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| Title: | 認知偏誤對購屋決策之影響：以台灣潛在購屋者為例
The Influence of Cognitive Biases on Housebuying Decisions: Evidence from Potential Housebuyers in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 鍾沛妤
Chung, Pei-Yu |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
鍾沛妤
Chung, Pei-Yu |
| Keywords: | 認知偏誤
購屋決策
邏輯斯迴歸模型
Cognitive Biases
Housebuying Decisions
Logistic Regression Model |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-07-01 14:50:17 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 台灣住宅市場因資訊不對稱、商品異質性高與交易金額龐大，使購屋成為一項複雜的重大決策，面對大量房市資訊與市場不確定性，購屋者往往仰賴心理捷徑進行快速判斷，進而產生系統性的認知偏誤。為深入理解此現象對實際行為之影響，本研究探討個體在購屋決策歷程中展現的認知偏誤傾向，是否受到背景特徵與購屋規劃因素影響，並分析其對購屋時點、用途與屋型偏好的預測效果。
本研究結合購屋決策歷程中之五個典型階段，包括動機形成、資訊搜尋、評估比較、實際購買與購後行為，並經文獻回顧歸納出各階段中常見認知偏誤與可能情境，據此設計結構化問卷進行測量，其中八項偏誤涵蓋框架效應、錨定偏誤、從眾效應、權威偏誤、現狀偏誤、過度自信、啟動效應與負面偏誤，問卷共回收具購屋意願者 1,091 份有效樣本，再透過統計分析檢視不同群體在偏誤傾向上的差異，並探討偏誤與實際購屋規劃間的關聯。
研究結果顯示不同背景變項顯著影響部分認知偏誤表現，如男性在過度自信上得分顯著較高，顯示男性更傾向高估自身房市判斷能力；而具購屋經驗者在從眾、現狀、權威、框架與過度自信上亦有較高偏誤傾向，反映其決策依賴過往經驗與資訊呈現方式，易受他人與專業意見影響，但對自身判斷具信心因而較少調整原有規劃。此外特定認知偏誤亦能有效預測購屋時點、用途與屋型偏好，例如過度自信與錨定偏誤高者更傾向於五年內購屋，顯示此類購屋者易高估市場預測能力並過度依賴初始資訊；而在屋型偏好，權威偏誤與過度自信高者則偏好預售屋，可能源於樂觀的市場預期與對專業建議的高度信任。此結果呈現認知偏誤於購屋決策的影響，未來若能將其納入房市資訊揭露、購屋宣導或政策設計，將有助提升決策品質與促進理性參與，亦可作為制度設計與實務應用之參考。
The housing market in Taiwan is characterized by information asymmetry, high product heterogeneity, and large transaction amounts, making housebuying a complex and significant decision. Faced with extensive market information and uncertainty, housebuyers frequently resort to cognitive shortcuts for quick decision-making, resulting in systematic cognitive biases. To clarify how these biases influence actual behavior, this study investigates whether housebuyers' cognitive biases during the decision-making process are influenced by personal characteristics and housebuying plans. Additionally, the study examines the predictive effects of these biases on the timing, intended use, and housing type preferences of house purchases.
This study integrates the five typical stages of the housing purchase decision-making process: motivation formation, information search, evaluation and comparison, purchase decision, and post-purchase behavior. Through a literature review, common cognitive biases and relevant scenarios at each stage were identified. A structured questionnaire was developed accordingly, measuring eight cognitive biases: framing effect, anchoring bias, bandwagon effect, authority bias, status quo bias, overconfidence, priming effect, and negativity bias. A total of 1,091 valid responses were collected from prospective housebuyers. Statistical analyses were conducted to examine differences in bias tendencies among various groups and to explore the relationships between these biases and actual housebuying plans.
The findings indicate that various demographic variables significantly affect certain cognitive biases. For example, males scored significantly higher in overconfidence, suggesting a stronger tendency to overestimate their judgment in the housing market. Individuals with prior housebuying experience also exhibited higher levels of bandwagon effect, status quo bias, authority bias, framing effect, and overconfidence, reflecting a reliance on past experiences and information presentation, as well as a higher susceptibility to social and expert influences. However, their strong confidence in personal judgments reduces the likelihood of altering original plans. Furthermore, specific cognitive biases effectively predict key housebuying behaviors. Individuals with higher levels of overconfidence and anchoring bias were more likely to purchase a house within five years, reflecting their tendency to overestimate future market conditions and heavily rely on initial information. Regarding housing-type preferences, individuals with stronger authority bias and overconfidence preferred pre-sale properties, likely driven by optimistic market expectations and trust in professional recommendations. These findings highlight the impact of cognitive biases on housing decisions, suggesting that incorporating these insights into housing information disclosure, educational campaigns, or policy design can enhance decision-making quality and promote more rational market participation. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
112357016 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112357016 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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