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| Title: | 總體經濟變數對經濟成長影響之研究﹕以香港及新加坡為例
The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore |
| Authors: | 沈鎧翎
Sum, Hoi-Ling |
| Contributors: | 洪福聲
林朕陞
Hung, Fu-Sheng
Lin, Chen-Sheng
沈鎧翎
Sum, Hoi-Ling |
| Keywords: | 經濟成長
總體經濟指標
香港
新加坡
Economics Growth
Macroeconomic Indicators
Hong Kong
Singapore |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 14:01:01 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 香港及新加坡皆曾為英國殖民地，而兩個經濟體的歷史及經濟發展進程均非常相似，並且，它們的經濟狀況與金融發展亦非常成熟。為了解這兩個經濟體的異同，本文整理了不同的文獻，及收集各總體經濟指標的數據，從而研究影響香港及新加坡經濟發展的因素，並找出這兩個經濟體各自的特色。
在實證模型上，本文分別使用了香港及新加坡（1998至2022年）的數據，先進行單根檢定，確保數據為定態數列，再進行迴歸分析。研究結果顯示，在香港方面，取自然對數的期初人均GDP、實質國際貿易增長率、貨幣供給量增長率、實質外人投資增長率及落後一期的實質人均GDP增長率呈正向影響，而消通貨膨脹率及虛擬變數 （2008年金融海嘯），則對經濟成長呈負向影響。此外，實質政府支出增長率、勞動力增長率及實質固定資本形成增長率則對經濟成長帶來不顯著的影響；而在新加坡方面，實質外人投資增長率、實質固定資本形成增長率、實質國際貿易增長率及落後一期的實質人均GDP增長率對經濟成長呈正向影響，而虛擬變數 （2008年金融海嘯）則對經濟成長呈負向影響。此外，實質政府支出增長率、勞動力增長率、取自然對數的期初人均GDP、貨幣供給量增長率及通貨膨脹率的變動則對經濟成長並未帶來顯著的影響。由此可見，兩個經濟體的經濟發展因素並不相同，各有其獨特性。
Both Hong Kong and Singapore are British colonies, the history and the economic development progress of both economies are similar, and their economic and financial conditions are developed maturely. In order to know the similarities and differences of two economies, this thesis consolidated the result of different research articles, and collected the data of different economic indicators so as to explore the effect of different macroeconomic indicators on economic growth, as well as their characteristics. For the empirical model, the data of Hong Kong and Singapore (1998-2022) are collected respectively. Before conducting the regression analysis, the unit root test is carried out in order to ensure that the data are in stationary status, and the real GDP growth rate is chosen to be the dependent variable of the model.
For the model of Hong Kong, the result shows that the logged initial per capita GDP, real international trade growth rate, money supply growth rate, real foreign investment growth rate and per capital real GDP growth rate (last period) are positively related to economic development, but inflation rate and dummy variable (2008 Financial Crisis) have negative effect on the economic growth. Besides, government expenditure growth rate, labour force growth rate and fixed capital formation growth rate does not have any significant effect on the economic growth.
For the model of Singapore, the real foreign investment growth rate, real fixed capital formation growth rate, real international trade growth rate and per capita real GDP growth rate (last period) have positive effect on the economic growth of the economy, but dummy variable (2008 Financial Crisis) brings negative effect on economic growth. Besides, real government expenditure growth rate, labour force growth rate, logged initial per capita GDP, money supply growth rate and the change of inflation rate do not have any significant effect on the economic growth. Therefore, it is concluded that economic development factors of two economies are different, and they have their own characteristics. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際金融碩士學位學程
111ZB1058 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111ZB1058 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際金融碩士學位學程] 學位論文
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