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| 題名: | 臺灣長期照顧基金收入與支出之中長期財務預測：2025年至2050年
Medium to Long-Term Financial Forecasting of Taiwan's Long-Term Care Fund Revenue and Expenditure: 2025-2050 |
| 作者: | 陳宜嬰
Chen, Yi-Yin |
| 貢獻者: | 傅健豪
韓幸紋
陳宜嬰
Chen, Yi-Yin |
| 關鍵詞: | 長期照顧基金
長照基金收入
長照基金支出
長照需求
Long-Term Care Fund
LTC Fund Revenue
LTC Fund Expenditure
Long-Term Care Demand |
| 日期: | 2025 |
| 上傳時間: | 2025-07-01 14:20:32 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 隨著台灣邁入超高齡社會，長期照顧需求人數將增加，進而導致長期照顧支出上升，在支出不斷攀升下，長照基金是否會出現財務危機，亟待進行財務預測。本研究以2025年至2050年為預測期間，分析長照基金收入與支出之發展趨勢，並探討未來財務缺口的規模與發生時點，以供政策調整與財政規劃之參考。
在收入面推估上，本研究採用向量自我迴歸模型與向量誤差修正模型，對菸稅、遺產稅、贈與稅與房地合一稅進行預測。根據本研究推估結果顯示，至推估後期房地合一稅占長照基金比例約八成，顯示長照基金極度依賴房地合一稅之挹注，但房地合一稅容易受到市場、政策的影響，為降低財務風險，建議政府積極拓展其他稅源或調整基金運作機制。
在支出面推估部分，本研究分為高推估與低推估兩種情境，在高推估情境下，假設長照支出隨著本研究長照需求高推估人數成長率與獨居、老老家庭占比成長率成長；在低推估情境下則假設，長照支出隨著本研究長照需求低推估人數成長率與獨居、老老家庭占比成長率成長。根據本研究推估結果，在高推估情境下，長照支出從2025年817億元成長至2050年2,111億元；低推估情境則從2025年816億元上升至2050年2,097億元。
最後，綜合收入與支出推估結果，本研究針對四種財務情境（財務樂觀、財務悲觀、高收入高支出、低收入低支出）進行分析。推估結果顯示，在四種情境中，僅財務樂觀情境、高收入高支出情境能於推估期末維持累積賸餘；其餘兩種情境皆於2045年轉為累積短絀。顯示長照基金未來財務能否穩健運作，關鍵在於收入面是否充足，而本研究長照收入高、低推估情境主要差別在於房地合一稅撥補比例設定不同，建議政府未來若有意提高房地合一稅挹注至住宅基金的比例時，應參考本研究推估結果規劃其他可補足缺口的穩定財源。
As Taiwan enters a super-aged society, the number of people requiring long-term care is expected to increase, subsequently leading to a rise in long-term care expenditures. With spending continuously climbing, there is an urgent need to forecast whether the Long-Term Care (LTC) Fund may face a financial crisis. This study forecasts the revenue and expenditure trends of Taiwan’s LTC Fund from 2025 to 2050 and examines the scale and timing of potential financial shortfalls to inform future policy adjustments and fiscal planning.
On the revenue side, this study employs Vector Autoregression and Vector Error Correction Models to forecast four major tax sources: tobacco tax, estate tax, gift tax, and the integrated housing and land tax. According to the projections, by the later years of the forecast period, the integrated housing and land tax will account for approximately 80% of the LTC Fund’s revenue, indicating a heavy reliance on this tax source. However, as this tax is susceptible to market fluctuations and policy changes, the study recommends that the government diversify revenue sources or adjust fund mechanisms to mitigate financial risks.
For expenditure projections, the study adopts two scenarios—high and low. In the high-expenditure scenario, LTC spending grows in line with the high-growth estimate of care demand and the increasing proportion of elderly living alone or in elderly-only households. In the low-expenditure scenario, spending follows the low-growth estimate of care demand and demographic changes in living arrangements. Under the high scenario, LTC expenditures rise from NT$81.7 billion in 2025 to NT$211.1 billion in 2050; under the low scenario, they grow from NT$81.6 billion in 2025 to NT$209.7 billion in 2050.
Finally, based on the revenue and expenditure forecasts, this study analyzes four financial scenarios: fiscally optimistic, fiscally pessimistic, high income–high expenditure, and low income–low expenditure. The results show that only the fiscally optimistic and high income–high expenditure scenarios maintain a cumulative surplus by the end of the forecast period, while the other two scenarios shift into cumulative deficits around 2045. These findings highlight that the financial sustainability of the LTC Fund critically depends on the adequacy of revenue. Since the main difference between the high- and low-income scenarios lies in the allocation ratio of the integrated housing and land tax, this study suggests that if the government intends to increase the proportion of this tax allocated to the Housing Fund, it should also plan for other stable revenue sources to cover potential funding gaps based on the projected results. |
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| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255016 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255016 |
| 資料類型: | thesis |
| 顯示於類別: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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