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| Title: | 全球性危機與能源市場風險：研析國際能源市場變動兼論市場風險監理
Global Crises and Energy Market Risks: An Analysis of International Energy Market Volatility and Market Risk Regulation |
| Authors: | 陳梅
Chen, Mei |
| Contributors: | 陳秉逵
陳梅
Chen, Mei |
| Keywords: | 能源商品金融化
市場集中度
投資組合理論
能源市場安全指數
Energy commodity financialization
Market concentration
Modern portfolio theory
Energy market security index |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 14:34:07 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本論文發現在經歷2019年Covid-19全球疫情、2022年俄烏戰爭等一系列極端事件後，引發之全面性能源危機對國際能源市場影響廣度及深度均超越歷次石油危機，突顯出全球能源安全系統面對極端事件時的風險控管的不足和因應機制之困境。有別於傳統能源研究針對供應導向與國家層級安全，近年的風險波動顯示出國際能源市場表現出市場整合和金融化趨勢，因此本論文從市場層面切入，全面檢視國際能源市場的系統結構與風險分布，利用市場集中度及投資組合理論架構建構國際能源市場風險評估模型，以量化模型分析Covid-19疫情和俄烏戰爭等極端事件後，國際市場與主要進口國之系統性風險、特定性風險和市場集中度波動。本論文發現整合程度與成熟度對能源市場韌性影響更為關鍵，整合程度與成熟度越高的市場，其韌性越佳。並且提出各種進口國對不同類型的極端事件敏感度不盡相同，進口國能源安全與市場風險波動透過需求面交互影響而升級，形成雙向風險傳遞機制，最終演變成全球性的需求危機。因此本論文指出當前能源市場面臨監理困境，傳統框架難以應對市場風險外溢效應，提出建立全球性監理協調機制、優化市場結構以降低特定性風險；建立針對主要進口國的個別監理機制；以及鼓勵進口國多元化能源渠道與發展本土能源生產能力等監理與政策建議。
This thesis investigates the structural vulnerabilities and regulatory challenges of the interna-tional energy market in the wake of a series of global crises, particularly the Covid-19 pandem-ic in 2019 and the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. The analysis reveals that the scale and depth of the resulting energy shocks have surpassed those of previous oil crises, highlighting the limita-tions of existing global energy security mechanisms in managing risks associated with extreme events. Departing from conventional supply-side and state-centric approaches to energy securi-ty, this thesis adopts a market-oriented perspective to examine the growing financialization and integration of international energy markets. Through the application of market concentration index and modern portfolio theory, this thesis develops a quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate systematic and specific risks, as well as fluctuations in market concentration, across international energy markets and major energy-importing countries during periods of crisis. The empirical findings suggest that higher degrees of market integration and maturity are positively correlated with greater market resilience. Furthermore, the thesis identifies differentiated sensi-tivities among importing countries to various types of extreme events and demonstrates how demand-side interactions contribute to a bidirectional risk transmission mechanism, ultimately escalating into a global demand-side crisis. The thesis concludes that existing regulatory frameworks are insufficient to address the spillover effects of market risks. Accordingly, this thesis proposes establishing globally coordinated regulatory mechanisms, implementing struc-tural reforms to mitigate specific risks, developing supervisory regimes for major importing countries, and promoting energy diversification strategies to enhance domestic energy produc-tion capacities. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班
112922003 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112922003 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班] 學位論文
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