English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 113656/144643 (79%)
Visitors : 51713768      Online Users : 687
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153516


    Title: 北韓核武導彈戰略研究—戰爭邊緣策略分析
    A Study on North Korea's Nuclear Weapon and Tactical Ballistic Missile Strategy: Brinkmanship Strategy Analysis
    Authors: 戴慎昌
    Dai, Sheng-Chang
    Contributors: 邱坤玄
    戴慎昌
    Dai, Sheng-Chang
    Keywords: 北韓
    核武導彈戰略
    戰爭邊緣策略
    核子擴散
    現實主義
    安全困境
    嚇阻理論
    博弈理論
    Date: 2024
    Issue Date: 2024-09-04 15:53:44 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究探討北韓的核武導彈戰略,聚焦於其戰爭邊緣策略(Brinkmanship Strategy)及其對國際安全、地區穩定、核子擴散和經濟制裁與人道影響的多重面向。北韓的核武計畫不僅對東北亞構成重大威脅,亦對全球核不擴散體系帶來挑戰。在俄烏戰爭背景下,北韓與俄羅斯關係的強化進一步增加了國際社會的戰略壓力。北韓透過核試爆和導彈試驗行為,來實現其外交和內政目標,本研究藉以揣測北韓領導人的真實意圖,並提供國際社會應對北韓威脅的策略方法。
    本研究透過現實主義、安全困境、嚇阻理論和博弈理論等國際關係理論,分析北韓的行為模式和策略選擇。從歷史的軌跡發展,分為金日成、金正日和金正恩三個時期,並對每個時期的政策變化和戰略目標進行詳細分析。此外,也探討了北韓戰爭邊緣策略的發展歷史背景,主要集中在美朝框架協議、六方會談及朝鮮半島核問題的升級三個階段,同時也分析了各國對北韓核武能力之應對態度,包括美國、日本、南韓、中國和俄羅斯的立場及其政策反應。這些國家的反應是由安全關切、戰略利益和區域利益共同決定的,並反映了國際秩序的影響。北韓的核武和導彈發展對地區安全和國際核不擴散體系構成嚴重挑戰,並引發了周邊國家的軍備競賽和安全困境。
    Reference: 中文部分
    專書
    呂亞力,1994。《政治學》。臺北:三民書局。
    李明著,1998。《南北韓政經發展與東北亞安全》。台中:五南圖書出版股份有限公司。
    林秋山著,2013。《經驗兩韓》。臺北:林秋山。
    吳明上、蔡裕明、唐仁俊、顧立民、李黎明、黃虹堯、劉文祥著,1998。《新戰略論》。台中:五南圖書出版股份有限公司。
    倪世雄著,2017。《當代國際關係理論》。台中:五南圖書出版股份有限公司。
    專書譯著
    Graham Allison著,包淳亮譯,2019。《注定一戰?中美能否避免修昔底德陷阱》(DESTINED FOR WAR:Can America and China Escape Thucydides Trap?)。臺北:八旗文化。
    Jon C. Pevehous, Joshua S. Goldstein著,歐信宏、胡祖慶譯,2017。《國際關係-四版》(International Relations)。臺北:雙葉書廊。
    Joseph S. Nye, David A. Welch著,張小明譯,2021。《哈佛最熱門的國際關係課》(Understanding Global Conflict and Cooperation: An Introduction to Theory and History,)。臺北:商業週刊。
    Thomas C. Schelling著,徐孟豪譯,2001。《武備的影響力》(Arms and Influence)。臺北:國防部部長辦公室。
    Yossef Bodansky著,新新聞編譯小組,1994。《北韓危機-金正日之死與核武威脅之效應》。臺北:新新聞文化。
    Zbigniew Brzezinski著,林添貴譯,2021。《大棋盤:全球戰略大思考》(The Grand Chessboard)。新北:立緒文化。
    牧野愛博著,林蘶翰譯,2018。《金正恩的外交遊戲:你不知的北韓核武真相》。臺北:八旗文化。
    期刊論文
    水野聖紹,2003。〈美伊戰爭後之北韓核武問題:外交斡旋抑或武力解決?〉《展望與探索》, 第1卷第9期,頁86-100。
    田家綺,2013。〈北韓戰爭邊緣策略及其對亞太安全之影響〉《國防雜誌》,第28卷第4期,頁21-40。
    朱松柏,1997。〈金正日接班與北韓政局展望〉《問題與研究》,第36卷第12期,頁37-49。
    李明,2003。〈北韓核武危機的意義與發展〉《海峽評論》,第147期,頁4-6。
    李明,2005。〈解決朝鮮核武危機的前景〉《海峽評論》,第177期,頁9-11。
    李明,2019。〈川金二會後的東北亞局勢〉《展望與探索月刊》,第17卷第4期,頁1-9。
    沈明室,2006。〈北韓藉核試爆遂行戰爭邊緣策略的成敗與發展〉《戰略安全研析》,第19期,頁17-20。
    邱坤玄,2010。〈中國在周邊地區的多邊外交理論與實踐〉《遠景基金會季刊》,第11卷第4期,頁1-41。
    林泰和,2017。〈北韓的核武外交〉《展望與探索月刊》,第15卷第10期,頁39-46。
    胡敏遠,2006。〈美國在北韓 [六方會談] 中的角色分析: 霸權穩定論的觀點〉《國防雜誌》,第21卷第1期,頁30-40。
    胡敏遠,2019。〈北韓核武危機: 川普強制外交策略之分析〉《遠景基金會季刊》,第20卷第3期,頁101-150。
    馬準威,2018。〈從 [嚇阻理論] 與 [螺旋模式] 檢視北韓第四次至第六次核試爆之間的美朝戰略互動〉《問題與研究》,第57卷第4期,頁27-64。
