台中市為例
A Comparative Study of Factors Affecting Voters in Elections and Referendums:Taichung City in 2018 |
| 作者: | 顧之馨
Ku, Chih-Hsin |
| 貢獻者: | 游清鑫
顧之馨
Ku, Chih-Hsin |
| 關鍵詞: | 公民投票
併行選舉
投票行為
政黨認同
候選人偏好
議題因素
地域性因素
Referendum
Concurrent Elections
Voting Behavior
Party Identification
Candidate Preference
Issue Voting
Regional Factors |
| 日期: | 2025 |
| 上傳時間: | 2025-09-01 16:10:56 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 本研究聚焦於選舉投票與公民投票併行時選民行為的互動與影響，特別以2018年臺灣九合一選舉與全國性公民投票合併舉行為例，探討選民在面對多重投票任務時的行為邏輯與決策因素。自2003年《公民投票法》施行以來，臺灣的公投制度歷經多次改革，2018年十案公投與地方選舉同日舉行，引發社會對併選效果與正當性的廣泛討論，尤其在2019年《公投法》再次修法後，併選問題成為政治攻防焦點。支持者主張併選能提升參與度並降低投票成本，反對者則關切其對議題認知與投票判斷造成干擾，並可能淪為政黨操作工具。
在此背景下，本研究旨在回答以下問題：（一）選民參與選舉與公投行為是否具關聯性；（二）政黨認同對市長選舉與政黨關聯公投議案之影響是否一致；（三）候選人偏好是否也影響候選人關聯公投議案的投票選擇；（四）政策議題因素如何影響不同類型投票決策；（五）地域性認知是否左右投票結果。透過系統性文獻回顧與實證數據分析，本研究試圖呈現公民投票與市長選舉在併選結構下的行為邏輯差異。研究架構包含兩部分：首先，運用交叉表分析探討市長選舉與公投的參與行為關聯性；其次，採用邏輯斯迴歸模型比較政黨認同、候選人偏好、議題立場、政策評價與地域認知等因素在不同投票選擇中的解釋力與效果。
研究結果顯示：一、參與市長選舉者幾乎同步領取公投票，顯示選舉投票與公投參與的強烈關聯性；二、政黨認同對市長選舉具強大預測力，對第7、8、9案公投則解釋力遞減；其中對國民黨偏好影響相對穩定，民進黨支持者則表現出議題彈性高；三、候選人偏好對市長選舉決策影響顯著，但對公投第7案預測力薄弱；四、對中央政府處理兩岸關係與能源政策的評價在市長選舉中具高影響力，但在相關公投案中解釋力較弱；五、民眾對同性婚姻合法化的立場對第10至15案公投投票具高解釋力，對市長選舉影響則較低；六、空污嚴重感受對市長選舉與第7案影響有限，但候選人治理能力評價在兩者中皆具顯著預測力。
總結而言，併行選舉下的投票行為受到多元因素交互影響，其中政黨認同與候選人評價在市長選舉中作用顯著，而在公投中則視議題性質而定，政策立場與價值觀態度在特定公投案中展現關鍵解釋力。研究結果有助於理解併選對民主參與與選民決策品質之影響，並提供選舉制度設計與政治溝通策略之實證參考。
This study investigates voter behavior under concurrent elections and referendums, focusing on Taiwan’s 2018 nine-in-one local elections held alongside ten national referendums. The event triggered debate on the effects and legitimacy of concurrent voting. While advocates emphasize increased participation and reduced costs, critics warn of voter confusion and partisan manipulation.
The study explores whether participation in elections correlates with referendum turnout and how factors such as party identification, candidate preference, policy attitudes, and regional perceptions shape voting behavior. Two analytical approaches were used: cross-tabulation to examine participation linkage, and logistic regression to assess the predictive power of key variables across mayoral and referendum votes.
Main findings reveal that electoral participation strongly drives referendum participation. Party identification and candidate preference significantly influence mayoral voting but have weaker and more variable effects on referendum outcomes. Issue-specific attitudes—particularly toward energy policy and same-sex marriage—emerge as stronger predictors in policy-based referendums. Regional perceptions and candidate evaluations also shape voting behavior, though with varying intensity.
Overall, voter behavior in concurrent elections reflects the interaction of partisan, candidate, and issue-based factors. This research offers insights into electoral design and democratic engagement in multi-ballot elections. |
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| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國家發展研究所
108261019 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108261019 |
| 資料類型: | thesis |
| 顯示於類別: | [國家發展研究所] 學位論文
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