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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/157400


    Title: 第三波民主化下的拉丁美洲政黨體系之發展：選舉變動度的分析
    The Development of Latin American Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization: an Analysis of Electoral Volatility
    Authors: 蘇彥斌
    Contributors: 政治系
    Keywords: 拉丁美洲;政黨體系;選舉變動度;政黨體系制度化;國會選舉;總統選舉
    Latin America;Party Systems;Electoral Volatility;Party System Institutionalization;Legislative Elections;Presidential Elections
    Date: 2017-08
    Issue Date: 2025-06-19
    Abstract: 本研究計畫從制度論的角度出發，兼採量化與質化分析方法，探討拉丁美洲政黨體系自第三波民主化以來的選舉變動度（electoral volatility）。選舉變動度係測量政黨體系制度化（institutionalization）的重要指標，為研究政黨體系發展的重要面向。本計畫主張選舉制度與政黨意識型態極化程度的交互作用，對於一國政黨體系的持續與變遷具有一定的影響力。本計畫所提出的理論假設為：在總統選舉採取二輪決選制的國家，當其政黨體系的意識型態極化程度愈高，則該國之政黨體系將有較低的選舉變動度。為了驗證這個假設，計畫主持人將蒐集18個拉丁美洲國家（1978-2014）的總統選舉、國會選舉、以及總體資料，進行跨國時間序列的量化分析。其次，計畫主持人將前往瓜地馬拉、薩爾瓦多、哥倫比亞與阿根廷進行移地研究，蒐集歷史文件資料、進行深度訪談並進行質化分析，進而與理論假設的預期進行比對檢證，深入探討二輪決選制與政黨體系的極化如何影響一國政黨體系的選舉變動度。整體而言，本計畫將建構新的制度理論以理解拉丁美洲政黨體系的發展，並期望能對台灣政黨體系的發展提供啟發與反思。
    This project examines electoral volatility of Latin American party systems in the Third Wave of democratization. As an important aspect of party system institutionalization, electoral volatility indicates the degree to which a party has stable patterns of support across elections. This project builds a theory that focuses on the interaction effects of electoral institutions and ideological polarization. It hypothesizes that a country with a runoff system tends to have a lower level of electoral volatility when it has a highly polarized party system. To test the generalizability of the proposed theory, the PI will conduct time-series cross-sectional analyses on data from legislative elections and presidential elections in 18 Latin American countries from 1978 to 2014. Moreover, to elucidate the causal mechanisms of the theory, the PI will conduct field work in Guatemala, El Salvador, Colombia, and Argentina to collect historical, archival, and elite-interview data for a qualitative comparative study. Overall, this project is anticipated to engage in building new institutional theories to facilitate a better understanding of issues about party system development in Latin America and provide implications for Taiwan’s party system development.
    Relation: 科技部, MOST104-2410-H004-002-MY2, 104.02-106.01
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[政治學系] 國科會研究計畫

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