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| Title: | 科威特王國對美國、沙烏地阿拉伯與伊朗的小國避險外交
State of Kuwait’s Hedging Diplomacy toward the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Iran |
| Authors: | 劉敬言
Liu, Ching-Yen |
| Contributors: | 張景安
Chang, Ching-An
劉敬言
Liu, Ching-Yen |
| Keywords: | 科威特
小國外交
避險
調解
美國
沙烏地阿拉伯
伊朗
Kuwait
Small State
Hedging
Mediation
the US
Saudi Arabia
Iran |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-02-04 15:28:03 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 科威特王國是位於波斯灣沿岸的阿拉伯小國，憑藉著得天獨厚的地緣優勢與石油資源，薩巴赫家族在此治理了 200 餘年享盡繁榮光景，但也遭遇了諸多外部挑戰與威脅。作為一個小國應該如何捍衛主權是統治者的永恆命題，唯有如履薄冰的外交抉擇才能帶領國家走向安穩的未來。自1991年科威特戰後復國，伊拉克與伊朗即被科方視為主要威脅來源，為了防範兩伊潛在的風險，薩巴赫統治集團表面上以結盟美沙大國的方略作為威脅平衡手段，本質上則是以「避險」的損益思維展開外交佈局。而所謂避險即是小國以不完全合作或對抗的姿態與一個或多個立場相左的大國交往以達到規避風險的目的，這體現在科威特對美國、沙烏地阿拉伯、伊朗的交涉方法中尤甚，形成了單一與整體避險的樣態。
鑒於美國、沙國與伊朗在薩巴赫家族的外交避險思維中佔據的重要地位，本論文以郭清水的避險模型作為基礎，分析自1991年戰後至 2021年間科威特對美國、沙國與伊朗採取的的合作或抵抗的混和策略，以此理解避險如何能為小國保住平安並擴張國家利益。本研究的論點為，科威特對美國採取的扈從策略是它能夠施展外交避險的基礎前提，且扈從不盡然是下策；對沙國盟友則採取單一避險的姿態保持距離，小國調解雖未含於原模型中，但亦可視為一種避險手段；伊朗是威脅來源，科國政權以「進一步再退兩步」的外交步伐構成對伊的單一避險模式。而科國在該三國之間的應對進退也形成整體避險的狀態。回顧這30年來的科國外交歷程，可見它以避險的姿態規避掉大部分會引起大國敵對的意識形態衝突，呼應了薩巴赫統治集團以和為貴的外交中心思想。本研究的結論是避險策略有其靈活性，但是有侷限性，而調解也是一種避險手段。
The State of Kuwait, as one of the Arab small states, is located at the tip of the Persian Gulf. Āl Ṣabāḥ family has ruled this land for over 200 years, while also facing external threats. Iran and Iraq have been considered the main threat sources by Kuwait since it was liberated in 1991. In order to balance the threats of Iran and Iraq, The alliance with the United States and Saudi Arabia appears to be the primary means for the ruling family of Āl Ṣabāḥ. However, it’s merely the surface. The core of Kuwait’s foreign policy is the “hedging strategy.” The so-called diplomatic hedging refers to a small state resorting to mixed strategies of limited cooperation and balancing to deal with its issues with single or several great powers. The diplomatic hedging can be classified into single hedging and overall hedging. For Kuwait, its interactions with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Iran best reflect its hedging diplomacy.
Given the importance of the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran in the framework of Āl Ṣabāḥ family’s hedging diplomacy, this study analyzes Kuwait’s relations with these three great powers from 1991 to 2021 based on Kuik Cheng-Chwee’s spectrum. According to the arguments presented in this study, the bandwagoning strategy toward the US is the cornerstone for Kuwait to implement its hedging diplomacy, and bandwagoning is not always the least favored option for small states. The single hedging strategy is applied in Kuwait's relationship with its close ally, Saudi Arabia, in order to maintain a degree of distance. The mediation is not elaborated in the original spectrum of Kuik Cheng-Chwee, but can still be recognized as one of the hedging strategies. As for Kuwait’s threat source, Iran, the ruling family adopts the “one step forward, two steps back” approach as its single hedging strategy. Kuwait’s behavior among these three great powers can be deemed overall hedging. This study concludes that the hedging strategy is flexible, but it also has limitations. |
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Nazer, F. (2015, Oct. 27). Saudi-Egyptian Relations at the Crossroads. The Arab Gulf States Institution in Washington.