    陳曉杭,2007。〈北韓共產制度實施現況與核武危機演變之探討〉《展望與探索月刊》,第5卷第3期,頁84-103。
    張少文,2019。〈朝核問題的現況與未來〉《韓國學報》,第36期,頁189-212。
    張登及,2004。〈中共朝鮮半島戰略偏好架構試擬〉《展望與探索月刊》,第2卷第5期,頁110-114。
    楊志恆,2017。〈美在南韓部署薩德對美 [中] 關係衝擊評述〉《展望與探索月刊》,第15卷第4期,頁32-38。
    鄭憲周 & 芮宗泰,2016。〈金正恩時期中國投資北韓的理由〉《全球政治評論》,頁67-79。
    廖小娟,2005。〈中共與北韓的雙邊關係-以兩次核武危機的處理檢視〉《展望與探索月刊》,第3卷第5期,頁34-47。
    廖文義,2008。〈北韓核問題與 [六方會談]: 回顧 分析與展望〉《通識研究集刊》,第14期,頁31-56。
    廖清華, 陳詵蔚, 許惠淑, 洪培鈞, & 黃明傑,2005。〈北韓核議題與六方會談之展望〉《復興崗學報》,第84期,頁209-239。
    蔡東杰,2013。〈朝鮮半島危機之區域戰略意涵分析〉《全球政治評論》,第42期,頁23-38。
    劉宗翰,2018。〈北韓立國之道對韓鮮半島安全情勢之影響〉《海軍學術雙月刊》,第52卷第4期,頁107-120。
    劉德海,2009。〈從北韓退出六方會談析東北亞局勢〉《展望與探索月刊》,第7卷第5期,頁27-31。
    劉德海,2018。〈川金會後朝鮮半島情勢發展對東北亞之影響〉《展望與探索月刊》,第16卷第7期,頁1-6。
    錢尹鑫,2018。〈北韓軍武威脅下的東北亞安全情勢〉《展望與探索月刊》,第16卷第10期,頁71-93。
    盧業中,2013。〈北韓第三次核試對東北亞局勢之影響〉《展望與探索月刊》,第11卷第3期,頁16-23。
    盧業中,2015。〈當前朝鮮半島的安全困境-以 2010 年天安艦事件以來為例〉《遠景基金會季刊》,第16卷第1期,頁143-184。
    盧業中,2019。〈霸權國家與核武發展: 論東北亞的安全情勢〉《遠景基金會季刊》,第20卷第3期,頁55-99。
    鍾永和,2017。〈北韓研發導彈及核武之概念與影響〉《海軍學術雙月刊》,第51卷第6期,頁85-96。


    網際網路
    BBC NEWS中文,2012/9/18。〈俄勾銷朝110億欠債意擴大地區影響〉,< https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2012/09/120918_russian_korea_debt>。
    BBC NEWS中文,2013/5/23。〈美國金融制裁朝鮮國際救援機構斷糧〉,<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2013/05/130523_northkorea_aidagencies_us>。
    中央通訊社,2024/4/12。〈美日韓舉行聯合海上軍演因應平壤核武及飛彈威脅〉《中央通訊社》,<https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202404120229.aspx>。
    黃彥棻,2015/1/9。〈索尼影業遭駭事件始末大剖析〉《Thome》,<https://www.ithome.com.tw/news/93457>。
    高紹沖,2024/7/2。〈「朝俄軍事同盟」赫然成形:烏俄的戰火,會延燒到東亞嗎?〉《換日線Crossing》,<https://crossing.cw.com.tw/article/19035>。
    秦軒,2016/2/19。〈關閉開城工業園,制裁只是開始〉《端傳媒》,<https://theinitium.com/article/20160219-international-Kaesongshutdown>。
    新浪新聞網,2006/5/20。〈北韓表示因為缺乏信任,將延後六方會談復會時間〉《新浪新聞網》,<https://web.archive.org/web/20220403201238/http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2003-09-03/1522683600s.shtml>。
    新華網,2007/2/13。〈第五輪六方會談第三階段會議共同文件(全文)〉《新浪新聞網》,<https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2007-02-13/194012309411.shtml>。
    維基百科,2024/5/20。〈火星14彈道飛彈〉《維基百科》,<https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/火星14彈道飛彈>。
    寧夏日報,2005/12/30。〈美國指責北韓造假美鈔〉《新浪新聞網》,<http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2005-12-30/09187858172s.shtml>。
    德國之聲中文網,2023/12/3。〈北韓經濟特區有望在新的對俄貿易中復興〉《德國之聲中文網》,< https://www.dw.com/zh-hant/北韓經濟特區有望在新的對俄貿易中復興/a-67584982>。
    嚴國群,2003/9/3。〈六方會談開了個好頭〉《新浪新聞網》,<https://web.archive.org/web/20220403201238/http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2003-09-03/1522683600s.shtml>。


    英文部分
    書籍
