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| Title: | 以財政穩定為目的探討我國成立主權財富基金之可行性
An Exploration of the Feasibility of Establishing a Sovereign Wealth Fund in Taiwan for the Purpose of Fiscal Stability |
| Authors: | 李佩華
Lee, Pei-Hua |
| Contributors: | 陳國樑
Chen, Kuo-Liang
李佩華
Lee, Pei-Hua |
| Keywords: | 主權基金
政府財政狀況
外匯存底
System GMM
Sovereign Wealth Fund
government's fiscal position
foreign exchange reserves
System GMM |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 14:44:02 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文以實證研究來探討我國成立以財政穩定為目的之主權財富基金 (Sovereign Wealth Fund, SWF，以下簡稱主權基金) 可行性，分二個部分進行，第一部分就成立主權基金的決定因素，分別以最小平方法 (Ordinary Least Squares, OLS)、羅吉斯迴歸 (Logistic Regression, LOGIT) 及Probit迴歸 (Probit Regression, PROBIT)，檢測影響成立主權基金決定因素的機率，第二部分則針對主權基金能否改善政府財政狀況，透過固定效果模型 (Fixed Effects Model, FE)、FE結合工具變數 (Fixed Effects Instrumental Variable, FEIV) 及系統化一般動差法 (System Generalized Method of Moments, SGMM)，檢測主權基金的成立對於政府財政狀況的影響。第一部分的實證結果顯示，自然資源、外匯存底、經常帳餘額及人均GDP對於成立主權基金的機率有顯著正向影響，而一般政府未償債務餘額則對其有負面的影響，另外，在非經濟因素上，「總統制與專制國家」及「選舉發生年」皆會影響主權基金成立的機率；第二部分的實證結果則顯示，成立主權基金對一國的政府收支餘絀具有顯著正向影響，反映主權基金的成立確實有助於改善政府的財政狀況。因此在我國擁有高額外匯存底的情況下，本文進一步建議我國成立主權基金的可行性，期藉由提高政府資源利用效果、創造獲利，達成改善政府財政狀況的目標。
This study examines the feasibility of establishing a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) in Taiwan with the aim of enhancing fiscal stability by empirical research. This study is divided into two parts. The first part employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Logistic Regression (LOGIT), and Probit Regression (PROBIT) models to estimate the likelihood that various economic and political factors effect the establishment of SWF. The empirical results show that natural resources rents, foreign exchange reserves, current account, and GDP per capita have significantly positive effect on the probability of establishing SWF, while general government debt stock has a negative effect. In addition, non-economic factors such as presidential system, authoritarian regime, and election year are also found to be significant determinants of SWF establishment. The second part examines whether the establishment of SWF can improve the government's fiscal position by using the Fixed Effects Model (FE), Fixed Effects Instrumental Variables (FEIV), and the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM). The results indicate that the SWF has a significantly positive effect on a country's fiscal balance, revealing that the SWF can effectively contribute to improving fiscal position. Therefore, in light of Taiwan’s substantial foreign exchange reserves, this study concludes that the SWF is a feasible policy option to enhance the efficiency of government resources utilization and generate financial returns, which may help to improve the government's fiscal position. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
110921018 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110921018 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文
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