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| Title: | 情感極化與投票抉擇：2021年公民投票之分析
Examining Affective Polarization and Voting Behavior: A Study of the 2021 Referenda in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 陳冠臻
Chen, Guan-Zhen |
| Contributors: | 陳陸輝
Chen, Lu-Huei
陳冠臻
Chen, Guan-Zhen |
| Keywords: | 情感極化
2021年台灣公投
投票動員
投票選擇
Affective polarization
2021 referenda in Taiwan
Voter mobilization
Voter choice |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 15:58:53 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文檢視選民對政黨的情感極化程度，對其公民投票中的投票意願與投票選擇之影響。由於台灣處於兩大黨競爭的政治環境，在2021年公投中，即便公投是針對議題的選擇，但從四個表決案中的提案者背景、政黨菁英辯論過程與政黨在各平台的動員行動，皆可見政黨試圖在非一般選舉中施展其影響力。其中，政黨支持者正是最受政黨影響的群體，政黨認同者容易因為長期支持特定政黨，產生對於偏好政黨與對立政黨的情感差異。然而，在政黨的介入下，本次公投的投票率卻僅有41%，代表有一部分的政黨認同者並未在公投中因動員而參與投票。因此本文欲探究國民黨與民進黨選民對政黨之間的情感極化程度，是否為導致支持者被動員與否的主要原因，以及情感極化是否與其投票選擇有關。
本研究的資料來源為「台灣選舉與民主化調查」之「2021公民投票網路民調實驗平台調查案」，並以國民黨與民進黨認同者作為分析對象。
本文發現，情感極化程度愈高的選民，其立場將更往其偏好政黨主張的立場靠攏。高情感極化不僅提升選民投票意願，同時使選民的議題態度更貼近其偏好政黨的立場。故情感是影響藍綠選民投票行為的重要因素。除了情感極化外，其他重要且常見的政治態度與社會背景變數亦於投票行為中發揮影響，如在投票參與模型中，議題態度、政治興趣、過去投票經驗、性別與年齡皆顯著影響選民投票意願。而政治信任、對總統執政表現的滿意度、統獨立場與身分認同也是構成選民整體投票立場之因素。
This paper examines the impact of voters' affective polarization towards political parties on their voting participation and choice in referendums. Given Taiwan's political environment characterized by competition between two major parties, the 2021 referendum, although issue-based, saw clear attempts by political parties to exert influence. This is evident in the backgrounds of the proposers of the four ballot initiatives, the debates among party elites, and the mobilization efforts by the parties across various platforms. Party supporters are particularly susceptible to such influence, as those with strong party identification tend to develop emotional differences between their preferred party and opposing parties. However, despite party interventions, voter turnout in this referendum was only 41%, indicating that some party identifiers were not mobilized. This study seeks to explore whether the degree of affective polarization between Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) voters is a key factor influencing voter mobilization and whether this polarization is related to their voting choices.
The data for this research comes from the "2021 Referendum Internet Survey Experiment Platform" under the "Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study" (TEDS), focusing on KMT and DPP voters. The findings indicate that as the degree of affective polarization increases, voters' positions align more closely with the stances of their preferred party. High affective polarization not only enhances voting intention but also aligns voters' issue attitudes more closely with those of their preferred party. Therefore, emotion plays a crucial role in influencing the voting behavior of blue and green camp voters. In addition to affective polarization, other significant and common political attitudes and social background variables also impact voting behavior. In the voting participation model, factors such as issue attitudes, political interest, past voting experience, gender, and age significantly affect voter turnout. Moreover, political trust, satisfaction with the president's performance, positions on unification versus independence, and Taiwanese/Chinese identity are also factors shaping voters' overall voting positions. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
政治學系
109252015 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109252015 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [政治學系] 學位論文
|
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| 201501.pdf | | 3349Kb | Adobe PDF | 0 | View/Open |
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