    Herz, J. H., 1951. Political Realism and Political Idealism: A Study in Theories and Realities. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    Jervis, R., 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
    Neumann, J. von, & Morgenstern, O., 1944. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
    Ragin, C. C., & Becker, H. S., 1992. What is Case? Exploring the Foundations of Social Inquiry. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    Schelling, T., 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven: Yale University Press.
    Schelling, T., 1981. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
    Yin, R. K., 2009. Case Study Research: Design and Methods (4th ed.). Los Angeles: SAGE Publications.
    期刊
    Lai, M. W., 2020. &quot;The Boy Who Cried Wolf: North Korea's Nuclear Tests and Their Implications for Regional Stability,&quot; 國家發展研究, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 1-33.
    Reitz, A., 2021. &quot;Influence Mechanisms: A Framework for Integrated Operations,&quot; Small Wars Journal.
    網際網路
    Allison, G. (1971). Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Little Brown and Company. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://www.britannica.com/event/Cuban-missile-crisis.
    Arms Control Association. (2023). Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy. Retrieved June 7, 2024, from https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron
    Arms Control Association. (n.d.). IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano’s Statement on the DPRK’s Announcement of a Nuclear Test. Retrieved May 21, 2024, from https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-director-general-yukiya-amano%E2%80%99s-statement-dprk%E2%80%99s-announcement-nuclear-test.
    Arms Control Association. (n.d.). UN Security Council Resolutions on North Korea. Retrieved May 21, 2024, from https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/UN-Security-Council-Resolutions-on-North-Korea.
    Arms Control Association. (2023). North Korea Plans to Expand Nuclear Arsenal. Retrieved May 21, 2024, from https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-01/news/north-korea-plans-expand-nuclear-arsenal.
    Arms Control Association. (2024). The Six-Party Talks at a Glance. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/6partytalks.
    Britannica. (2024). Security Dilemma. Retrieved May 21, 2024, from https://www.britannica.com/topic/security-dilemma.
    Britannica. (2024). Kim Jong-Un. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://www.britannica.com/biography/Kim-Jong-Eun.
    Britannica. (2024). Agreed Framework. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://www.britannica.com/event/Agreed-Framework.
