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| Title: | 2018年股利稅改新制對除息日股價行為的影響
Impact of the 2018 Dividend Tax Reform on Ex-dividend Day Stock Price Behavior |
| Authors: | 李琪
LEE, CHI |
| Contributors: | 盧敬植
Lu, Ching-Chih
李琪
CHI LEE |
| Keywords: | 股利稅改新制
除息日
超額報酬
除息日價格下跌率
Dividend Tax Reform
Ex-Dividend Day
Abnormal Return
Price Drop Ratio |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-08-05 13:41:46 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究以2018年股利稅改新制為研究主題，延續林世銘等(2001)與Chen et al.(2013)針對1998年兩稅合一制的探討，觀察2018年股利稅改對除息日股價行為的影響，並試圖找出影響除息日股價行為的因素。
實證結果顯示，在2018年稅改後，除息日價格下跌率(Price Drop Ratio, PDR)顯著增加而相對於市場報酬的超額報酬(Abnormal Return, AR)則顯著減少，表示除息當日的買盤力道減弱，填息幅度減小。由於股息所得稅為參與股息捕獲交易的成本之一，稅率越高的投資者成本越大，越不易自股息捕獲交易中獲利。研究顯示，於兩稅合一制實施年間，所得稅級距12%以下的個人投資者在進行股息捕獲交易時，平均都能拿到大於零的超額報酬(q)；在2018年股利稅改新制實施後，無論是哪一種所得稅級距的個人投資者，都無法通過先買後賣的股息捕獲交易獲取利潤。
為探討影響PDR的重要因素，本研究以2018年為基準設立虛擬變數，並以股息殖利率、股票波動度、公司股權結構為控制變數對PDR做多元迴歸。結果顯示，2018年制度改革後的PDR顯著大於改革以前的年份，股息殖利率、股票波動度與PDR呈現正相關，而持股比率對PDR的影響較無規律可循。進一步使用Chow Test檢視2018年的制度改革會不會對上述迴歸式的係數有所影響，結果顯示2018年的制度改革造成了結構性的改變，迴歸係數有所不同。
This study investigates the effects of the 2018 dividend tax reform on stock price behavior on ex-dividend days, building on prior research by Lin et al.(2001)and Chen et al.(2013)concerning the 1998 imputation tax system.
The empirical results show that after the 2018 tax reform, the Price Drop Ratio(PDR)on ex-dividend days significantly increased, while the Abnormal Return(AR)relative to market returns significantly decreased. Considering transaction costs and dividend tax rates, the marginal tax rate for investors who could profit from "dividend capture trading" decreased from 12% during the imputation tax system years to 0% in the years following the 2018 tax reform.
To explore the key factors affecting the PDR, this study uses a dummy variable for 2018 as a baseline, and conducts a multiple regression analysis on the PDR using dividend yield, stock volatility, and company ownership structure as control variables. The results indicate that the PDR after the 2018 reform is significantly higher than in previous years, with dividend yield and stock volatility positively correlated with the PDR, while the impact of ownership ratio on the PDR is inconsistent. Further, using the Chow Test to examine whether the 2018 reform caused structural changes in the regression coefficients, the results show that the 2018 reform indeed caused structural changes, resulting in different regression coefficients. |
| Reference: | 李存修.(1994). 股票股利除權交易日之稅後超額報酬與比價心理假說之實證. 台大管理論叢, 第五卷第一期, 頁 41－60.
林世銘、陳明進、李存修.(2001). 兩稅合一前後上市公司除權及除息日股價行為之探討. 管理學報, 第十八卷第三, 頁 477-501.
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
111357005 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111357005 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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