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| 題名: | 電動車改善空氣品質對健康的影響與效益評估
Evaluating the Health Impacts and Benefits of Air Quality Improvements from Electric Vehicles in Taiwan |
| 作者: | 黃品瑄
Huang, Pin-Xuan |
| 貢獻者: | 蕭代基
黃品瑄
Huang, Pin-Xuan |
| 關鍵詞: | 電動車
空氣品質
BenMAP
健康效益
風險降低之願付價值
Electric vehicles
Air quality
BenMAP
Health impact assessment
Willingness to pay for a micro risk reduction |
| 日期: | 2025 |
| 上傳時間: | 2025-09-01 15:45:48 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 本研究探討電動車推廣政策對臺灣空氣品質及民眾健康的影響，並評估其效益。空氣品質對健康的影響包括罹病（morbidity）與死亡（mortality），降低罹病風險的效益包括減少的醫療費用與未工作損失，降低死亡風險的效益評估乃透過民眾對死亡風險降低之願付價值（willingness to pay, WTP）來衡量。
首先，本健康影響及效益評估設定三種電動車情境，包括基準情境（Base）、電動車全面普及之燃煤發電情境（Electric Vehicles Thermal Power, EVTP）及電動車普及之潔淨能源發電情境（Electric Vehicles Clean Power, EVCP），其次，分別比較EVCP、EVTP情境相較於Base對空氣品質與健康的影響及效益之大小。評估的污染物包括細懸浮微粒（PM2.5）、氮氧化物（Nitrogen Oxide, NOx）、二氧化硫（Sulphur Dioxide, SO2）與臭氧（Ozone, O3）。
在空氣品質影響方面，本研究使用Li et al.（2016）模擬2010 年時三種情境的空氣品質，在健康影響方面，使用BenMAP（Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program）模型，BenMap全面評估國際流行病學文獻，選取適當的空氣品質健康影響函數（Health Impact Functions）研究成果，量化評估各情境下各種空氣污染物對慢性下呼吸道疾病（PM2.5、O3、NO2）、心臟疾病、腦血管疾病、肺癌、帕金森氏症與癡呆症的罹病率與全死因死亡率（PM2.5、O3、NO2、 SO2）之影響。
研究結果顯示，在罹病方面，與 Base相比，EVCP 與 EVTP情境下的PM2.5空氣品質改善可帶來罹病人數期望值的減少，PM₂.₅ 造成的心臟疾病分別減少 24,266 與 19,466 人，腦血管疾病則分別減少 10,155 與 8,092 人，慢性下呼吸道疾病則分別減少 2,903 與 2,312 人。相對地，O₃造成的慢性下呼吸道疾病罹病人數期望值，反而分別增加 2,640 與 1,582 人，而 NO₂ 則分別減少 6,170 與 6,071 人。
進一步就罹病風險降低所帶來的效益進行估算，相較於 Base，EVCP 與 EVTP 情境下的總效益分別為新臺幣 1 億 4 千萬元與 1 億 2千萬元。其中，心臟疾病、腦血管疾病的罹病風險降低效益在EVCP之下分別為新臺幣7,213萬元、2,739 萬元 ；EVTP 之下則分別為新臺幣5,751 萬元、2,174 萬元；慢性下呼吸道疾病則分別是新臺幣4,507萬元與 4,233萬元。
在死亡風險方面，EVCP、EVTP情境和Base相比，PM2.5可帶來死亡人數期望值的減少分別為1,752人、1,390人；NO2分別為6,644人、4,776人；SO2在EVCP之下的死亡人數期望值可減少14人，但EVTP情境下，反而增加251人的死亡人數期望值；O3在EVCP、EVTP情境下濃度皆高於Base，故分別增加40人、3人的死亡人數期望值。
對於死亡風險降低的效益評估，EVCP、EVTP與Base相較下總效益分別為新臺幣3兆3,416億元、新臺幣2兆3,603億元，其中，四種污染物空品改善降低死亡風險的各別總效益分別為：NO2總效益分別為新臺幣2兆6,526億元、1兆9,068億元；PM2.5之總效益分別為新臺幣6,995億元、新臺幣5,550億元，而SO2在EVCP之下總效益為新臺幣55億元，但因SO2在EVTP之下污染物濃度反而提高，故帶來損失新臺幣1,002億元；O3在EVCP、EVTP之下污染物濃度皆比Base高，分別帶來新臺幣159億元、新臺幣11億元的損失。
綜合罹病與死亡風險降低的效益估算，本研究結果顯示，在EVCP情境下之總效益為3兆3,418億元、EVTP為2兆3,604億元。
This study investigates the impacts of policies promoting electric vehicles (EVs) on air quality and public health in Taiwan and evaluates the associated benefits. Health impacts are considered along two dimensions—morbidity and mortality. The benefits from reducing morbidity risk include avoided medical expenditures and avoided productivity (work-loss) costs, whereas the benefits from reducing mortality risk are valued using individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the risk of death.
