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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158663


    Title: 中國天然災害風險與分析師預測行為
    Natural Disaster Risk and Analyst Forecast Behavior in China
    Authors: 李佳揚
    Lee, Chia-Yang
    Contributors: 金成隆
    李佳揚
    Lee, Chia-Yang
    Keywords: 天然災害
    分析師預測行為
    管理當局能力
    國有企業
    Natural disaster
    Analyst forecast behavior
    Managerial ability
    State-owned enterprises (SOE)
    Date: 2025
    Issue Date: 2025-08-04 14:52:17 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究旨在探討天然災害風險是否影響分析師預測行為，並以中國企業作為主要研究對象，同時分析管理當局能力與國有企業身分所扮演的調節效果。本研究將災害死亡人數用作天然災害風險的代理變數，並以預測離散度與悲觀偏差衡量分析師預測行為。結果顯示，天災過後將顯著提升分析師預測分歧，分析師對企業盈餘的判斷差異會擴大。然而，天災過後分析師預測的悲觀偏差則無顯著影響。在管理當局能力的調節效果方面，研究發現高管理當局能力企業在災害後預測分歧會上升；相較之下，低管理當局能力企業則表現出分析師預測悲觀化的傾向。此外，針對國有企業身分的調節效果，結果顯示天災對非國有企業的預測分歧影響較大；而對於國有企業，天災則降低了分析師的悲觀預測傾向。
    本研究揭示天然災害風險如何透過資訊中介擾動市場預期，並凸顯管理能力與制度環境之關鍵角色，為理解天然災害對資訊中介機制的影響提供實證證據，並有助於辨識企業韌性來源與深化對中國市場制度特徵的了解。
    This study examines whether natural disaster risk affects analyst forecasting behavior in Chinese enterprises, analyzing the moderating effects of management capability and state ownership. Using disaster death tolls as a proxy for natural disaster risk, the study measures analyst behavior through forecast dispersion and pessimistic bias. Results show that natural disasters significantly increase analyst forecast disagreement, expanding differences in earnings judgments. However, disasters have no significant impact on pessimistic bias. For moderating effect of managerial ability, high-managerial ability firms experience increased forecast dispersion after disasters, while low- managerial ability firms show pessimistic forecasting tendencies. Regarding state ownership, disasters have greater impact on forecast dispersion for non-state enterprises, while for state-owned enterprises, disasters reduce pessimistic forecasting tendencies.
    The study reveals how natural disasters disrupt market expectations through information intermediation, highlighting the key role of management capability and institutional environment. It provides empirical evidence for understanding disaster impacts on information mechanisms and helps identify sources of corporate resilience and deepen understanding of China's market institutional characteristics.
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    會計學系
    112353029
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112353029
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Accounting] Theses

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