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| Title: | 中國貧困縣經濟成長的評估 — 行政資料與光照資料的對比
Evaluating Economic Growth in China’s Poverty County: Contrasting Administrative Data with Nighttime Light Data |
| Authors: | 吳莉雯
Wu, Li-Wen |
| Contributors: | 胡偉民
黃柏鈞
Hu, Wei-Min
Huang, Po-Chun
吳莉雯
Wu, Li-Wen |
| Keywords: | 夜間光照
經濟成長
貧困縣政策
Nighttime light
Economic growth
Poverty county policies |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-06-03 11:46:20 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 在2012年，中國政府提出「2020年全面脫貧」的計劃，要求現有接受貧困縣政策的地方政府於2020年退出貧困縣名單，達到全中國脫離絕對貧困的目標。因此，脫離貧困縣成為接受扶助之地方政府的目標。
當地方政府存在目標，地方官員就有誇大經濟成長的誘因(Movshuk, 2002 ; Gilley, 2001)，造成虛假脫貧的現象。因此，本文參考並修改 Martínez (2022) 設計的模型，估計中國貧困縣與非貧困縣之間地區生產總值與夜間光照彈性的差異，推估中國貧困縣地方政府是否會因有來自中央政府的目標高報地區生產總值。
主要假設為在沒有官方操縱時，地區生產總值與夜間光照數據的彈性在各個縣市之間應一致。研究結果顯示在宣佈2020年全面脫貧的目標後，貧困縣高報的GDP比例約為23%，即貧困縣真實經濟成為率若為1%，則官方公佈之GDP成長約為1.23%。除此之外，事件分析法的研究結果也顯示，誇大的比例會隨著距離目標截止日越近而越高，該結果可以反映，目標到期日越近則政績壓力越大，政績壓力會成為地方政府官員誇大經濟成長的誘因。
In 2012, the Chinese government set the goal of " absolute poverty eliminated by 2020", which required local governments currently receiving poverty county policy support to be removed from the list of poverty counties by 2020. Consequently, exiting the poverty county status became the objective for local governments receiving assistance.
When local governments have targets, local officials have incentives to exaggerate economic growth (Movshuk, 2002; Gilley, 2001), resulting in the phenomenon of false poverty alleviation. Consequently, this paper references and modifies the model designed by Martínez (2022) to estimate the differences in the nighttime lights elasticity of GDP between poverty and non-poverty counties in China. This estimation assesses whether local governments in China's poverty counties are likely to overreport GDP due to targets set by the central government.
The primary assumption is that in the absence of official manipulation, the nighttime lights elasticity of GDP should be consistent across different counties. The result indicate that after the announcement of the comprehensive poverty alleviation goal for 2020, the proportion of GDP overstate by poverty counties was approximately 23%. This implies that if the actual economic growth rate in a poverty county is 1%, the officially reported GDP growth would be about 1.23%.
Furthermore, results from the event study method also show that the proportion of exaggeration increases as the deadline for the target approaches. This outcome reflects that the closer the deadline for the target, the greater the performance pressure on officials, which becomes an incentive for local government officials to exaggerate economic growth. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
111255017 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255017 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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