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| Title: | 公共運輸定期票對住宅市場之影響
The Impact of Discounted Transit Passes on the Housing Market |
| Authors: | 陳品睿
Chen, Pin-Jui |
| Contributors: | 林左裕
Lin, Tso-Yu
陳品睿
Chen, Pin-Jui |
| Keywords: | 公共運輸定期票
房價
差異中之差異法
分量迴歸
傾向分數配對法
Transit Passes
Housing prices
Difference-in-differences
Quantile regression
Propensity Score Matching |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-09-01 14:35:32 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究在檢驗雙北「1280公共運輸定期票」於2018年4月16日上路後，透過降低交通成本是否改變住宅市場價格結構與空間分布。資料取自內政部實價登錄個體交易資料，期間涵蓋2017年1月1日至2019年12月31日。以臺北市與新北市為實驗組、桃園市為控制組；經傾向分數配對後，可控制樣本選擇偏誤。研究方法先以半對數差異中之差異法（DID）結合住宅特徵、行政區與時間固定效果等估計整體政策效果，再延伸至分量迴歸 DID 及加入區域虛擬變數交乘項等，以分析價格分量與空間異質性。
實證結果顯示，政策實施後實驗組房價相對控制組平均下降2.15%。在價格結構方面，0.1分位低價住宅呈正向且具顯著，0.75 與 0.9 分位高價住宅跌幅分別為 1.94% 與 3.10%，且均達 1% 顯著，顯示政策對高價市場抑制作用較強，對低價市場則具提升效果。區域分析進一步發現，夜間居住之「通勤區」房價上升 2.36%，而核心就業之「流入區」則下跌 2.96%，反映交通成本降低引導居住需求向都市外圍移動並舒緩市中心價格壓力。最後再加入政策實施期間時顯示，該項政策在實施後六個月開始改變居住區位選擇，顯示政策具有時間延遲性，人們需要時間對於政策進行反應。
總結，定期票政策確實透過交通價格機制改變居住誘因，促成住宅市場「由核心向郊區外圍」的再平衡；對政府而言，後續推動 TPASS 或擴大優惠範圍時，宜同步評估住宅價格外部效應，以強化都市可負擔性與區域均衡發展。
This study evaluates whether the “NT$1,280 Transit Monthly Passes,” launched on 16 April 2018 in the Taipei metropolitan area, altered the structure and spatial distribution of housing prices by lowering commuting costs. Transaction-level data were retrieved from Taiwan’s Actual Price Registration System for the period 1 January 2017 – 31 December 2019. After propensity-score matching to mitigate sample-selection bias, Taipei City and New Taipei City constitute the treatment group, while Taoyuan City serves as the control. A semi-logarithmic difference-in-differences (DID) model incorporating dwelling attributes, district fixed effects, and time fixed effects estimates the average treatment effect; the analysis then extends to DID quantile regressions and interaction terms with regional dummies to capture price-segment and spatial heterogeneity.
The pass reduced mean housing prices in the treatment group by2.15 percent relative to the control. Quantile results reveal a positive and significant effect at the 10th percentile, whereas prices at the 75th and 90th percentiles declined by 1.94 percent and 3.10 percent, respectively, both at the 1 percent significance level—indicating stronger suppression of the high-end market and a mild boost to lower-priced segments. Spatially, prices in “commuting areas” where residents live at night rose by 2.36 percent, while prices in core “inflow areas” where they work fell by 2.96 percent, confirming a shift of housing demand toward the urban periphery. Segmenting the post-policy period shows that these spatial adjustments emerged only after about six months, suggesting a policy response lag.
Overall, the monthly pass reshaped residential location incentives through reduced transport costs, driving a “core-to-suburb” rebalancing of the housing market. Policymakers considering the subsequent TPASS expansion or similar fare subsidies should concurrently assess housing-price externalities to enhance urban affordability and balanced regional development. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
112257021 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112257021 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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