政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/156079

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/156079

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題名:	普欽時期俄羅斯對摩爾多瓦與喬治亞之外交政策 Russian Foreign Policies toward Moldova and Georgia in the Putin Era
作者:	姜忠毅 Chiang, Chung-Yi
貢獻者:	林永芳 Lin, Yung-Fang 姜忠毅 Chiang, Chung-Yi
關鍵詞:	俄羅斯外交政策摩爾多瓦喬治亞勢力範圍外部威脅認知大國地位 Russian Foreign Policy Moldova Georgia Sphere of Influence External Threat Perception Great Power Status
日期:	2025
上傳時間:	2025-03-03 15:20:51 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本論文旨在探討普欽時期俄羅斯對摩爾多瓦與喬治亞之外交政策，在俄羅斯於前蘇聯地區建立「勢力範圍」的背景下，影響俄羅斯外交決策的兩大因素包括：第一，普欽為首的決策團隊傾向以「合作」或「對抗」的態度應對北約擴張等外部威脅，以確保俄羅斯在前蘇聯地區的軍事安全；第二，摩爾多瓦與喬治亞對俄羅斯採取「避險」或「抗衡」的外交策略，進一步對俄國追求大國地位的戰略實踐。外部環境所形成之「威脅」與俄羅斯對大國「地位」的追求，構成影響俄羅斯對摩爾多瓦與喬治亞外交政策的關鍵因素。在研究俄羅斯對摩爾多瓦、喬治亞外交政策的過程中，可以發現當普欽為首決策團隊傾向以「合作」態度應對北約擴張等所造成之外部威脅，且摩爾多瓦、喬治亞對俄羅斯採取趨向「避險」之外交政策時，俄羅斯對摩爾多瓦、喬治亞將採取趨向「利誘」之外交政策；當普欽為首決策團隊傾向以「合作」態度應對北約擴張等所造成之外部威脅，且摩爾多瓦、喬治亞對俄羅斯採取趨向「抗衡」之外交政策時，俄羅斯對摩爾多瓦、喬治亞將採取趨向「脅迫」之外交政策；當普欽為首決策團隊傾向以「對抗」態度應對北約擴張等所造成之外部威脅，且摩爾多瓦、喬治亞對俄羅斯採取趨向「避險」之外交政策時，俄羅斯對摩爾多瓦、喬治亞將採取趨向「容忍」之外交政策；當普欽為首決策團隊傾向以「對抗」態度應對北約擴張等所造成之外部威脅，且摩爾多瓦、喬治亞對俄羅斯採取趨向「抗衡」之外交政策時，俄羅斯對摩爾多瓦、喬治亞將採取「脅迫—滲透顛覆」並行之外交政策。 This thesis aims to explain Russia's foreign policy toward Moldova and Georgia in the Putin era. Based on Russia's will to establish a "sphere of influence" in the post-Soviet region, two key factors influence Russian foreign policy decision-making: First, whether Putin’s team adopt a "cooperative" or "confrontational" approach to external threats, such as NATO expansion, to ensure Russia's military security in the post-Soviet space; Second, whether Moldova and Georgia pursue a "hedging" or "balancing" foreign policy toward Russia, which further shapes Russia’s strategic goal of great power status. The external "threats" and aspirations for great power "status" are critical factors affecting Russia's foreign policy toward Moldova and Georgia. In analyzing Russia’s foreign policy toward Moldova and Georgia, several patterns emerge. When Putin’s team adopt a "cooperative" approach to NATO expansion and other external threats, and Moldova or Georgia pursue a "hedging" foreign policy toward Russia, Russia tends to adopt a "benefit" foreign policy toward them. When Putin’s team remains "cooperative" toward external threats, but Moldova or Georgia adopt a "balancing" policy against Russia, Russia tends to implement a "coercive" foreign policy toward them. When Putin’s team adopts a "confrontational" approach to external threats and Moldova or Georgia pursue a "hedging" policy, Russia tends to respond with a "tolerant" foreign policy. However, when Putin’s team adopts a "confrontational" stance toward external threats and Moldova or Georgia pursue a "balancing" policy against Russia, Russia implements a dual strategy of "coercion and subversion" in its foreign policy toward them.
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