    BBC NEWS. (n.d.). China presses South Korea on Thaad missile system. Retrieved May 21, 2024, from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39883804.
    Center for Strategic and International Studies Alliance Commission. (n.d.). North Korea Policy & Extended Deterrence. Retrieved May 22, 2024, from https://features.csis.org/north-korea-extended-deterrence.
    Center for Strategic and International Studies. (n.d.). Challenges to U.S. Extended Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula and Devising a Strengthened Allied Deterrence Strategy against North Korea. Retrieved May 22, 2024, from https://www.csis.org/analysis/challenges-us-extended-deterrence-korean-peninsula-and-devising-strengthened-allied.
    Council on Foreign Relations. (2024). Timeline: North Korean Nuclear Negotiations. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://www.cfr.org/timeline/north-korean-nuclear-negotiations.
    CSIS, (2016). China's Reaction to North Korea's Nuclear Test. Retrieved June 3, 2024, from https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-reaction-north-koreas-nuclear-test
    Facts and Details. (2024). Kim Jong Il's Leadership Style and Rise to Power. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://factsanddetails.com/search.html/keyword/Kim%20Jong%20Il%27s%20Leadership%20Style%20and%20Rise%20to%20Power/.
    History.com Editors. (2020). SALT agreements signed. HISTORY. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/salt-agreements-signed.
    History Hit. (2021). 10 Facts About Kim Jong-un Supreme Leader of North Korea. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://www.historyhit.com/10-facts-about-kim-jong-un-supreme-leader-of-north-korea/.
    International Institute for Strategic Studies. (n.d.). The surge of activity in relations between North Korea and Russia. Retrieved May 21, 2024, from https://www.iiss.org/en/publications/strategic-comments/2023/the-surge-of-activity-in-relations-between-north-korea-and-russia.
    KBS World. (2010). Lee Myung-bak Government and North Korea: First Two Years. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/contents_view.htm?menu_cate=northkorea&board_seq=147530&page=59&board_code=oth_tnt.
    Lee, Myung-Bak Administration's North Korea Policy: Challenges and Tasks. (2008). Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://www.jstor.org/stable/23257896.
    Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan (2024). North Korea’s Nuclear and Missile Issues. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/n_korea/nuclear/index.html
    NCNK. (2024). Agreed Framework Text. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://www.ncnk.org/resources/publications/AgreedFrameworkText.pdf.
    NDI. (2015). NDI Remembers Former South Korean President Kim Young Sam. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://www.ndi.org/NDI-mourns-Kim-Yong-sam.
    The Diplomat. (2017). The Calculated Logic Behind North Korea’s Missile Tests. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/the-calculated-logic-behind-north-koreas-missile-tests/.
    The Diplomat. (2021)South Korea and US Reach Agreement on Defense Cost Sharing. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/south-korea-and-us-reach-agreement-on-defense-cost-sharing/
    United Nations Security Council. (2013). Resolution 2094 (2013). Retrieved June 3, 2024, from https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n13/253/05/pdf/n1325305.pdf?token=qkCd00TQuD2TOSoGTm&fe=true
    UN Peacemaker. (1991). Agreement on Reconciliation Non-Aggression and Exchanges and Cooperation between South and North Korea. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://peacemaker.un.org/korea-reconciliation-nonaggression91.
    United States Institute of Peace, (2017). China’s Evolving North Korea Strategy. Retrieved June 3, 2024, from https://www.usip.org/publications/2017/09/chinas-evolving-north-korea-strategy
    U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION, (2022). The China-North Korea Strategic Rift: Background and Implications for the United States. Retrieved June 3, 2024, from https://www.uscc.gov/research/china-north-korea-strategic-rift-background-and-implications-united-states
    Wikipedia. (2024). Agreed Framework. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreed_Framework.
    Wikipedia. (2024). North Korea and Weapons of Mass Destruction. Retrieved June 7, 2024, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
    Wikipedia. (2024). Six-party talks. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-party_talks.
    Yahoo NEWS, (2024). Kim Jong-un declares South Korea his No 1 enemy and orders father’s unification arch be destroyed. Retrieved June 5, 2024, from https://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/kim-jong-un-declares-south-114750931.html?guccounter=1
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班
    105922019
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105922019
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班] 學位論文

    Files in This Item:

    File SizeFormat
    201901.pdf2239KbAdobe PDF0View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback