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| 題名: | 台灣高齡化對詐騙案發生率的影響
The Impact of Population Aging on Fraud Incident Rates – Evidence from Taiwan |
| 作者: | 林園喬
Lin, Yuan-Chiao |
| 貢獻者: | 黃智聰
Huang, Jr-Tsung
林園喬
Lin, Yuan-Chiao |
| 關鍵詞: | 高齡化
詐騙案件發生率
空間自迴歸模型
數位素養
防詐政策
Aging
Fraud Incidence Rate
Spatial Autoregressive Model
Digital Literacy
Anti-Fraud Policy |
| 日期: | 2025 |
| 上傳時間: | 2025-08-04 14:47:22 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 隨著台灣社會邁入超高齡化階段，詐騙案件發生率亦呈現顯著上升趨勢，成為當前亟需關注之社會問題。高齡者因認知能力下降、數位適應力不足及社會孤立，易淪為詐騙犯罪之高風險受害群體。為釐清高齡化與詐騙案件間之關聯性，本研究以2011年至2023年間台灣20個縣市資料為樣本，採用空間自迴歸模型（Spatial Autoregressive Model, SAR）進行實證分析，探討高齡人口比例對詐騙案件發生率之影響，並控制失業率、獨居老人數、破獲率、志工參與程度、教育程度、網路使用率、儲蓄率及都市化程度等變數。
研究結果顯示，高齡人口比例對詐騙案件發生率具有顯著正向影響，驗證高齡化社會下老年族群詐騙風險確實升高。此外，失業率與破獲率亦與詐騙案件具顯著關聯，顯示經濟因素與執法成效對詐騙發生具重要影響。空間自我相關係數亦達顯著水準，反映詐騙案件存在明顯區域擴散效應。
本研究結果可為政府制定防詐政策提供實證依據，建議強化高齡者數位素養培訓、擴大社區關懷網絡，並提升警政破案能力，以降低高齡化社會中詐騙案件之發生風險。
As Taiwan transitions into a super-aged society, the incidence rate of fraud cases has shown a significant upward trend, becoming an urgent social issue. Elderly individuals, due to cognitive decline, limited digital literacy, and social isolation, are highly vulnerable to fraud victimization. To clarify the relationship between aging and fraud incidence, this study employs a Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) to analyze panel data from 20 counties in Taiwan from 2011 to 2023. The model examines the impact of the elderly population ratio on fraud incidence, while controlling for unemployment rate, number of solitary elderly under social care, fraud case clearance rate, volunteer participation, educational attainment, internet usage rate, savings rate, and degree of urbanization.
The empirical results indicate that the proportion of elderly population has a significant positive effect on fraud incidence, confirming the elevated fraud risk among the elderly in an aging society. Additionally, unemployment rate and clearance rate are also significantly associated with fraud incidence, highlighting the influence of economic factors and law enforcement effectiveness. The spatial autoregressive coefficient is significant, suggesting a clear spatial diffusion effect of fraud cases.
This study provides empirical evidence to inform government anti-fraud policies. It is recommended to enhance digital literacy training for the elderly, expand community support networks, and strengthen law enforcement capacity to reduce the risk of fraud in an aging society. |
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三、 網站資料與數據來源
中華民國統計資訊網，縣市重要指標，取自網址: https://winstacity.dgbas.gov.tw/DgbasWeb/ZWeb/StateFile_ZWeb.aspx
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行政院內政部，戶政司全球資訊網，取自網址: https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/portal/346 |
| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
112921080 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112921080 |
| 資料類型: | thesis |
| 顯示於類別: | [行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文
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