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| Title: | 生命歷程手足結構之變遷——生育率轉型與人口老化的意涵
Sibling Structures Across Life Courses: Insights into Fertility Transition and Population Ageing |
| Authors: | 吳紹琦
Wu, Shao-Chi |
| Contributors: | 陳信木
吳紹琦
Shao-Chi Wu |
| Keywords: | 手足
生育率轉型
微視模擬
生命歷程
Sibling
Fertility Transition
Micro-simulation
Life Course |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-02-04 15:51:20 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 手足是當代生育率轉型之下的重要主題，雖經過半個多世紀以來的生育率與死亡率下降，但手足在今天依然是社會中的普遍經驗，且與手足的感情有機會隨著手足規模縮小而變得親密，和手足的共存時間更是會持續因為預期壽命上升而延長。本研究即是在此一架構下，運用微視模擬（micro-simulation）的方法探究時期間與生命歷程間的手足結構差異，包括手足的數量、性別、年齡等特徵會如何在不同年度的生育和死亡水準下變動，放在個人的一生中又會有如何不同的發展軌跡。研究結果呈現出隨著時期發展，手足數量隨著生育率轉型急速下降；手足年齡間隔在1980年代以前縮小，以後略為擴大；與手足的共存時間則延長，但存在性別差異。對生命歷程的分析則顯示出一生中經歷手足增加和死亡的機會都下降，特別是成長時期經歷手足夭折的風險幾乎消失；而生命後期擁有兄弟姐妹四類手足的比例比過往更加均衡。將手足放在家庭的脈絡下，本研究另外分析了手足對母親照顧支持圖像的長期差異，整體上因為手足規模縮小，現在的子女平均需要比過去負擔更多的照顧責任，但較不會面對手足先於母親離世的狀況，子女可以共同照顧母親直至母親臨終。這些結果揭示了未來需要對手足間的相互支持有更多關注；與此同時，增加中的無子女及無手足者將會是越來越重要的家庭議題，親屬網絡則可以是切入他們家庭生活的重要視角；最後，在高齡照顧上則要面對正在發生的老老照顧現象。
Sibship has become increasingly significant in the context of fertility and mortality decline because greater intimacy among siblings is more likely with smaller sibling groups and longer periods of coexistence due to the extended life expectancy. Additionally, having siblings remains common in contemporary Taiwanese society after fertility started decreasing approximately seventy years ago. Building on these understandings, this study employs micro-simulation to analyze how sibship sizes as well as the configurations of sex and age evolve over time and across the life course.
The results indicate that sibship size has declined alongside decreasing fertility rates. The age gap among siblings narrowed until the 1980s but has slightly widened since then. The duration of coexistence with siblings has increased over time, albeit with variations by sex. Regarding life course changes, the likelihood of gaining or losing a sibling has decreased. Younger individuals are now less likely to lose a sibling, while older individuals experience a more balanced sibling configuration of sex and age. Considering sibling structures as part of the broader family context, this study also explores the transformation of upward support from children to mothers. With shrinking sibship sizes, the burden of supporting the older generation has increased for each child over time. However, this pressure does not escalate throughout the life course due to the reduced risk of losing a sibling before their mother’s death.
These results highlight three key issues. First, further research is needed to investigate whether and how siblings support one another. Second, family life must be reexamined in the context of an increasing number of individuals without children or siblings. Lastly, the emerging phenomenon of elderly children caring for elderly parents, which may compromise their well-being, demands greater attention. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
社會學系
112254001 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112254001 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [社會學系] 學位論文
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