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    题名: 台灣總體政策對勞動市場影響之動態隨機一般均衡模型分析
    Effects of Government Policy on the Labor Market: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis
    作者: 陳俐安
    Chen, Li-An
    贡献者: 朱琇妍
    Chu, Shiou-Yen
    陳俐安
    Chen, Li-An
    关键词: 動態隨機一般均衡模型
    搜索與配對模型
    勞動市場摩擦
    財政政策
    Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model
    Search and matching model
    Labor market frictions
    Fiscal policy
    日期: 2024
    上传时间: 2024-09-04 14:44:16 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 勞動力做為重要生產要素與經濟發展息息相關，然而台灣勞動市場受限於法規，流動性相較商品與資金市場低，且面臨人口少子化與高齡化的結構性問題，加上價值觀念轉變與非典型就業形態興盛，增加勞工尋職的考量與議價能力，而勞動市場摩擦增加將可能對政府政策的執行與效果造成影響。本文建立一個動態隨機一般均衡模型（Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model, DSGE Model），加入勞動市場搜尋與配對設定（Search and Matching），引入失業、職缺發布成本與薪資議價等勞動市場摩擦，以模擬台灣勞動市場面對經濟衝擊與各項政府政策的影響。根據模擬結果，降低勞動市場摩擦有助於刺激產出與消費，並降低失業率與通膨。政府升息之貨幣政策因利息收入增加家計單位可支配所得反而提高消費，並透過影響預期利益導致薪資上升而惡化通膨。財政政策方面，調升消費稅、調降所得稅與增加政府支出均有利於增加產出並降低失業，然而政府支出增加與消費稅調升降低實質所得導致消費減少，而政府支出增加與所得稅調降增加資本財需求，推高邊際成本下造成通膨。
    As a crucial factor of production, the labor force is intricately linked to economic development. However, Taiwan's labor market faces constraints due to regulatory restrictions and exhibits lower liquidity compared to other markets. Additionally, structural issues such as the declining birthrate, aging population, evolving values, and the rise of non-standard employment forms have exacerbated labor market frictions, potentially impacting the effectiveness of government policies. This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model incorporating labor market search and matching mechanisms to simulate Taiwan's labor market. The model introduces frictions like unemployment, job vacancy posting costs, and wage bargaining. The findings suggest that reducing labor market frictions can stimulate economic activity by lowering unemployment and inflation. Monetary policy involving rising interest rates might boost consumption through increased interest income but could also worsen inflation due to higher wage rates, which are influenced by household expectations. Fiscal policies, such as increasing the consumption tax rate, lowering income tax rates, and expanding government expenditure, can enhance output and reduce unemployment. However, increased government spending and higher consumption taxes reduce real income, leading to decreased consumption, while higher government spending and lower income taxes boost demand for capital, raising marginal costs and contributing to inflation.
    參考文獻: 中央銀行（2023）。當前主要經濟體勞動市場變化對薪資、通膨之影響及貨幣政策展望。2023年9月23日。取自：https://knowledge.cbc.gov.tw/front/references/inpage/8672597E-2258-EE11-90F2-00505694F3B3
    黃俞寧（2013）。動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用。中央銀行季刊，35（1），3-34。
    蔡宜展、姚睿、秦國軒、林世揚（2022）。建構中大型DSGE-VAR模型－台灣中長期經濟成長率預測。中央銀行季刊，44（2），27-69。
    管中閔、印永翔、姚睿、黃朝熙、徐之強、陳宜廷（2010）。臺灣動態隨機一般均衡模型 (DSGE) 建立與政策評估。行政院經濟建設委員會。
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政學系
    109255033
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109255033
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[財政學系] 學位論文

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