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| Title: | 以艾利森的概念模型檢視1988-2000年的美台軍售
Examining US-Taiwan Weapon Transfers (1988-2000) by Allison’s Decision-Making Models |
| Authors: | 安凱樂
Apperson, Caleb |
| Contributors: | 陳秉逵
Chen, Ping-Kuei
安凱樂
Caleb Apperson |
| Keywords: | 對外軍售（FMS）
先進武器系統
軍售
嚇阻
格雷厄姆·艾利森
組織過程模式
政府政治模式
Foreign Military Sales (FMS)
Advanced Weapon Systems
Arms Sales
Deterrence
Graham Allison
Organizational Processes Model
Government Politics Model |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-06-02 14:57:03 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本論文運用格雷厄姆 ·艾利森（Graham Allison）的「組織行為模式」與「政府政治模式」，探討1988年至2000年間美國對台軍售增加的現象。本研究透過探討國家安全利益、組織慣例以及跨機構談判如何影響美國在考量台灣防禦需求時的決策過程，藉此評估美國對台軍售背後的戰略動機。本研究結合歷史分析，斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所（SIPRI）的觀察數據與專家訪談，深入探討美台軍售對美中台三邊關係的廣泛意涵。 本研究最後提出以下兩點主張：（1）美國持續對台軍售主要受到美國國防與外交政策體系中標準作業程序與既有制度慣例的影響，而非來自對戰略目標的刻意重新調整；（2）1990年代美台軍售升高的主要原因，來自於美國政府內部的跨機構競爭與官僚權力鬥爭，同時也受到台灣方面遊說行動的影響，這些遊說對國會決策產生一定影響。上述因素交織影響下，導致軍售政策結果更多反映內部分歧與外部壓力，而非一貫的戰略思維，進而影響軍售的種類與時機。本研究對於美國藉由軍售政策嚇阻台海衝突的成效以及台海安全方面有重要啟示。
This thesis examines the increase in US arms sales to Taiwan between the years 1988 and 2000 by employing Graham Allison’s Organizational Processes and Government Politics Models. The goal of this study is to evaluate the strategic motivation behind US-Taiwan arms sales by exploring how national security interests, institutional routines, and interagency bargaining influence US decision-making relative to Taiwan’s defensive needs. To meet this goal, this study will employ historical analysis, Stockholm International Peace Research Institution (SIPRI) observational data, as well as expert interviews to provide a detailed analysis of the broader implications that US-Taiwan arms sales dynamics have for US-Taiwan-China relations. Ultimately, I argue according to two propositions: (1) Continuing US arms sales to Taiwan is influenced by the standard operating procedures and established practices within US defense and foreign policy institutions, rather than by a deliberate recalibration of strategic objectives. And (2) the escalation of US-Taiwan arms sales in the 1990s was driven by interagency competition and bureaucratic power struggles within the US government. These were compounded by Taiwanese lobbying efforts that influenced congressional decision-making. These combined dynamics led to policy outcomes shaped by internal discord and external pressure rather than a coherent strategic framework, affecting both arms sales types and timing. The results of this study aim to offer insight into the efficiency and security implications of the US arms sale policy toward deterring conflict across the Taiwan Strait. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
112253026 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112253026 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [外交學系] 學位論文
|
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