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| Title: | 地緣政治風險對天然氣出口貿易之影響
The impact of geopolitical risks on natural gas export trad |
| Authors: | 李宜軒
Li, I-Hsuan |
| Contributors: | 翁永和
Weng, Yung-Ho
李宜軒
Li, I-Hsuan |
| Keywords: | 地緣政治風險
天然氣
出口貿易
Geopolitical Risks
Natural Gas
Export Trade |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-03-03 13:25:47 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究係以比利時等18個國家作為研究樣本，援引貿易引力模型為基礎（包含天然氣進、出口國之GDP、人均GDP及兩國間的地理距離），加以探討地緣政治風險對各國天然氣貿易出口的影響，並納入人均GIN、政體差異及都市化差異等其它可能的影響因素進行討論，藉蒐整樣本國家2010至2023年間的現況資料及數據，據以以最小平方法（OLS）進行實證分析。研究結果顯示，地緣政治風險的解釋變數與天然氣貿易規模呈顯著負相關，顯示高風險情境抑制貿易量，提高交易成本。此外，出口國及目的國的GDP與貿易流量間呈現顯著正相關，反映經濟增長會促進天然氣的供應與需求；出口國及目的國的人均GDP則為負相關；而兩國間的地理距離為正相關。
This study focuses on analyzing the impact of geopolitical risks on natural gas export trade using a sample of 18 countries, including Belgium, from 2010 to 2023. Grounded in the trade gravity model, the research integrates variables such as the GDP and per capita GDP of exporting and importing countries, geographic distance, per capita GNI, political system differences, and urbanization differences. Employing the Ordinary Least Squares （OLS） method for empirical analysis, the study finds that geopolitical risks are significantly negatively correlated with natural gas trade volumes, suggesting that higher risks suppress trade activities and escalate transaction costs. Additionally, the GDP of both exporting and importing countries shows a positive correlation with trade flows, underscoring the role of economic growth in driving energy trade. Conversely, per capita GDP reveals a negative relationship with trade flows, while geographic distance between countries exhibits a positive correlation, highlighting its complex role in shaping trade dynamics. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
112921315 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112921315 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文
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