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New Straits Times (2014, Oct. 19). Kuwait oil union slams Saudi halt to joint output. https://www.nst.com.my/news/2015/09/kuwait-oil-union-slams-saudi-halt-joint-output
Nikou, S. (2021, Aug. 17). Timeline of Iran's Nuclear Activities. United States Institution of Peace. https://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/timeline-irans-nuclear-activities
Norman, J. (2023, Oct. 18). Analysis: Hamas and Hezbollah: how they are different and why they might cooperate against Israel. UCL News.
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O’Toole, M. (2015 Aug. 6). Palestine-Kuwait relations: ‘Ice has started to melt’. al-Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/8/6/palestine-kuwait-relations-ice-has-started-to-melt
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Robbins, M. (2019, Jan. 3). Does Iran pose greater threat to the region than Israel? Here is what Arab citizens think. Arab Barometer. https://www.arabbarometer.org/2020/01/israel-or-iran-which-is-the-greater-perceived-threat-copy/
Robinson, K. (2023, Oct. 27). What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal?. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal
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Rouhani, S. (2023, Nov. 20). Arash oil field challenge between Iran and Kuwait. Institute for Political and International Studies. https://www.ipis.ir/en/subjectview/736007/arash-oil-field-challenge-between-iran-and-kuwait
Saab, B. (2011, Aug. 31). How Saudi Arabia can contain Iran – and other benefits from Syria's turmoil. Christian Science Monitor. https://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0831/How-Saudi-Arabia-can-contain-Iran-and-other-benefits-from-Syria-s-turmoil
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Saudi Gazette (2018, Jul. 18). Saudi Arabia, Kuwait sign minutes to establish coordination council. https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/539335/SAUDI-ARABIA/Saudi-Arabia-Kuwait-sign-minutes-to-establish-coordination-council
Smith, P. (2011, Nov. 22). Jordan And Morocco To Join The GCC?. Gulf Businese. https://gulfbusiness.com/jordan-and-morocco-to-join-the-gcc/
Stepanian, R. (2011, Aug. 8). Oppositionist Lauds Yerevan’s Stance On Russian-Georgian War. RFE/ RL: Armenia Edition. https://www.azatutyun.am/a/24290661.html
Suliman, A., Smith, S., & Gubash, C. (2021, Jan. 6). Saudi Arabia lifts blockade of Qatar in breakthrough agreement easing Gulf crisis. NBC News.
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Takagi, S. (2012, Oct.). Establishing Monetary Union in the Gulf Cooperation Council: What Lessons for Regional Cooperation?. Asian Development Bank Institute. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/156245/adbi-wp390.pdf
Teague, M., Ackerman, S., & Safi, M. (2016, June 12). Orlando nightclub shooter Omar Mateen was known to FBI, agent says. The Guardian.
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The Arab Weekly (2017, Aug. 20). Kuwait arrests 13 fugitives in Iran-linked terror case. https://thearabweekly.com/kuwait-arrests-13-fugitives-iran-linked-terror-case
The Jerusalem Post (2008, Mar. 9). Kuwaiti strategist: Israel should strike Iran.
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Theodorou, C. (2011, Jan. 29). Egypt protests draw mixed reaction in region. CNN. http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/01/29/egypt.middle.east.reaction/index.html
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The Economic Times (n.d.). What is 'Hedge'.
