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| Title: | 台灣房市管制措施對房價的影響－以台北市為例
The Impact of Housing Market Regulations on Property Prices in Taiwan: A Case Study of Taipei City |
| Authors: | 陳咨穎
Chen, Tz-Ying |
| Contributors: | 朱芳妮
Chu, Fang-Ni
陳咨穎
Chen, Tz-Ying |
| Keywords: | 貨幣政策
租稅政策
總體審慎政策
房價
斷點迴歸設計
Monetary Policy
Tax Policy
Macroprudential Policy
Housing Prices
Regression Discontinuity Design |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-09-01 14:33:59 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究以台北市為研究對象，探討台灣政府自2010年代以來推行之房市管制措施對住宅價格的影響。研究資料涵蓋2013年6月至2024年6月之實價登錄交易紀錄，運用斷點迴歸設計(RDD)逐一檢視政策效應，並納入政策交乘項以進一步分析政策間的交互作用與整體效果變化。
實證結果顯示，信用管制措施整體而言具有較強的抑價效果；租稅政策效果則較為複雜，部分政策（如房地合一稅2.0）反而出現推升價格之現象，顯示市場可能透過成本轉嫁或需求轉向抵銷政策初衷；貨幣政策變數本身雖多未呈顯著影響，惟與其他政策交互後，部分組合（如貨幣寬鬆與房地合一稅並行）可能弱化原本之政策效果。此外，本研究亦發現，政策推行時機過於集中往往使個別政策效果不易辨識；而在資金環境寬鬆或政策方向不一致的情況下，抑價效果亦面臨較大挑戰。
綜合而言，政策成效不僅取決於工具本身，亦深受實施時機、市場資金環境與政策協同程度等因素影響。未來若欲提升房市調控效能，應審慎選擇政策工具、推行時機與介入強度，並強化跨部會政策協調、預期管理與長期制度設計，以建立更具穩定性之房市調控架構。
This study investigates the impact of housing market regulations implemented by the Taiwanese government since the 2010s on residential property prices, with Taipei City as the research focus. The dataset comprises Actual Price Registration transaction records from June 2013 to June 2024. The study employs Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to examine policy effects individually and incorporates policy interaction terms to further analyze the interactions between policies and changes in overall effects.
The empirical results show that the credit controls have demonstrated relatively strong price-suppressing effects. The effects of tax policies are more complex, with some policies (such as the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0) showing price-increasing phenomena, indicating that the market may have offset policy intentions through cost transfer or demand shifting. While monetary policy variables themselves showed limited statistical significance, when interacting with other policies, certain combinations (such as monetary easing paired with the House and Land Transactions Income Tax) appeared to weaken the original policy effects. Furthermore, this study finds that when policy implementation is overly concentrated, the effect of individual measures becomes difficult to distinguish. Additionally, under conditions of ample liquidity environment or inconsistent policy directions, the price-restraining effect faces greater challenges.
In conclusion, the effectiveness of policies depends not only on the instruments themselves but also on factors such as the timing of implementation, market funding environment, and the degree of policy coordination. To enhance housing market regulation effectiveness in the future, policymakers should carefully consider the choice of tools, implementation timing, and intervention intensity, while strengthening cross-agency policy coordination, expectation management, and long-term institutional design to establish a more stable housing market regulatory framework. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
112257006 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112257006 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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