政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/157594

政大典藏 > Journals of NCCU > Issues & Studies: A Social Science Quarterly on China, Taiwan, and East Asian Affairs > Issues & Studies > Item 140.119/157594

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/157594

Title:	A Self-Fulfilling Vicious Circle? China’s Economic Prospects and Aggressive Geopolitical Posture after the COVID-19 Pandemic
Authors:	Ou-Yang, Ray 歐陽睿
Contributors:	Issues & Studies
Keywords:	COVID-19;Chinese economy;political survival;Indo-Pacific geopolitics;US–China rivalry
Date:	2025-03
Issue Date:	2025-06-27 11:21:43 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	This study examines a possible self-fulfilling vicious circle between China’s economic uncertainties and its geopolitical aggressiveness in the post-COVID-19 era. We argue that China’s zero-COVID policy during the pandemic exacerbated structural problems in its economy that had gradually surfaced amid the US-China trade war and has resulted in a postpandemic economic rebound that has been weaker than expected if not short-lived. The window of opportunity for realizing the Chinese Dream may therefore be closing for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party, while they may choose to rely even more on chauvinism to consolidate their legitimacy. This dilemma will push China to adopt a more aggressive posture toward geopolitical issues, raising the likelihood of armed conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Yet, such a posture will inhibit China’s domestic consumption and investment, diminish its external trade integration, and blunt its economic statecraft, all of which will combine to increase the downward economic pressure facing Beijing. After demonstrating this vicious circle with empirical data, we offer new insights into China’s economic prospects and Indo-Pacific geopolitical changes after the pandemic. We also provide a political economic approach to discussing the future course of US–China rivalry and questions such as whether the two powers will fall into a Thucydides Trap.
Relation:	Issues & Studies, Vol.61, No.1, 2550002 (32 pages)
Data Type:	article
DOI link:	https://doi.org/10.1142/S101325112550002X
DOI:	10.1142/S101325112550002X
Appears in Collections:	[Issues & Studies: A Social Science Quarterly on China, Taiwan, and East Asian Affairs] Issues & Studies

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