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| Title: | 捕蠅紙效果與其不對稱性反應-以臺灣地方政府為例
The Flypaper Effect and Asymmetric Responses-Evidence from Local Governments in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 吳妍臻
Wu, Yen-Chen |
| Contributors: | 陳國樑
伍大開
吳妍臻
Wu, Yen-Chen |
| Keywords: | 捕蠅紙效果
中央補助款
GMM
財政依賴度
不對稱反應
Flypaper Effect
Central Government Grants
GMM
Fiscal Dependence
Asymmetric Response |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 14:24:01 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 臺灣財政體制長期呈現中央集權特色，地方政府財政收入高度依賴中央補助，自籌財源能力相對薄弱。此種財政依賴結構可能導致地方財政紀律弱化，並造成資源配置扭曲，影響整體財政治理品質。
本研究探討臺灣地方政府在民國90年至112年間對中央政府補助款的支出反應，旨在檢驗捕蠅紙效果 (Flypaper effect) 是否存在，以及此效果是否受到財政依賴度調節，最後其效果是否出現不對稱性反應。本文採用Panel固定效果模型 (Fixed Effects Model)，並且藉由差分一般化動差法 (Difference Generalized Method of Moments, DGMM) 與系統性一般化動差法 (System Generalized Method of Moments, SGMM) ，處理補助變數的內生性與地方財政支出的動態特性。實證設計中，分別納入無條件補助款、自籌財源、財政依賴度交乘項以及不對稱反應的虛擬變數，評估地方政府在不同財政制度結構下的支出反應程度。
實證結果顯示，補助款對地方支出的刺激效果顯著高於等額自籌財源，我國地方財政確實存在捕蠅紙效果。進一步分析發現，地方政府對中央補助的依賴程度，是影響捕蠅紙效果的重要因素，財政依賴度對補助款和自籌財源都產生顯著的負面調節效果，使捕蠅紙效果更加明顯。不對稱性分析則揭示財政替代效果，即地方政府對補助款減少的支出反應明顯低於補助款增加的反應，當補助減少時，支出並未等幅下修，地方政府會以其他財源彌補補助款減少，此種不對稱性反應可能導致長期財政壓力。
Taiwan's fiscal system has long been characterized by central government dominance, with local governments heavily dependent on central subsidies for fiscal revenue and relatively weak capacity for self-financing. This fiscal dependency structure may lead to weakened local fiscal discipline and distorted resource allocation, ultimately affecting the overall quality of fiscal governance.
This paper examines Taiwan's local governments' expenditure responses to central government subsidies from 2001 to 2023, aiming to test whether the flypaper effect exists, whether this effect is moderated by fiscal dependency, and whether the effect exhibits asymmetric responses. The study employs Panel Fixed Effects Models and uses Difference Generalized Method of Moments (DGMM) and System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) to address the endogeneity of subsidy variables and the dynamic characteristics of local fiscal expenditure. The empirical design incorporates unconditional subsidies, self-financing sources, fiscal dependency interaction terms, and dummy variables for asymmetric responses to evaluate local governments' expenditure responses under different fiscal institutional structures.
The empirical results show that subsidies have a significantly greater stimulating effect on local expenditure than equivalent self-financing sources, confirming that Taiwan's local fiscal system indeed exhibits the flypaper effect. Further analysis reveals that local governments' dependency on central subsidies is a crucial factor affecting the flypaper effect, with fiscal dependency producing significant negative moderating effects on both subsidies and self-financing sources, making the flypaper effect more pronounced. Asymmetric analysis reveals a fiscal replacement effect, where local governments' expenditure responses to subsidy reductions are significantly lower than their responses to subsidy increases. When subsidies decrease, expenditures do not proportionally decline, as local governments compensate for reduced subsidies with other financing sources. This asymmetric response may lead to long-term fiscal pressure. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255029 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255029 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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