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| Title: | 災後救援的選舉操作：莫拉克颱風對臺灣地方選舉影響之探究
The Electoral Game of Disaster Relief: Exploring Typhoon Morakot’s Impact on Local Elections in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 溫繁笑
Vixamar Betton, Florah Celia |
| Contributors: | 蘇昱璇
Su, Yu-Hsuan
溫繁笑
Vixamar Betton, Florah Celia |
| Keywords: | 選舉問責
分配性政治
地方選舉
災後重建
Electoral accountability
Disaster relief
Local elections
Matching method |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 14:18:01 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究探討莫拉克颱風後的災後政策，與2009年臺灣地方選舉中，選舉誘因所產生的影響。研究運用縣市層級與鄉鎮層級的追蹤資料，建構迴歸模型，分析中央政府援助金額與災後重建項目數量，與多次選舉中的選舉結果之間的關聯。研究旨在探討中央政府（由中國國民黨領導）是否沿政黨立場分配災後援助，以及選民是否根據災害影響程度與地方政府的救災表現，在選舉中作出反應。
為更準確掌握莫拉克颱風對選舉結果的影響，本文將災情嚴重地區劃為實驗組，並透過配對法（matching method）確保與低災損地區的可比性。
第一部分結果顯示，災後援助分配並無明顯政黨偏誤，資源多與實際需求指標（如收容人數、財損程度）呈正相關，僅選舉年度出現顯著增加。第二部分探討選民對災後政策的選舉反應。初步結果顯示，災害嚴重地區與接受援助地區之投票率與對執政黨支持率較高。然而，經配對法控制結構性差異後，相關效果消失。部分災區甚至出現執政黨支持度下降與連任失敗的情形。
這些結果顯示，在重大天災之後，選舉問責或政黨獎勵的作用有限，儘管初步跡象顯示選民可能進行回溯性投票。本文對分配性政治、民主制度的韌性，以及危機治理如何於競爭性選舉中被政治化等議題，提供了實證貢獻。
This thesis investigates the political dynamics of disaster relief in Taiwan, using Typhoon Morakot (2009) as a natural experiment to examine two key questions: whether the central government’s aid was allocated along partisan lines, and whether voters rewarded or punished the ruling party in the subsequent local elections. Using panel data and regression analysis at both county/city and township/district levels, the study evaluates the relationship between disaster severity, central relief transfers, and electoral outcomes.
The first part finds no strong evidence that disaster aid was distributed based on political alignment. Rather, aid allocations were correlated with objective indicators of need such as number of sheltered people and damage to property. The only politically significant variable was the timing of elections, with increased allocation observed during electoral years.
The second part assesses the electoral consequences of the disaster. Initial results suggest that disaster severity and aid were associated with increased voter turnout and ruling party vote share. However, these effects disappear after applying Propensity Score Matching to control for baseline differences. In some cases, being designated a disaster zone was associated with lower vote share and reduced reelection probability for ruling party officials.
These findings challenge predictions of both distributive politics and retrospective voting. Taiwan’s post-Morakot aid system appeared technocratic rather than politicized, while electoral accountability remained limited. This suggests that strong partisanship, low aid visibility, and blurred institutional responsibility weakened the democratic feedback mechanism. In polarized democracies, disasters do not automatically generate electoral consequences, underscoring the need for institutional transparency and local capacity in disaster governance. |
| Reference: | Documents in Chinese
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台東縣政府（2009年8月）。《莫拉克颱風災後重建大事紀：98年8月》。台東縣政府。
台東縣政府（2009年9月）。《莫拉克颱風災後重建大事紀：98年9月》。台東縣政府。
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行政院莫拉克颱風災後重建推動委員會（2009–2012）。《中央政府莫拉克颱風災後重建特別決算：中華民國98–101年度》。行政院。
行政院莫拉克颱風災後重建推動委員會（2009年9月）。《98年9月大事紀》。行政院。
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行政院莫拉克颱風災後重建推動委員會（2014年1月28日）。《交通修復狀況－公路防救災資訊系統》。行政院。
南投縣政府（2009年11月）。《莫拉克颱風災後重建大事紀（九十八年十一月）》。南投縣政府。
國家災害防救科技中心（2010）。《莫拉克颱風社會衝擊與復原調查（第一期）》。行政院國家科學委員會。
國家災害防救科技中心（2011年6月）。《莫拉克颱風之災情勘查與分析（展延報告）》（報告編號NCDR 99-T27）。國家災害防救科技中心。
雲林縣政府（2009年10月）。《莫拉克颱風災後重建大事紀（九十八年十月）》。雲林縣政府。
經濟部水利署水文技術組（2009年8月10日）。《莫拉克颱風水文分析報告》。經濟部水利署。
嘉義縣政府（2009年10月）。《莫拉克颱風災後重建98年10月份重建大事紀》。嘉義縣政府。
遠見民調中心（2009）。《2009年8月台灣民心指數（TPMI）》。（2009年8月16－18日調查）。台北市：遠見雜誌社。
TVBS民調中心，2009，「莫拉克颱風災後民調」，8月10－11日調查。
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
112266014 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112266014 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES)] 學位論文
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