We specify three scenarios for the health-impact and benefit assessment: a Base; an EV adoption scenario primarily powered by thermal generation (Electric Vehicles Thermal Power, EVTP); and an EV adoption scenario primarily powered by clean energy (Electric Vehicles Clean Power, EVCP). We then compare how EVCP and EVTP, relative to the Base, affect air quality and health benefits. The pollutants assessed include fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅), nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and ozone (O₃).
For air-quality impacts, we employ Li et al. (2016) to simulate 2010 air quality under the three scenarios. For health impacts, we use the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), which synthesizes international epidemiological evidence to select appropriate health impact functions and quantify, under each scenario, how air pollutants affect morbidity for chronic lower respiratory disease (PM₂.₅, O₃, NO₂), heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lung cancer, Parkinson’s disease, and dementia, as well as all-cause mortality (PM₂.₅, O₃, NO₂, SO₂).
Morbidity results. Relative to the Base, improvements in PM₂.₅ under EVCP/EVTP reduce the expected number of cases as follows: heart disease by 24,266/19,466, cerebrovascular disease by 10,155/8,092, and chronic lower respiratory disease by 2,903/2,312. By contrast, O₃ increases the expected cases of chronic lower respiratory disease by 2,640/1,582 under EVCP/EVTP, whereas NO₂ reductions decrease cases by 6,170/6,071, respectively.
Monetized morbidity benefits. Compared with the Base, total morbidity-related benefits amount to NT$140 million (EVCP) and NT$120 million (EVTP). Within these totals, the benefits from reduced risks of heart disease and cerebrovascular disease are NT$72.13 million and NT$27.39 million under EVCP, and NT$57.51 million and NT$21.74 million under EVTP; for chronic lower respiratory disease, the benefits are NT$45.07 million (EVCP) and NT$42.33 million (EVTP).
Mortality results. Relative to the Base, expected deaths decrease under EVCP/EVTP by 1,752/1,390 for PM₂.₅ and by 6,644/4,776 for NO₂. For SO₂, deaths decrease by 14 under EVCP but increase by 251 under EVTP. For O₃, concentrations are higher than in the Base under both scenarios, increasing expected deaths by 40 (EVCP) and 3 (EVTP).
Monetized mortality-risk benefits. Relative to the Base, total benefits from reduced mortality risk are NT$3.3416 trillion (EVCP) and NT$2.3603 trillion (EVTP). By pollutant: NO₂ contributes NT$2.6526 trillion (EVCP) and NT$1.9068 trillion (EVTP); PM₂.₅ contributes NT$699.5 billion and NT$555 billion. For SO₂, EVCP yields a benefit of NT$5.5 billion, whereas EVTP entails a loss of NT$100.2 billion because concentrations rise. For O₃, both scenarios yield losses relative to the Base—NT$15.9 billion (EVCP) and NT$1.1 billion (EVTP).
Overall. Combining morbidity and mortality risk reductions, total benefits amount to NT$3.3418 trillion (EVCP) and NT$2.3604 trillion (EVTP). |
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| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
112258009 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112258009 |
| 資料類型: | thesis |
| 顯示於類別: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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