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| 題名: | 台灣對外直接投資額對於國際貿易額之影響在中美貿易戰前後於各地區效果之變化
The Impact of Taiwan's Outward Foreign Direct Investment on International Trade: Regional Effects Before and After the China-U.S. Trade War |
| 作者: | 朱育呈
Chu, Yu-Cheng |
| 貢獻者: | 蔡致遠
Tsai, Chi-Yuan
朱育呈
Chu, Yu-Cheng |
| 關鍵詞: | 對外直接投資
國際貿易
中美貿易戰
引力模型
Foreign Direct Investment
International Trade
U.S.–China Trade War
Gravity Model |
| 日期: | 2025 |
| 上傳時間: | 2025-09-01 14:55:34 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 本研究旨在探討台灣對外直接投資（Foreign Direct Investment, FDI）對國際貿易額的影響，特別關注中美貿易戰前後在不同地區是否產生異質性效果。本文以2016至2019年為研究期間，以引力模型（Gravity Model）為基礎去建構本研究的模型，而估計方法則使用固定效果模型及Poisson 固定效果模型，探討FDI與台灣出口、進口、出口附加價值、中間財與最終財出口之關聯性。研究發現，台灣對中國的FDI在貿易戰後顯示出與出口額之間的替代效果，而對東協地區的投資則更傾向產生互補效應，顯示生產基地轉移對出口結構具有重大影響。此外，對不同區域的FDI與貿易之關係具有明顯異質性，政策與地緣風險亦是影響貿易與投資互動的重要因素。本研究有助於理解FDI對貿易的多重效果，並為企業布局與政府政策提供實證依據。
This study aims to examine the impact of Taiwan’s outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on international trade flows, with a particular focus on whether heterogeneous effects emerged across different regions before and after the U.S.–China trade war. Using data from 2016 to 2019, the study adopts the gravity model as the theoretical framework and employs both fixed effects and Poisson fixed effects estimation methods. The analysis explores the relationship between FDI and Taiwan’s total exports, imports, export value-added, as well as intermediate and final goods exports. The empirical findings suggest a substitution effect between Taiwan’s FDI in China and its export volume following the onset of the trade war, while FDI directed toward ASEAN countries tends to exhibit a complementary effect. This indicates that the relocation of production bases significantly influences the structure of Taiwan’s exports. Furthermore, the relationship between FDI and trade differs markedly across regions, highlighting the critical role of policy frameworks and geopolitical risks in shaping trade–investment dynamics. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted effects of FDI on trade and offers empirical evidence to inform corporate strategic planning and government policymaking. |
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| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
112351038 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112351038 |
| 資料類型: | thesis |
| 顯示於類別: | [國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文
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