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https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/157989
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| Title: | 高鐵對人口、產業與不動產價格之中期影響分析—台灣高鐵於區域間、縣市、與站區的實證研究
Intermediate-Term Impacts of High Speed Rail (HSR) on Population and Employment Distribution, and Real Estate Value – Empirical Studies of Taiwan HSR at Interregional, County/City, and Station Scales |
| Authors: | 蔡育新 |
| Contributors: | 地政系 |
| Date: | 2018-06 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-07-14 11:09:21 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 高速鐵路始於 1960年代，1990年代逐漸興起， 2000年代起於歐、亞蓬勃發展，目前約 17個國家採用。高鐵市場擴張，或肇因於都市間、區域間的活度增強、所得增加、與交通所創造的附加價值提高等。於交通運具市場中，高鐵快速、成本高等特質將其定位於航空與傳統鐵路之間；過去文獻顯示，高鐵營運取代部分航空、鐵路、與公路運量。然而，相對於交通行為於高鐵營運短期內即可顯現進而分析的情況，土地使用的改變通常需要較長時間才先顯現出，也或許因此，過去文獻對於高鐵影響土地使用的文獻相當有限，尤其是實證面向，因此對於高鐵所可能引起的影響所知仍有限：如高鐵高機動性所提昇的可及性，所造成區域高可及性地區更為集中或分散（公平性議題）；高鐵引起人口與產業的重分佈情形，分別就區域間、區域內的縣市間、與車站鄰近地區與其他地區如何的變化。為填補以上土地使用的研究缺口，本三年期研究計畫將利用台灣高鐵邁入第七年的時機，其影響產業與人口分布或已逐漸可觀察的中期階段，設定本研究計畫目的為：分析高鐵對於可及性的影響，及於此面向對各地區於公平性的影響；分析高鐵旅運的特性，尤其與空間規劃相關者；分析高鐵對於人口與產業空間分布的土地使用面向影響，產業的空間分布包含總體與部分個體產業；分析高鐵對於不動產價格的影響，含住宅與商用。分析方法包括敘述性統計、迴歸分析、「多層迴歸分析（Multilevel modeling）」、特徵價格模型、與空間分析。資料來源包含高鐵旅次調查、家戶與人口普查、工商普查、與房地產交易資料庫。所需分析軟體包含 ArcGIS、GeoDa、SPSS、與 HLM。研究成果預期對於高鐵車站區位設置、其對區域間的產業、人口對應政策、與區域內土地使用與交通政策提供更多參考依據。
The market of high speed rail (HSR) has grown increasingly in Europe and Asia in the past two decades possibly due to expanded needs for inter-city/region transportation, increasing value of travel, raised income per capita, among others. In the transportation market HSR fits in-between airplane for longer trips and conventional rail or highway for shorter trips to make the supply of transportation modes more complete. As of 2013, some seventeen countries, mostly in the Europe and Asia have employed HSR. Past research showed the market of airplane and railway of transit system, as well as highway shrank in a relatively short period of time. However, fewer lights have been shed on the impacts on land use from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, which usually starts to be evident and observable at intermediate term, rather than short term. Unclear issues include, at the inter-regional level, what attraction factors of regions affect the push or pull between regions after accessibility being improved by the introduction of HSR in terms of population, employment, and real estate value? Within the region level, if activities tend to concentrate at districts with HSR stations? At the district level, if activities in general will not necessarily cluster around HSR station areas? Or, if the location of HSR station, such as at city center, suburban or rural area affects land use differently? To fill in these gaps, this three-year proposal is intended to take advantage of passenger-based Taiwan High Speed Rail for a series of empirical studies due to its impact on land use could hardly been observed at the first few years theoretically from the transportation-land use perspective, but may have materialized to certain degree since it is almost seven years into the program since 2007. The research purposes are fourfold: to understand the impact of HSR on accessibility with a focus on efficiency and equality issues; to profile characteristics of HSR trips in general, and to understand the spatial planning related characteristics in specific; to provide knowledge on the impact of HSR on land use related issues, such as employment, population distribution, and; to understand the impact of HSR on real estate values for different uses. The analysis tools include descriptive statistics, regression analysis, multilevel modeling, hedonic modeling and spatial analysis. The data sources needed include an on-board trip survey, population and housing census and industry and commercial census data, and real sales database. The software required includes ArcGIS, GeoDa, SPSS, and HLM. The research findings are expected to contribute to land use and transportation policy implications based on the knowledge on the HSR impacts for different locations of HSR stations, the impacts for areas of different proximity to HSR station within a region, and the resulted growth or dwindling of regions. |
| Relation: | 科技部, MOST103-2410-H004-179-MY3, 103.08-106.07 |
| Data Type: | report |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 國科會研究計畫
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