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    題名: 總統與市長：中央表現評價與地方表現評價選舉效應之研究
    President and Mayor: Electoral Impacts of Evaluations of Central Government and Local Government
    作者: 游清鑫
    貢獻者: 選研中心
    關鍵詞: 總統選舉;市長選舉;選舉興衰;公民複決;平衡觀點
    presidential election;mayoral election;surge and decline;referendum;balancing
    日期: 2020-10
    上傳時間: 2024-07-01 15:30:41 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本計畫目的是要分析總統的整體表現對2018年直轄市長選舉的影響，以及直轄市長的整體表現對2020年總統選舉的影響。透過選舉興衰觀點、公民複決觀點、政策平衡觀點、以及特定的全國性議題與地方性議題的分析，探索在2018年的直轄市長選舉時，總統的各方面的表現如何影響同黨直轄市長候選人的選舉命運，並以類似的考量，探索在2020年總選舉時，直轄市長的各方面之表現如何影響同黨總統候選人的選舉結果。在有限的文獻研究中，多數認為總統任期中間的選舉結果總是不利總統所屬的政黨，這樣的論點在臺灣需要更嚴格的檢驗；同時，現有為數更少的文獻研究中，有關地方行政首長對總統選舉的影響究竟是正向、負向、還是無關重要，並沒有一致的看法，但這一討論在臺灣也沒有被仔細的驗證。在總統與立委併選、以及各類地方選舉併選後，總統選舉的時程與直轄市長選舉的時程間隔，也提供本計畫探索現任總統與現任市長分別影響同黨候選人在直轄市長選舉和總統選舉中的效應。
    This project aims at analyzing the impact of president’s overall performance on the election for metropolitan city mayor in 2018 on the one hand, and the impact of metropolitan city mayor’s overall performance on presidential election in 2020 on the other hand. By way of the perspectives of surge and decline, referendum, balancing, and specific national and local issues, it examines whether the impact of president’s performance is constructive or obstructive to her own party’s mayoral candidate, and in the same vein, examines the impacts of mayor’s performance to her own party’s presidential candidate. Existing literature has concluded a relatively negative impact of president’s performance on local elections. However, this proposition has not thoroughly verified in Taiwan. Meanwhile, there are short of consensus on the impact of mayor’s performance on presidential election, though the number of literature is far from abundant. Moreover, these findings are not subject to critical investigation. As the cycle of presidential election and legislative election has been synchronized into con-current elections, and all the local elections are synchronized likewise, this project takes this advantage of this new electoral cycle to explore the electoral impact of both the president and the mayor in Taiwan.
    關聯: 科技部, MOST107-2410-H004-139, 107.08-108.07
    資料類型: report
    顯示於類別:[選舉研究中心] 國科會研究計畫

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