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| Title: | 中國碳市場的政策效應評估：合成控制法的實證
Evaluating the Policy Effects of China's Carbon Market: An Empirical Assessment Using the Synthetic Control Method |
| Authors: | 李恆嘉
Lee, Heng-Chia |
| Contributors: | 莊奕琦
Chuang, Yih-Chyi
李恆嘉
Lee, Heng-Chia |
| Keywords: | 碳排放交易系統
合成控制法
雙碳
中國
Emissions Trading System
Synthetic Control Method
Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals
China |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-09-01 15:46:59 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 隨著全球氣候變遷與極端氣候事件頻率升高，碳排放管制日益成為各國政策焦點。本研究針對中國七個碳交易試點省市（北京、上海、天津、廣東、重慶、湖北、福建），運用合成控制法（Synthetic Control Method, SCM），評估碳排放權交易制度對人均二氧化碳排放量的實質影響。透過構建政策實施前高度擬合的合成對照組，本研究有效克服傳統DiD對平行趨勢假設的依賴，進一步結合Placebo Test、Post/Pre-MSPE Ratio與敏感性檢驗檢等一系列檢定來測試模型的穩定性。
實證結果顯示，北京、廣東、重慶、湖北與福建在政策實施後皆展現顯著的減排效果，尤其北京與重慶的差距幅度最為顯著；而上海與天津則未出現明確偏離，可能與產業結構與配額制度設計有關。進一步的經濟分析發現，多數試點地區在推行碳交易系統後，不僅未抑制經濟成長，反而伴隨產業升級與綠色消費擴張，顯示碳交易具備引導經濟轉型的潛力。
本研究從區域異質性出發，揭示碳市場成效受產業結構、政策配套與地方治理能力共同影響，為後續全國碳市場的優化提供量化依據與政策建議，並作為其他國家採行探交易制度的政策參考。
As global climate change intensifies and extreme weather events become more frequent, carbon emission regulation has emerged as a major focus of national policy agendas. This study applies the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to evaluate the causal impact of China's Emissions Trading System (ETS) on per capita CO₂ emissions across seven pilot regions: Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Chongqing, Hubei, and Fujian. By constructing synthetic control units that closely match the treated provinces prior to policy implementation, the study effectively overcomes the limitations of the traditional Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach, particularly its reliance on the parallel trends assumption. A series of robustness checks, including placebo tests, post/pre-MSPE ratios, and sensitivity analyses, further validate the stability of the findings.
Empirical results demonstrate that five provinces—Beijing, Guangdong, Chongqing, Hubei, and Fujian—exhibited significant reductions in carbon emissions after the policy took effect, with the most pronounced effects observed in Beijing and Chongqing. In contrast, Shanghai and Tianjin did not display notable divergences, which may be attributed to differences in their industrial structures and allocation mechanisms. Further economic analysis reveals that ETS implementation did not hinder economic growth; instead, it coincided with industrial upgrading and the expansion of green consumption. These findings suggest that carbon trading has the potential to guide low-carbon economic transitions.
This study starts from the perspective of regional heterogeneity and reveals that the effectiveness of carbon markets is jointly influenced by industrial structure, supporting policies, and local governance capacity. It provides quantitative evidence and policy recommendations for the optimization of the forthcoming national carbon market and serves as a policy reference for other countries considering the adoption of emissions trading systems. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
112258045 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112258045 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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