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| Title: | COVID-19 疫情前後，中國簽署貨幣互換協議的影響因素變化
The Shift in Influencing Factors on China's Bilateral Swap Lines ──Pre and Post the COVID-19 Pandemic |
| Authors: | 陳湘琦
Chen, Hsiang-Chi |
| Contributors: | 朴民佑
Park, Minwoo
陳湘琦
Chen, Hsiang-Chi |
| Keywords: | 中國貨幣互換協議
Probit 模型
COVID-19 疫情
China’s Swap Line
Probit model
COVID-19 pandemic |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-08-05 11:56:22 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究以Probit模型探討COVID-19疫情前後，中國簽署貨幣互換協議的影響因素變化，透過納入2020年後的數據並補充先前文獻較少探討的一帶一路倡議影響，旨在為研究中國貨幣互換協議的近年發展趨勢做出貢獻。
研究結果顯示，以下因素在疫情前後沒有顯著改變，持續為中國考量重點：中國更偏好與金融較封閉的國家簽署貨幣互換協議；貿易關係緊密的國家更易簽署協議；軍事合作關係始終是重要影響因素；經濟規模大且人均收入高的國家反映更多貿易機會，亦會增添簽署動機。
而疫情前後能觀察到的變化因素為是否加入一帶一路倡議及夥伴國與中國的距離。疫情前，加入一帶一路的國家更有可能簽署貨幣互換協議，但疫情後此影響變得不顯著。相反地，疫情前距離對簽署協議影響不大，而疫情後，中國更傾向於與距離較近的國家簽署協議。這反映中國在疫情後對於向各國提供流動性增添更廣泛的意願，作為全球最後貸款人角色的重要性上升，並隱含著依循地理距離由近到遠強化區域影響力的意圖。
This study uses a Probit model to examine the factors influencing China's Swap Line agreements before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. By incorporating data post-2020 and exploring the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative, this research aims to highlight recent trends in China's Swap Line agreements.
The results indicate that several factors remained consistent before and after the pandemic: China prefers financially closed countries, countries with close trade relationships, and those with military cooperation. Additionally, large economies and high per capita income continue to motivate agreements.
Changes observed include the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative and distance. Before the pandemic, countries in the Initiative were more likely to sign swap lines, but this became insignificant afterward. Conversely, China showed a greater tendency to sign agreements with closer countries post-pandemic. This shift reflects China's increased willingness to provide liquidity globally, enhancing its role as the lender of last resort and strengthening regional influence. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
111351017 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111351017 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文
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