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The Economist (2022, Nov. 24). Can Bahrain’s division between Sunnis and Shias be healed?. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/11/24/can-bahrains-division-between-sunnis-and-shias-be-healed
The Guardian (1990, Aug. 3). Superpowers unite over Iraqi invasion of Kuwait - archive, 1990. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/03/superpowers-unite-over-iraq-invasion-of-kuwait-1990
The Guardian (2011, Oct. 21). Barack Obama announces total withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/oct/21/obama-us-troops-withdrawal-iraq
The Guardian (2013, Jun. 24). Qatar's emir Sheikh Hamad to hand power to son, crown prince Tamim. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/24/qatar-emir-steps-down-son-tamim
The Guardian (2015, June 26). Islamic State claims responsibility for deadly blast at Kuwait City mosque. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/26/islamic-state-claim-responsibility-deadly-blast-kuwait-city-mosque
The New York Times (1985, May 26). Car Bomber Fails in Attempt to Kill Leader of Kuwait. https://www.nytimes.com/1985/05/26/world/car-bomber-fails-in-attempt-to-kill-leader-of-kuwait.html
The Palestinian Information Center (2019, June 29). Kuwait: Absence from Bahrain workshop was part of a principled stance. https://english.palinfo.com/o_post/Kuwait-Absence-from-Bahrain-workshop-was-part-of-a-principled-stance/
The Sydney Morning Herald (2009, Mar. 31). Libya's Gaddafi hurls insults at Saudi king. https://www.smh.com.au/world/libyas-gaddafi-hurls-insults-at-saudi-king-20141031-9h9r.html
The Times of Israel (2016, Jan. 6). Qatar recalls ambassador to Iran amid Saudi execution row. https://www.timesofisrael.com/qatar-recalls-ambassador-to-iran-amid-saudi-execution-row/
Trager, E. (2017, Jul. 2). The Muslim Brotherhood Is the Root of the Qatar Crisis. The Washington Institution for Near East Policy. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/muslim-brotherhood-root-qatar-crisis
Tran, M. (2011, Oct. 17). 'You're between sky and Earth': the plight of biduns in Kuwait. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2011/oct/17/biduns-kuwait-statelessness
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Ugal, N. (2024, May 2). Long-standing offshore gas field dispute reignited in Middle East. upstream. https://www.upstreamonline.com/politics/long-standing-offshore-gas-field-dispute-reignited-in-middle-east/2-1-1636710
Ulrichsen, K. (2014, Sep.). Qatar and the Arab Spring: Policy Drivers and Regional Implications. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2014/09/qatar-and-the-arab-spring-policy-drivers-and-regional-implications?lang=en
Valeri, M. (2014, Mar.). Oman’s mediatory efforts in regional crises. Norway Peacebuilding Resource Centre. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/178923/c3f2474284d7aaeadeb5a8429ef64375.pdf
VOA (2011, Apr. 9). Iran Expels Kuwaiti Diplomats in Spying Dispute. https://www.voanews.com/a/iran-expels-kuwaiti-diplomats-in-spying-dispute-119561489/137777.html
Watkins, E. (2003, Nov. 5). Kuwait plans talks with Iran for development of Dorra gas field. Oil & Gas Journal.
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/article/17255912/kuwait-plans-talks-with-iran-for-development-of-dorra-gas-field
Wenger, M. (1990). Primer: Lebanon’s 15-Year War, 1975-1990. MERIP. https://merip.org/1990/01/primer-lebanons-15-year-war-1975-1990/
Wintour, P. (2017a, Jun. 23). Qatar given 10 days to meet 13 sweeping demands by Saudi Arabia. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/close-al-jazeera-saudi-arabia-issues-qatar-with-13-demands-to-end-blockade
Wintour, P. (2017b, Jul. 3). Qatar responds to Gulf neighbours' demands. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/03/qatar-given-more-time-to-respond-to-gulf-neighbours-demands
（三）阿拉伯文網路資料
al-Bayān (2000, Jul. 3). al-Suʿūdiyya wa-l-Kuwayt tuwaqqiʿān ittifāqiyya tarsīm al-ḥudūd al-baḥriyya, al-Fayṣal: yawm saʿīd wa naʾamal fī ḥall nizāʿi al-Durra maʿa Īrān [Saudi Arabia and Kuwait sign the maritime border demarcation agreement. al-Faisal: Happy day and we hope to resolve the Durra dispute with Iran].
https://www.albayan.ae/last-page/2000-07-03-1.1068933
al-Khuwaylidī, M. (2023, Dec. 16). al-ʿalāqāt al-suʿūdiyya - al-kuwaytiyya rāsikha kamā arsāhā al-ābāʾ al-muʾassisūn [Saudi-Kuwaiti relations are well established, as established by the founding fathers]. al-Sharq al-Awsaṭ.
