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| Title: | 胡錦濤與習近平時期的中俄關係與能源合作分析
An Analysis on China-Russia Relations and Energy Cooperation in the Era of Hu Jingtao and Xi Jingping |
| Authors: | 張季汝
Chang, Ji-Ru |
| Contributors: | 許菁芸
Hsu, Jing-Yun
張季汝
Chang, Ji-Ru |
| Keywords: | 胡錦濤
習近平
中俄關係
能源合作
新古典現實主義
Hu Jingtao
Xi Jinping
China-Russia relations
energy cooperation
neoclassical realism |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-10-03 |
| Abstract: | 有諸多因素影響中俄戰略協作夥伴關係與雙方能源合作的變化—國際環境因素主要源於中國與俄國分別在亞洲與歐洲不同情勢下，所面臨來自西方的壓力；國內因素主要為領導者意志與組織行為者的制度性行為，和雙方貿易與能源需求。本文探討胡錦濤與習近平時期的中俄關係與能源合作發展，以「新古典現實主義」作為主要框架來區分中俄合作的國內與國際因素；以「結構行動者模式」來分析中國領導人的對俄政策、中國的經濟概況與能源需求，及中俄（能源）貿易概況；其中，本文以胡錦濤時期的東西伯利亞-太平洋石油管道(ESPO)，以及習近平時期的西伯利亞力量(POS)1號和2號天然氣計劃作為中國與俄國大型能源合作項目的個案探討。本文亦以「組織行為模式」來分析包括「常委」在內的領導人權力運作系統，其透過的程序、常規和模式所進行的對俄合作。
本論文之研究發現：胡錦濤第一任期，中國面臨來自西方的壓力最小，中俄關係也最疏遠。在一般貿易上，俄國無論在進口或出口都較為依賴中國。在能源貿易方面，中國對俄國的石油進口需求相對較大。此時，國際對中俄能源進出口的限制，以及中國經濟發展對能源的需求是最小的時候。從常委對俄（能源）合作機制的種類及其運作頻率來看，胡錦濤第一任期時機制最少，且最不穩定。胡錦濤第二任期，中國面臨來自西方的壓力漸漸增強，中俄關係也變得稍加緊密。在一般貿易上，俄國無論在進口或出口都較為依賴中國。在能源貿易方面，中國與俄國對彼此石油進出口的需求相當。此時，國際對中俄能源進出口的限制是小的；中國經濟發展對能源的需求是大的。常委對俄（能源）合作開始出現新的機制，但尚未穩定。
習近平的第一任期，中國面臨來自西方的壓力又較前一階段大，且中俄關係是胡錦濤和習近平執政以來最緊密的時候。在一般貿易上，俄國無論在進口或出口都較為依賴中國。在能源貿易方面，俄國對中國的石油出口需求相對較大。此時，國際對中俄能源進出口的限制仍是小的；中國經濟發展對能源的需求仍是大的。常委對俄（能源）合作機制慢慢增加，並進入穩定階段。習近平第二任期，中國面臨來自西方的壓力最大，中俄關係較習近平第一任期時稍微不那麼緊密，但仍比胡錦濤第二任期時緊密。在一般貿易上，俄國無論在進口或出口都較為依賴中國。在能源貿易方面，俄國對中國的石油出口需求相對較大；中國則對俄國的天然氣進口需求相對較大。此時，國際環境對中國和俄國能源進出口的限制，以及中國因自身經濟發展對於能源的需求是胡錦濤與習近平執政以來最大的時候。但是常委對俄（能源）合作機制最多，且最穩定。
There are many factors impacting China-Russia relations. International environmental factors mainly stem from the different situations that China and Russia must face in Asia and Europe under the pressure of the Western countries. Domestic factors mainly include the leaders` will, the institutional behavior of organizational actors, and China and Russia`s trading and energy demand for each other. This study discusses China-Russia relations and the development of energy cooperation between China and Russia in the Era of Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping. The first approach, namely neoclassical realism, is applied as the main framework to distinguish the domestic and international factors. The second approach, namely the Agency-structure model, is applied to analyze the Chinese leader`s policy toward Russia, China`s economic overview and energy demand, and the China-Russia (energy) trading profile. In this paper, the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline (ESPO) in the Hu Jintao period and the Power of Siberia (POS)1 and 2 gas projects in the Xi Jinping period are discussed as the cases of large-scale energy cooperation projects between China and Russia. The third approach, namely the Institutional behavior model, is applied to analyze the processes, rules, and modes of cooperation with Russia in the power operation system of China`s leadership, including the Standing Committees in the Era of Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping.
The study reveals that in the first term of Hu Jintao, China confronts the least pressure from the West, and its relations with Russia are the most distant. Russia is more dependent on China in both import and export trading. As for energy trading, China`s demand for Russian oil imports is relatively high. At the time, the international restrictions on energy imports and exports between China and Russia, and the demand for energy in China`s economic development were the lowest. In terms of the types and operating frequency of the (energy) cooperation mechanisms of the Standing Committee with Russia, the mechanisms during Hu`s first term are the least and the most unstable. In the second term of Hu Jintao, China confronts increasing pressure from the West, and its relations with Russia have become slightly closer. Russia is more dependent on China in both import and export trading. As for energy trading, China and Russia have similar demands for each other`s oil imports and exports. At the time, the international restrictions on energy imports and exports between China and Russia were low, and China`s demand for energy in economic development was high. New mechanisms of (energy) cooperation of the Standing Committee with Russia began to emerge, yet not stable.
In the first term of Xi Jinping, China confronts greater pressure from the West than in the previous stage, and its relations with Russia are the closest since the administration of Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping. Russia is more dependent on China in both import and export trading. As for energy trading, Russia`s demand for Chinese oil exports is relatively high. At the time, the international restrictions on energy imports and exports between China and Russia were still low, and China`s demand for energy in economic development was still high. The mechanisms of (energy) cooperation of the Standing Committee with Russia have gradually increased and entered into a stable stage. In the second term of Xi Jinping, China confronts the biggest pressure from the West, and its relations with Russia are slightly less intense than they were during Xi `s first term, but still closer than they were during Hu`s second term. Russia is more dependent on China in both import and export trading. As for energy trading, Russia`s demand for Chinese oil exports is relatively high, and China`s demand for Russian gas pipeline imports is relatively high. At the time, the international restrictions on energy imports and exports between China and Russia and the demand for energy in China`s economic development were the highest. But the mechanisms of (energy) cooperation of the Standing Committee with Russia are the most and the most stable. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
東亞研究所
107260015 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107260015 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [東亞研究所] 學位論文
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