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    题名: 基於衣襬效應的2022年台北市長選舉大數據分析——小雞如何成就母雞？
    Big data analysis of the Taipei Mayor Election in 2022 based on the coattail effect – How do the chicks help the hens achieve goals?
    作者: 許弘諺;陳子瑩;孫蔣君
    贡献者: 傳播博五
    关键词: 衣襬效應;台北市長選舉;Meta 廣告檔案庫;OpView 社群口碑資料庫;社會 網絡分析;語意網絡分析
    Coattail Effect;Taipei Mayor Election;Meta Advertising Archives;OpView;Social Network Analysis;Semantic Network Analysis
    日期: 2023-06
    上传时间: 2025-01-07 09:20:19 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 在台灣的選舉中以衣襬效應或稱母雞帶小雞為主軸的選舉策略是一種常態，但本研究更好奇的是三位台北市長候選人蔣萬安、陳時中和黃珊珊，與其「合作宣傳的市 議員候選人」，該如何將三位市長候選人的選舉效益最大化從而當選。對此，本文提出三項核心的問題意識：「三位台北市長候選人各自的「合作宣傳策略」特色為何？」；「本文所建構之『當選指標』是否有助於預測選情？」；「各項『合作宣傳策略』中的勝選關鍵為何？」。而當選的七項指標與則包含：與同黨或相同理念議員合作宣傳比例；Meta 廣告檔案庫的廣告數據分析；將市長及議員候選人政見建模分析同一性；以 OpView 社群口碑資料庫分析網路輿情聲量和情感分析；透過共同的新聞數據進行社會網絡和語意網絡分析。 研究結果發現，三位台北市長候選人各自的「合作宣傳策略」：蔣萬安側重於 「新聞」的製造上，達到大量的曝光，並在臉書上持續保持「高好感度」創造出「高支持」；陳時中的臉書聲量製造，在網路輿情和臉書廣告投放層面皆高於其他兩位候選人，但伴隨而來的是好感度的下降，導致其負面聲量仍佔多數；黃珊珊「政見同一 性」是三者中最高的，顯見其合作宣傳策略將重點放於政見內容之上。總體得分上陳時中最高分，但加上情緒好感度加權後則由蔣萬安獲得第一，顯見選民的「情緒好感 度」才是合作宣傳策略中的勝選關鍵，且本研究所建構的當選指標量表與實際得票率 比例有高度相似。
    Elections in Taiwan often employ the coattail effect as a major strategy. However, our study is more interested in how the city councilor candidates maximize the electoral benefits of the three Taipei mayor candidates (Chiang Wayne, Chen Shih-Chung, and Huang Shanshan) and try to help them win the election. With this in mind, we have proposed three core questions: What are the characteristics of each candidate's "cooperative campaign strategy"? Do the selected indicators constructed in this article help predict the election outcome? What are the key factors in winning the election under various cooperative campaign strategies? The seven indicators include the proportion of them cooperating with party members of the same party or ideology, analysis of advertising data from their Meta advertising archives, modeling, and analysis of the degree of consistency between their political views and relevant city councilor candidates, analysis of their network public opinion and sentiment through the OpView, and analysis of their social and semantic networks through common news data. The results indicate the respective "cooperative campaign strategies" of the three Taipei mayoral candidates. Chiang focused on generating news to achieve a large amount of exposure and continued to maintain high favorability on Facebook to create strong support. Chen’s Facebook volume was higher than the other two candidates in terms of internet public opinion and Facebook advertising, but it was accompanied by a decline in favorability, resulting in his negative sentiment still accounting for the majority. Huang's consistency of political views was the highest among the three, which shows that her cooperative campaign strategy is mainly based on political views. Overall, Chen scored the highest, but after factoring in emotional favorability, Chiang won first place. It’s obvious that voter emotional favorability is the key factor in winning the election under cooperative campaign strategies. It’s worth noting that the selected indicator scale we constructed is highly correlated with the actual percentage of votes.
    關聯: 2023年中華傳播學會年會, 中華傳播學會
    数据类型: conference
    显示于类别:[傳播學院博士班] 會議論文

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