https://reurl.cc/MOaALX
al-Salāma, Ḥ., & al-Zāhī, M. (2020, Aug. 15). Maṣādir ḥukūmiyya akkadat li- «al-Qabas» thabāt mawqifihā: al-Kuwayt ākhir man yuṭbbiʿu maʿ Isrāʾīl [Government sources confirmed to Al-Qabas the firmness of its position: Kuwait is the last to agree with Israel]. al-Qabas. https://reurl.cc/YVVMp0
al-Shammarī, Ā. (2024, Jan. 1). al-ʿAlāqāt al-kuwaytiyya - al-suʿūdiyya.. rawābiṭ wathīqa tazdād tajadhdhuran wa-qūwa bi-riʿāyat qiyādatay al-baladayn wa-ruʾyatihimā al-wāʿida [Kuwaiti-Saudi relations...close ties that are becoming more rooted and stronger under auspices of leadership of these two countries and their promising vision.]. Kūnā. https://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=3134701&language=ar
al-ʿArabī al-Jadīd (2018, Feb. 1). Al-Kuwayt wa-l-Suʿudiyya: tārīkh min al-ʿalāqāt al-ḥadhra [Kuwait and Saudi Arabia: a history of cautious relations].
https://reurl.cc/mMWyG7
al-ʿAlam (2018, Jan. 22). Āl al-Shaykh yuwajjihu shatāʾim liwazīr kuwaytī wa yastaʿīn bi-l-muṭarribīn [Al-Sheikh insults a Kuwaiti minister and seeks the help of singers!]. https://reurl.cc/9vdvAd
al-Marzūqī, I. (2015, Jan. 29). Al-Balad al-ʿArabī al-Waḥīd alladhī lam yusajjil azma dīblūmāsiyya khilāl al-sanawāt al-māḍiyya: al-siyāsa al-khārijiyya al-Kuwaytiyya... «ṣifr» aʿadāʾ. al-Rāy. [The only Arab country that has not recorded a diplomatic crisis over the past years: Kuwaiti foreign policy... “zero” enemies. Opinion].
https://www.alraimedia.com/ampArticle/549588
al-Muḥaysin, N. (2019, Dec. 27). Ittifāqiyya «al-Maqsūma» rassamat al-ḥudūd al-nihāʾiyya bayna al-Kuwayt wa-l-Suʿūdiyya... wa ḥasamat al-milaff [The “divided” agreement demarcated the final borders between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia... and settled the file]. https://reurl.cc/A2qr5d
Bashar, Y. (2018, Oct. 19). Al-Yaman.. al-Balad al-ʿArabī al-Maʿazūl! [Yemen...the isolated Arab country!]. al-Jazīra. https://reurl.cc/5DvEOG
Ḥāṭūm, N. (2023, Sep. 9). Mā al-sīnāriyūhāt al-mutawaqqaʿa maʿa istimrār al-khilāf al-ḥudūdī bayna al-ʿIrāq wa-l-Kuwayt? [What are the expected scenarios as the border dispute between Iraq and Kuwait continues?]. BBC NEWS ʿArabī.
https://www.bbc.com/arabic/articles/c03v08v67pjo.amp
Ḥablā, A. (2018, Jul. 6). Majlis tansīq li-l-Suʿūdiyya wa-l-Imārāt.. Ayna al-Baḥrayn? [A coordination council for Saudi Arabia and the Emirates.. Where is Bahrain?]. https://reurl.cc/z12Lo0
Ḥasan, M. (2018, Nov. 4). al-Taʾthīrāt al-muḥtamala li-majālis al-tansīq al-thunāʾiyya ʿalā majlis al-taʿāwun al-khalījī [Potential impacts of bilateral coordination councils on the Gulf Cooperation Council]. al-Ahram Center for Political & Strategy Studies. https://acpss.ahram.org.eg/News/16755.aspx#
Īlāf (2024, Feb. 24). al-Kuwayt... ʿalāqāt mutaʾaṣṣila maʿa al-suʿūdiyya [Kuwait... deep-rooted relations with Saudi Arabia]. https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/02/1529996.html
Salāma, M. (2024, Mar. 25). Limādhā tastakhdim al-Kuwayt istirātījiyya al-taḥawwuṭ tijāh Irān wa-l-Mamlaka al-ʿArabiyya al-Suʿūdiyya? [Why does Kuwait use a hedging strategy towards Iran and Saudi Arabia?]. Aswāq al-Arab. https://www.asswak-alarab.com/archives/33468
Sālim, A. (2017, Oct. 3). al-Shiʿa fī al-Kuwayt: al-muwāṭana hiya al-ḥall [Shiites in Kuwait: Citizenship is the solution]. Iḍāʾāt. https://www.ida2at.com/shiites-in-kuwait-citizenship-is-key/amp/
Kūnā (2017, Dec. 6). al-Kuwayt tuʾakkid anna iʿtirāf Amrīkā bi-l-Quds ʿĀṣima li-Isrāʾīl wa-Naql Sifāratihā ilayhā mukhālif li-l-Qarārāt al-Dawliyya [Kuwait confirms that America's recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the transfer of its
embassy there is in violation of international resolutions.]. https://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2665890&language=ar
Hamīm, M. (2017, Aug. 3). al-ʿAlāqāt al-Irāniyya-Kuwaytiyya bayna al-istimrāriyya wa-l-taghyīr [Relations of Kuwait and Iran between continuity and change]. al-Maʿahad al-Dawlī li-Dirāsāt al-Irānīya.
https://reurl.cc/yYG1Ka
五、政府與國際組織文件
（一）英文
Allen, W. (1992). Crisis in Southern Iraq: Operation SOUTHERN WATCH. U.S. Department of Denfence. https://media.defense.gov/2012/Aug/23/2001330107/-1/-1/0/Oper%20Southern%20Watch.pdf
Central Statistical Bureau Kuwait (n.d.).
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George W. Bush Presidential Library (n.d.). Global War on Terror. https://www.georgewbushlibrary.gov/research/topic-guides/global-war-terror
Hatcher, D. (2008). The global war on terrorism operation Iraqi freedom: Wildcats never forgets. U.S. Army Reserve History.
https://www.usar.army.mil/Portals/98/Documents/historycorner/802d%20Ord%20Co%20Histor-pdf.pdf
IAEA (2005). Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran / Resolution adopted by the Board on 13 March 2004. https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/Iran%20GOV200421.pdf
United Nations (1991). Resolution 687 (1991) / adopted by the Security Council at its 2981st meeting, on 3 April 1991.
https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/110709?v=pdf
United Nations (1992). Resolution 773 (1992) / adopted by the Security Council at its 3108th meeting, on 26 August 1992.
https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/149027?v=pdf
United Nations (1993a). Resolution 806 (1993) / adopted by the Security Council at its 3171st meeting, on 5 February 1993.
https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/243005?v=pdf
United Nations (1993b). Resolution 833 (1993) / adopted by the Security Council at its 3224th meeting, on 27 May 1993.
https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/166603?v=pdf
United Nations Treaty Collection (1993). Agreement concerning the boundary between Nejd and Kuwait.
https://treaties.un.org/pages/showDetails.aspx?objid=08000002800b3b06
United Nations Treaty Collection (2018). Riyadh Agreement.
https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/No%20Volume/55378/Part/I-55378-0800000280527ea2.pdf
UNODC (2018, Aug.). Introduction to International Terrorism.
https://www.unodc.org/documents/e4j/18-04932_CT_Mod_01_ebook_FINALpdf.pdf
U.S. Department of State (2021). U.S. Security Cooperation with Kuwait.
https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-kuwait-2/
Secretariat General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (n.d.a). Joint Action Process: The Unified Economic Agreement 1981. https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/CooperationAndAchievements/Achievements/EconomicCooperation/JointActionProcess/Pages/TheUnifiedEconomicAgreement198.aspx
Secretariat General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (n.d.b). Media Cooperation: Joint Culture Action. https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/CooperationAndAchievements/Achievements/MediaCooperation/Pages/JointCulturalAction.aspx
The White House (2000). A National Security Strategy for a Global Age.
https://history.defense.gov/Portals/70/Documents/nss/nss2000.pdf?ver=vuu1vGIkFVV1HusDPL21Aw%3D%3D |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
中東與中亞研究碩士學位學程
109560006 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109560006 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [中東與中亞研究碩士學位學程] 學位論文
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